With the exception of Chapter and Section headings, all coloured text has been inserted by AccessIPCC. The non-coloured text is the IPCC original.

A number of emails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia were published on the Internet in November 2009. This has provided a window into the world of climate science.

We have identified a number of key individuals involved in the emails whom we have designated as Persons of Concern [PoC]; a Journal in which a PoC has published has been designated as a Journal of Concern [JoC].

This is not to suggest that we believe such papers are necessarily flawed, but rather that, as Joseph Alcamo noted at Bali in October 2009, "as policymakers and the public begin to grasp the multi-billion dollar price tag for mitigating and adapting to climate change, we should expect a sharper questioning of the science behind climate policy".

References occur in a list at the end of each chapter. Citations are within the normal text of sections and paragraphs.

Definition of Tags Used

Tag	Explanation	Where Used	References	Citations
PoC	Person of Concern Key individual involved in CRU emails as defined in this spreadsheet. NOTE: we anticipate that this definition will be expanded as more data is coded.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	2	3
JoC	Journal of Concern A Journal which has published articles by one or more PoCs (Person of Concern)	References, Citations	145	270
MoS	Model or Simulation Reference appears to be a model or simulation, not observation or experiment	References, Citations	22	30
NPR	Non Peer Reviewed Reference has no Journal or no Volume or no Pages or it has Editors.	References, Citations	41	84
SRC	Self Reference Concern Author of a chapter containing references to own work.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	99	197
ARC	Paper authored or co-authored by person who is also in list of Authors of another chapter.	References, Citations	22	28
2007	Paper dated 2007, when IPCC policy stated cutoff was December 2005 with mid-February 2006 for exceptions.	References, Citations	-	-
Ambiguous	The short inline citation matched with more than one reference; however, AccessIPCC will link to the first reference found.	Citations	-	14
NotFound	The short inline citation was not matched with any reference. Believed to be caused by typing errors.	Citations	-	-
Clean	The reference was probably peer reviewed. The reference was dated before the cutoff (2005-2006). Its authors were not members of the Team. It was not published in a Journal of Concern. Its authors were not AR4 Authors.	References, Citations	40	64

Chapter Table of Contents

Title	Clean	Tagged	NotFound	Ambiguous
Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground	-	-	-	-
4.1 Introduction	-	8	-	1
4.2 Changes in Snow Cover	-	-	-	-
4.2.1 Background	-	7	-	-
4.2.2 Observations of Snow Cover, Snow Duration and Snow Quantity	-	-	-	-
4.2.2.1 Sources of Snow Data	-	3	-	-
4.2.2.2 Variability and Trends in Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover	1	9	-	1
4.2.2.2.1 North America	-	10	-	-
4.2.2.2.2 Europe and Eurasia	4	5	-	-
4.2.2.3 Southern Hemisphere	-	-	-	-
4.2.2.3.1 South America	1	1	-	-
4.2.2.3.2 Australia and New Zealand	-	4	-	-
4.3 Changes in River and Lake Ice	-	-	-	-
4.3.1 Background	-	-	-	-
4.3.2 Changes in Freeze-up and Breakup Dates	3	5	-	-
4.4 Changes in Sea Ice	-	-	-	-
4.4.1 Background	-	-	-	-
4.4.2 Sea Ice Extent and Concentration	-	-	-	-
4.4.2.1 Data Sources and Time Periods Covered	3	6	-	-
4.4.2.2 Hemispheric, Regional and Seasonal Time Series from Passive Microwave	-	4	-	-
4.4.2.3 Longer Records of Hemispheric Extent	1	11	-	-
4.4.3 Sea Ice Thickness	-	-	-	-
4.4.3.1 Sea Ice Thickness Data Sources and Time Periods Covered	1	2	-	-
4.4.3.2 Evidence of Changes in Arctic Pack Ice Thickness from Submarine Sonar	-	7	-	-
4.4.3.3 Other Evidence of Sea Ice Thickness Change in the Arctic and Antarctic	-	2	-	-
4.4.3.4 Model-Based Estimates of Change	-	7	-	-
4.4.3.5 Landfast Ice Changes	1	3	-	-
4.4.3.6 Snow on Sea Ice	1	1	-	-
4.4.3.7 Assessment of Changes in Sea Ice Thickness	-	-	-	-
4.4.4 Pack Ice Motion	-	-	-	-
4.4.4.1 Data Sources and Time Periods Covered	-	5	-	-
4.4.4.2 Changes in Patterns of Sea Ice Motion and Modes of Climate Variability that Affect Sea Ice Motion	2	3	-	-
4.4.4.3 Ice Export and Advection	-	8	-	-
4.5 Changes in Glaciers and Ice Caps	-	-	-	-
4.5.1 Background	-	5	-	-
4.5.2 Large and Global-Scale Analyses	6	37	-	-
4.5.3 Special Regional Features	10	24	-	-
4.6 Changes and Stability of Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves	-	-	-	-
4.6.1 Background	-	3	-	-
4.6.2 Mass Balance of the Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves	-	1	-	-
4.6.2.1 Techniques	-	-	-	-
4.6.2.1.1 Mass budget	-	10	-	-
4.6.2.1.2 Repeated altimetry	6	11	-	-
4.6.2.1.3 Geodetic measurements, including measurement of temporal variations in Earth gravity	1	5	-	-
4.6.2.2 Measured Balance of the Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves	5	35	-	1
	-	-	-	-
4.6.2.2.2 Antarctica	5	19	-	-
4.6.2.2.3 Ice shelves	2	6	-	1
4.6.3 Causes of Changes	-	-	-	-
4.6.3.1 Changes in Snowfall and Surface Melting	-	16	-	-
4.6.3.2 Ongoing Dynamic Ice Sheet Response to Past Forcing	-	4	-	-
4.6.3.3 Dynamic Response to Recent Forcing	1	29	-	3
4.6.3.4 Melting and Calving of Ice Shelves	2	8	-	-
4.7 Changes in Frozen Ground	-	-	-	-
4.7.1 Background	-	5	-	-
4.7.2 Changes in Permafrost	-	-	-	-
4.7.2.1 Data Sources	-	6	-	1
4.7.2.2 Changes in Permafrost Temperature	2	22	-	4
4.7.2.3 Permafrost Degradation	3	13	-	1
4.7.2.4 Subsea Permafrost	-	-	-	-
4.7.3 Changes in Seasonally Frozen Ground	-	-	-	-
4.7.3.1 Changes in the Active Layer	2	10	-	1
4.7.3.2 Seasonally Frozen Ground in Non-Permafrost Areas	-	5	-	-
4.7.3.3 Near-Surface Soil Freeze-Thaw Cycle	1	1	-	-
4.8 Synthesis	-	2	-	-
Number of citations of various credibilities	64	388	0	14
Percentages of citations of various credibilities	13.7%	83.3%	0.0%	3.0%

Executive Summary

In the climate system, the cryosphere (which consists of snow, river and lake ice, sea ice, glaciers and ice caps, ice shelves and ice sheets, and frozen ground) is intricately linked to the surface energy budget, the water cycle, sea level change and the surface gas exchange. The cryosphere integrates climate variations over a wide range of time scales, making it a natural sensor of climate variability and providing a visible expression of climate change. In the past, the cryosphere has undergone large variations on many time scales associated with ice ages and with shorter-term variations like the Younger Dryas or the Little Ice Age (see Chapter6 ). Recent decreases in ice mass are correlated with rising surface air temperatures. This is especially true for the region north of 65°N, where temperatures have increased by about twice the global average from 1965 to 2005 .

• Snow cover has decreased in most regions, especially in spring and summer. Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover observed by satellite over the 1966 to 2005 period decreased in every month except November and December, with a stepwise drop of 5% in the annual mean in the late 1980s. In the Southern Hemisphere, the few long records or proxies mostly show either decreases or no changes in the past 40 years or more. Where snow cover or snowpack decreased, temperature often dominated; where snow increased, precipitation almost always dominated. For example, NH April snow cover extent is strongly correlated with 40°N to 60°N April temperature, reflecting the feedback between snow and temperature, and declines in the mountains of western North America and in the Swiss Alps have been largest at lower elevations.
• Freeze-up and breakup dates for river and lake ice exhibit considerable spatial variability (with some regions showing trends of opposite sign). Averaged over available data for the NH spanning the past 150 years, freeze-up date has occurred later at a rate of 5.8 ± 1.6 days per century, while the breakup date has occurred earlier at a rate of 6.5 ± 1.2 days per century. (The uncertainty range given throughout this chapter denotes the 5 to 95% confidence interval.)
• Satellite data indicate a continuation of the 2.7 ± 0.6% per decade decline in annual mean arctic sea ice extent since 1978. The decline for summer extent is larger than for winter, with the summer minimum declining at a rate of 7.4 ± 2.4% per decade since 1979. Other data indicate that the summer decline began around 1970. Similar observations in the Antarctic reveal larger interannual variability but no consistent trends.
• Submarine-derived data for the central Arctic indicate that the average sea ice thickness in the central Arctic has very likely decreased by up to 1 m from 1987 to 1997. Model-based reconstructions support this, suggesting an arctic-wide reduction of 0.6 to 0.9 m over the same period. Large-scale trends prior to 1987 are ambiguous.
• Mass loss of glaciers and ice caps is estimated to be 0.50 ± 0.18 mm yr^–1 in sea level equivalent (SLE) between 1961 and 2004, and 0.77 ± 0.22 mm yr^–1 SLE between 1991 and 2004. The late 20th-century glacier wastage likely has been a response to post-1970 warming. Strongest mass losses per unit area have been observed in Patagonia, Alaska and northwest USA and southwest Canada. Because of the corresponding large areas, the biggest contributions to sea level rise came from Alaska, the Arctic and the Asian high mountains.
• Taken together, the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica have very likely been contributing to sea level rise over 1993 to 2003. Thickening in central regions of Greenland has been more than offset by increased melting near the coast. Flow speed has increased for some Greenland and Antarctic outlet glaciers, which drain ice from the interior. The corresponding increased ice sheet mass loss has often followed thinning, reduction or loss of ice shelves or loss of floating glacier tongues. Assessment of the data and techniques suggests a mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet of between +25 and –60 Gt yr^–1 (–0.07 to 0.17 mm yr^–1 SLE) from 1961 to 2003, and –50 to –100 Gt yr^–1 (0.14 to 0.28 mm yr^–1 SLE) from 1993 to 2003, with even larger losses in 2005. Estimates for the overall mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet range from +100 to –200 Gt yr^–1 (–0.28 to 0.55 mm yr^–1 SLE) for 1961 to 2003, and from +50 to –200 Gt yr^–1 (–0.14 to 0.55 mm yr^–1 SLE) for 1993 to 2003. The recent changes in ice flow are likely to be sufficient to explain much or all of the estimated antarctic mass imbalance, with changes in ice flow, snowfall and melt water runoff sufficient to explain the mass imbalance of Greenland.
• Temperature at the top of the permafrost layer has increased by up to 3°C since the 1980s in the Arctic. The permafrost base has been thawing at a rate ranging up to 0.04 m yr^–1 in Alaska since 1992 and 0.02 m yr^–1 on the Tibetan Plateau since the 1960s. Permafrost degradation is leading to changes in land surface characteristics and drainage systems.
• The maximum extent of seasonally frozen ground has decreased by about 7% in the NH from 1901 to 2002, with a decrease in spring of up to 15%. Its maximum depth has decreased about 0.3 m in Eurasia since the mid-20th century. In addition, maximum seasonal thaw depth over permafrost has increased about 0.2 m in the Russian Arctic from 1956 to 1990. Onset dates of thaw in spring and freeze in autumn advanced five to seven days in Eurasia from 1988 to 2002, leading to an earlier growing season but no change in duration.
• Results summarised here indicate that the total cryospheric contribution to sea level change ranged from 0.2 to 1.2 mm yr^–1 between 1961 and 2003, and from 0.8 to 1.6 mm yr^–1 between 1993 and 2003. The rate increased over the 1993 to 2003 period primarily due to increasing losses from mountain glaciers and ice caps, from increasing surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet and from faster flow of parts of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Estimates of changes in the ice sheets are highly uncertain, and no best estimates are given for their mass losses or gains. However, strictly for the purpose of considering the possible contributions to the sea level budget, a total cryospheric contribution of 1.2 ± 0.4 mm yr^–1 SLE is estimated for 1993 to 2003 assuming a midpoint mean plus or minus uncertainties and Gaussian error summation.

4.1 Introduction

The main components of the cryosphere are snow, river and lake ice, sea ice, glaciers and ice caps, ice shelves, ice sheets, and frozen ground( Figure 4.1 ). In terms of the ice mass and its heat capacity, the cryosphere is the second largest component of the climate system (after the ocean). Its relevance for climate variability and change is based on physical properties, such as its high surface reflectivity (albedo) and the latent heat associated with phase changes, which have a strong impact on the surface energy balance. The presence (absence) of snow or ice in polar regions is associated with an increased (decreased) meridional temperature difference, which affects winds and ocean currents. Because of the positive temperature-ice albedo feedback, some cryospheric components act to amplify both changes and variability. However, some, like glaciers and permafrost, act to average out short-term variability and so are sensitive indicators of climate change. Elements of the cryosphere are found at all latitudes, enabling a near-global assessment of cryosphere-related climate changes.

The cryosphere on land stores about 75% of the world’s freshwater. The volumes of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are equivalent to approximately 7 m and 57 m of sea level rise, respectively. Changes in the ice mass on land have contributed to recent changes in sea level. On a regional scale, many glaciers and ice caps play a crucial role in freshwater availability.

Presently, ice permanently covers 10% of the land surface, of which only a tiny fraction lies in ice caps and glaciers outside Antarctica and Greenland( Table 4.1 ). Ice also covers approximately 7% of the oceans in the annual mean. In midwinter, snow covers approximately 49% of the land surface in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Frozen ground has the largest area of any component of the cryosphere. Changes in the components of the cryosphere occur at different time scales, depending on their dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics( Figure 4.1 ). All parts of the cryosphere contribute to short-term climate changes, with permafrost, ice shelves and ice sheets also contributing to longer-term changes including the ice age cycles.

Seasonally, the area covered by snow in the NH ranges from a mean maximum in January of 45.2 × 10⁶ km² to a mean minimum in August of 1.9 × 10⁶ km² ( 1966 – 2004 ). Snow covers more than 33% of lands north of the equator from November to April, reaching 49% coverage in January. The role of snow in the climate system includes strong positive feedbacks related to albedo and other, weaker feedbacks related to moisture storage, latent heat and insulation of the underlying surface (M.P. Clark et al., 1999 [Ambiguous] ), which vary with latitude and season.

High-latitude rivers and lakes develop an ice cover in winter. Although the area and volume are small compared to other components of the cryosphere, this ice plays an important role in freshwater ecosystems, winter transportation, bridge and pipeline crossings, etc. Changes in the thickness and duration of these ice covers can therefore have consequences for both the natural environment and human activities. The breakup of river ice is often accompanied by ‘ice jams’ (blockages formed by accumulation of broken ice); these jams impede the flow of water and may lead to severe flooding.

At maximum extent arctic sea ice covers more than 15 × 10⁶ km²,reducing to only 7 × 10⁶ km² in summer. Antarctic sea ice is considerably more seasonal, ranging from a winter maximum of over 19 × 10⁶ km² to a minimum extent of about 3 × 10⁶ km².Sea ice less than one year old is termed ‘first-year ice’ and that which survives more than one year is called ‘multi-year ice’. Most sea ice is part of the mobile ‘pack ice’, which circulates in the polar oceans, driven by winds and surface currents. This pack ice is extremely inhomogeneous, with differences in ice thicknesses and age, snow cover, open water distribution, etc. occurring at spatial scales from metres to hundreds of kilometres.

Glaciers and ice caps adapt to a change in climate conditions much more rapidly than does a large ice sheet, because they have a higher ratio between annual mass turnover and their total mass. Changes in glaciers and ice caps reflect climate variations, in many cases providing information in remote areas where no direct climate records are available, such as at high latitudes or on the high mountains that penetrate high into the middle troposphere. Glaciers and ice caps contribute to sea level changes and affect the freshwater availability in many mountains and surrounding regions. Formation of large and hazardous lakes is occurring as glacier termini retreat from prominent Little Ice Age moraines, especially in the steep Himalaya and Andes.

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are the main reservoirs capable of affecting sea level. Ice formed from snowfall spreads under gravity towards the coast, where it melts or calves into the ocean to form icebergs. Until recently (including IPCC, 2001 [NPR] ) it was assumed that the spreading velocity would not change rapidly, so that impacts of climate change could be estimated primarily from expected changes in snowfall and surface melting. Observations of rapid ice flow changes since IPCC 2001 [NPR] ) have complicated this picture, with strong indications that floating ice shelves ‘regulate’ the motion of tributary glaciers, which can accelerate manyfold following ice shelf breakup.

Frozen ground includes seasonally frozen ground and permafrost. The permafrost region occupies approximately 23 × 10⁶ km² or 24% of the land area in the NH. On average, the long-term maximum areal extent of the seasonally frozen ground, including the active layer over permafrost, is about 48 × 10⁶ km² or 51% of the land area in the NH. In terms of areal extent, frozen ground is the single largest cryospheric component. Permafrost also acts to record air temperature and snow cover variations, and under changing climate can be involved in feedbacks related to moisture and greenhouse gas exchange with the atmosphere.

4.2 Changes in Snow Cover

4.3 Changes in River and Lake Ice

4.4 Changes in Sea Ice

4.5 Changes in Glaciers and Ice Caps

4.6 Changes and Stability of Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves

New and improved observational techniques, and extended time series, reveal changes in many parts of the large ice sheets. Greenland has experienced mass loss recently in response to increases in near-coastal melting and in ice flow velocity more than offsetting increases in snowfall. Antarctica appears to be losing mass at least partly in response to recent ice flow acceleration in some near-coastal regions, although with greater uncertainty in overall balance than for Greenland. Shortcomings in forcing, physics and resolution in comprehensive ice flow models have prevented them from fully capturing the ice flow changes.

4.7 Changes in Frozen Ground

4.8 Synthesis

Observations show a consistent picture of surface warming and reduction in all components of the cryosphere( FAQ 4.1 ,Figure 1), ^[1] except antarctic sea ice, which exhibits a small positive but insignificant trend since 1978 ( Figure 4.23 ).

Since IPCC 2001 [NPR] ) the cryosphere has undergone significant changes, such as the substantial retreat of arctic sea ice, especially in summer; the continued shrinking of mountain glaciers; the decrease in the extent of snow cover and seasonally frozen ground, particularly in spring; the earlier breakup of river and lake ice; and widespread thinning of antarctic ice shelves along the Amundsen Sea coast, indicating increased basal melting due to increased ocean heat fluxes in the cavities below the ice shelves. An additional new feature is the increasingly visible fast dynamic response of ice shelves, for example, the dramatic breakup of the Larsen B Ice Shelf in 2002, and the acceleration of tributary glaciers and ice streams, with possible consequences for the adjacent part of the ice sheets.

One difficulty with using cryospheric quantities as indicators of climate change is the sparse historical database. Although ‘extent’ of ice (sea ice and glacier margins for example) has been observed for a long time at a few locations, the ‘amount’ of ice (thickness or depth) is difficult to measure. Therefore, reconstructions of past mass balance are often not possible.

The most important cryospheric contributions to sea level variations (see Chapter5 )arise from changes in the ice on land (e.g., glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets). In IPCC 2001 [NPR] ), the contribution of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise during the 20th century was estimated as 0.2 to 0.4 mm yr^–1 (of 1 to 2 mm yr^–1 total sea level rise). New results presented here indicate that all glaciers contributed about 0.50 ± 0.18 mm yr^–1 during 1961 to 2003, increasing to 0.77 ± 0.22 mm yr^–1 from 1993 to 2003 (interpolation from five-year analyses in Table 4.4 ). Estimates for both ice sheets combined give a contribution ranging from –0.35 to +0.72 mm yr^–1 for 1961 to 2003, increasing to 0 to 0.8 mm yr^–1 for 1993 to 2003 . A conservative error estimate in terms of summing ranges is given in Table 4.6 .Assuming a midpoint mean, interpreting the range as uncertainty and using Gaussian error summation of estimates for glaciers and both ice sheets suggests that the total ice contribution to sea level rise was approximately 0.7 ± 0.5 mm yr^–1 during 1961 to 2003 and 1.2 ± 0.4 mm yr^–1 during 1993 to 2003 .

The large uncertainties reflect the difficulties in estimating the global ice mass and its variability, because global monitoring of ice thickness is impossible (even the total area of glaciers is not exactly known) and extrapolation from local measurements is therefore necessary. A regional extension of the monitored ice masses and an improvement of measurement and extrapolation techniques are urgently required.

In spite of the large uncertainties, the data that are available portray a rather consistent picture of a cryosphere in decline over the 20th century, increasingly so during 1993 to 2003 .

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NOTE: In the Summary of Reviewer Comments,
Accepted includes only those responses that were unambiguously Accepted.
There are other categories of responses that we have not yet quantified
due to inconsistencies of usage.

Summary of Reviewer Comments - Second Order Draft

Reviewer	Total Comments	Accepted	IPCC Roles	Papers
Folland, CK	91	53	1	17
Smith, SJ	57	35	1	2
Matsuoka, Kenichi	51	24	0	0
Govt. of United States of America	50	26	0	0
Gray, Vincent	45	10	0	0
Zwiers, FW	32	20	3	20
Johannessen, Om	23	1	0	0
Marquis, Melinda	21	14	0	0
Isaksen, K	14	12	2	1
Hare, William	13	2	0	0
Hindmarsh, Richard	12	10	0	0
Rind, DG	11	3	4	20
Haeberli, W	11	8	0	2
Harangozo, Steve	10	4	0	0
Tamisiea, M	9	4	1	1
Bojariu, R	9	5	0	2
Fahey, Dw&D	8	6	0	0
Govt. of Germany	7	5	0	0
Simmons, AJ	7	4	1	3
Govt. of China	6	2	0	0
Nelson, Frederick	6	5	0	0
Govt. of Canada	6	4	0	0
Solomon, SM	3	3	2	11
Govt. of Australia	2	1	0	0
Holmund, Per	2	1	0	0
Renwick, James	2	1	0	0
Govt. of Japan	1	0	0	0
Nesje, A	1	0	0	7
Anderson, Wilmer	1	1	0	0
Martin, Eric	1	1	0	0
Colombo, Tiziano	1	0	0	0
Soulen, Richard	1	1	0	0
Govt. of Finland	1	0	0	0
Govt. of Sweden	1	0	0	0
Totals	516	266	15	86

Overview of Reviewer Comments - Second Order Draft

Reviewer Type	Total Comments	Accepted	% Accepted
Govt	74	38	51%
IPCC	245	147	60%
Indep	197	81	41%
Total	516	266	51%

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