Figure 10.22

Figure 10.22. Projected CO2 emissions leading to stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at different levels and the effect of uncertainty in carbon cycle processes on calculated emissions. Panel (a) shows the assumed trajectories of CO2 concentration (SP scenarios)(Knutti et al., 2005); (b) and (c) show the implied CO2 emissions, as projected with the Bern2.5CC EMIC (Joos et al., 2001; Plattner et al., 2001). The ranges given in (b) for each of the SP scenarios represent effects of different model parametrizations and assumptions illustrated for scenario SP550 in panel (c) (range for ‘CO2 + climate’). The upper and lower bounds in (b) are indicated by the top and bottom of the shaded areas. Alternatively, the lower bound (where hidden) is indicated by a dashed line. Panel (c) illustrates emission ranges and sensitivities for scenario SP550.