Figure 9.12

Figure 9.12. Comparison of multi-model data set 20C3M model simulations containing all forcings (red shaded regions) and containing natural forcings only (blue shaded regions) with observed decadal mean temperature changes (°C) from 1906 to 2005 from the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set (HadCRUT3; Brohan et al., 2006). The panel labelled GLO shows comparison for global mean; LAN, global land; and OCE, global ocean data. Remaining panels display results for 22 sub-continental scale regions (see the Supplementary Material, Appendix 9.C for a description of the regions). This figure is produced identically to FAQ 9.2, Figure 1 except sub-continental regions were used; a full description of the procedures for producing FAQ 9.2, Figure 1 is given in the Supplementary Material, Appendix 9.C . Shaded bands represent the middle 90% range estimated from the multi-model ensemble. Note that the model simulations have not been scaled in any way. The same simulations are used as in Figure 9.5 (58 simulations using all forcings from 14 models, and 19 simulations using natural forcings only from 5 models). Each simulation was sampled so that coverage corresponds to that of the observations, and was centred relative to the 1901 to 1950 mean obtained by that simulation in the region of interest. Observations in each region were centred relative to the same period. The observations in each region are generally consistent with model simulations that include anthropogenic and natural forcings, whereas in many regions the observations are inconsistent with model simulations that include natural forcings only. Lines are dashed where spatial coverage is less than 50%.