With the exception of Chapter and Section headings, all coloured text has been inserted by AccessIPCC. The non-coloured text is the IPCC original.

A number of emails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia were published on the Internet in November 2009. This has provided a window into the world of climate science.

We have identified a number of key individuals involved in the emails whom we have designated as Persons of Concern [PoC]; a Journal in which a PoC has published has been designated as a Journal of Concern [JoC].

This is not to suggest that we believe such papers are necessarily flawed, but rather that, as Joseph Alcamo noted at Bali in October 2009, "as policymakers and the public begin to grasp the multi-billion dollar price tag for mitigating and adapting to climate change, we should expect a sharper questioning of the science behind climate policy".

References occur in a list at the end of each chapter. Citations are within the normal text of sections and paragraphs.

Definition of Tags Used

Tag	Explanation	Where Used	References	Citations
PoC	Person of Concern Key individual involved in CRU emails as defined in this spreadsheet. NOTE: we anticipate that this definition will be expanded as more data is coded.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	1	1
JoC	Journal of Concern A Journal which has published articles by one or more PoCs (Person of Concern)	References, Citations	4	5
MoS	Model or Simulation Reference appears to be a model or simulation, not observation or experiment	References, Citations	21	27
NPR	Non Peer Reviewed Reference has no Journal or no Volume or no Pages or it has Editors.	References, Citations	274	363
SRC	Self Reference Concern Author of a chapter containing references to own work.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	43	85
ARC	Paper authored or co-authored by person who is also in list of Authors of another chapter.	References, Citations	19	22
2007	Paper dated 2007, when IPCC policy stated cutoff was December 2005 with mid-February 2006 for exceptions.	References, Citations	-	-
Ambiguous	The short inline citation matched with more than one reference; however, AccessIPCC will link to the first reference found.	Citations	-	5
NotFound	The short inline citation was not matched with any reference. Believed to be caused by typing errors.	Citations	-	4
Clean	The reference was probably peer reviewed. The reference was dated before the cutoff (2005-2006). Its authors were not members of the Team. It was not published in a Journal of Concern. Its authors were not AR4 Authors.	References, Citations	44	43

Chapter Table of Contents

Title	Clean	Tagged	NotFound	Ambiguous
Chapter 7: Industry	-	-	-	-
7.1 Introduction	-	2	-	-
7.1.1 Status of the sector	1	6	1	-
7.1.2 Development trends	1	16	1	-
7.1.3 Emission trends	-	5	-	-
7.10 Co-benefits of industrial GHG mitigation	1	8	-	-
7.11 Technology Research, Development, Deployment and Diffusion (RDD & D)	-	12	-	-
7.11.1 Public sector	-	-	-	-
7.11.1.1 Domestic policies	1	5	-	1
7.11.1.2 Foreign or international policies	-	4	-	-
7.11.2 Private sector	-	1	-	-
7.12 Long-term outlook, system transitions, decision-making and inertia	-	-	-	-
7.12.1 Longer-term mitigation options	-	-	-	-
7.12.2 System transitions, inertia and decision-making	-	2	-	-
7.13 Key uncertainties and gaps in knowledge	-	-	-	-
7.2 Industrial mitigation matrix	-	-	-	-
7.3 Industrial sector-wide operating procedures and technologies	-	-	-	-
7.3.1 Management practices, including benchmarking	3	11	-	2
7.3.2 Energy efficiency	1	16	-	-
7.3.3 Fuel switching, including the use of waste materials	4	8	-	-
7.3.4 Heat and power recovery	3	8	-	-
7.3.5 Renewable energy	-	4	-	-
7.3.6 Materials efficiency and recycling	-	3	-	-
7.3.7 Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS), including oxy-fuel combustion	1	7	-	-
7.4 Process-specific technologies and measures	-	1	-	-
7.4.1 Iron and steel	1	25	-	-
7.4.2 Non-ferrous metals	-	14	-	-
7.4.2.2 Magnesium	-	5	-	-
7.4.2.3 Total emissions and reduction potentials	-	-	-	-
7.4.3 Chemicals and fertilizers	-	3	-	-
7.4.3.1 Ethylene	-	4	-	-
7.4.3.2 Fertilizer manufacture	-	11	1	1
7.4.3.3 Chlorine manufacture	-	3	-	-
7.4.3.4 N2O emissions from adipic acid, nitric acid and caprolactam manufacture	-	5	-	-
7.4.3.5 HFC-23 emissions from HCFC-22 manufacture	-	5	-	-
7.4.4 Petroleum refining	-	6	-	-
7.4.5 Minerals	-	-	-	-
7.4.5.1 Cement	3	19	-	-
7.4.5.2 Lime	3	10	-	-
7.4.5.3 Glass	-	6	-	-
7.4.5.4 Ceramics	-	7	-	-
7.4.6 Pulp and paper	-	3	-	-
7.4.6.1 Mitigation options	2	9	-	-
7.4.6.2 Emission reduction potential	1	7	-	-
7.4.7 Food	1	3	-	-
7.4.7.1 Production processes, emissions and emission intensities	-	5	-	-
7.4.7.2 Mitigation opportunities	4	11	-	-
7.4.8 Other industries	-	10	-	-
7.4.9 Inter-industry options	2	3	-	-
7.5 Short- and medium-term mitigation potential and cost	-	2	-	-
7.5.1 Electricity savings	1	19	-	-
7.5.2 Non-CO2 gases	-	1	-	-
7.5.3 Summary and comparison with other studies	-	3	-	-
7.6 Barriers to industrial GHG mitigation	1	11	-	-
7.7 Sustainable Development (SD) implications of industrial GHG mitigation	5	12	1	-
7.8 Interaction of mitigation technologies with vulnerability and adaptation	1	1	-	-
7.9 Effectiveness of and experience with policies	-	2	-	-
7.9.1 Kyoto mechanisms (CDM and JI)	-	2	-	-
7.9.1.1 Regional differences	-	3	-	-
7.9.2 Voluntary GHG programmes and agreements	-	-	-	-
7.9.2.1 Government-initiated GHG programmes and voluntary agreements	1	26	-	1
7.9.2.2 Company or industry-initiated voluntary actions	-	10	-	-
7.9.3 Financial instruments: taxes, subsidies and access to capital	1	6	-	-
7.9.4 Regional and national GHG emissions trading programmes	-	9	-	-
7.9.5 Regulation of non-CO2 gases	-	2	-	-
7.9.6 Energy and technology policies	-	2	-	-
7.9.7 Sustainable Development policies	-	8	-	-
7.9.8 Air quality policies	-	2	-	-
7.9.9 Waste management policies	-	2	-	-
Number of citations of various credibilities	43	416	4	5
Percentages of citations of various credibilities	9.2%	88.9%	0.9%	1.1%

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Industrial sector emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) include carbon dioxide (CO₂) from energy use, from non-energy uses of fossil fuels and from non-fossil fuel sources (e.g., cement manufacture); as well as non-CO₂ gases.

• Energy-related CO₂ emissions (including emissions from electricity use) from the industrial sector grew from 6.0 GtCO₂ (1.6 GtC) in 1971 to 9.9 GtCO₂ (2.7 GtC) in 2004. Direct CO₂ emissions totalled 5.1 Gt (1.4 GtC), the balance being indirect emissions associated with the generation of electricity and other energy carriers. However, since energy use in other sectors grew faster, the industrial sector’s share of global primary energy use declined from 40% in 1971 to 37% in 2004. In 2004, developed nations accounted for 35%; transition economies 11%; and developing nations 53% of industrial sector energy-related CO₂ emissions.
• CO₂ emissions from non-energy uses of fossil fuels and from non-fossil fuel sources were estimated at 1.7 Gt (0.46 GtC) in 2000.
• Non-CO₂ GHGs include: HFC-23 from HCFC-22 manufacture, PFCs from aluminium smelting and semiconductor processing, SF₆ from use in electrical switchgear and magnesium processing and CH₄ and N₂O from the chemical and food industries. Total emissions from these sources (excluding the food industry, due to lack of data) decreased from 470 MtCO₂-eq (130 MtC-eq) in 1990 to 430 MtCO₂-eq (120 MtC-eq) in 2000.

Direct GHG emissions from the industrial sector are currently about 7.2 GtCO₂-eq (2.0 GtC-eq), and total emissions, including indirect emissions, are about 12 GtCO₂-eq (3.3 GtC-eq) (high agreement, much evidence).

Approximately 85% of the industrial sector’s energy use in 2004 was in the energy-intensive industries: iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals and fertilizers, petroleum refining, minerals (cement, lime, glass and ceramics) and pulp and paper. In 2003, developing countries accounted for 42% of iron and steel production, 57% of nitrogen fertilizer production, 78% of cement manufacture and about 50% of primary aluminium production. Many industrial facilities in developing nations are new and include the latest technology with the lowest specific energy use. However, many older, inefficient facilities remain in both industrialized and developing countries. In developing countries, there continues to be a huge demand for technology transfer to upgrade industrial facilities to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions (high agreement, much evidence).

Many options exist for mitigating GHG emissions from the industrial sector (high agreement, much evidence). These options can be divided into three categories:

• Sector-wide options, for example more efficient electric motors and motor-driven systems; high efficiency boilers and process heaters; fuel switching, including the use of waste materials; and recycling.
• Process-specific options, for example the use of the bio-energy contained in food and pulp and paper industry wastes, turbines to recover the energy contained in pressurized blast furnace gas, and control strategies to minimize PFC emissions from aluminium manufacture.
• Operating procedures, for example control of steam and compressed air leaks, reduction of air leaks into furnaces, optimum use of insulation, and optimization of equipment size to ensure high capacity utilization.

Mitigation potential and cost in 2030 have been estimated through an industry-by-industry assessment for energy-intensive industries and an overall assessment for other industries. The approach yielded mitigation potentials at a cost of <100 US$/tCO₂-eq (<370 US$/tC-eq) of 2.0 to 5.1 GtCO₂-eq/yr (0.6 to 1.4 GtC-eq/yr) under the B2 scenario ^[1] . The largest mitigation potentials are located in the steel, cement, and pulp and paper industries and in the control of non-CO₂ gases. Much of the potential is available at <50 US$/tCO₂-eq (<180 US$/tC-eq). Application of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology offers a large additional potential, albeit at higher cost (medium agreement, medium evidence).

Key uncertainties in the projection of mitigation potential and cost in 2030 are the rate of technology development and diffusion, the cost of future technology, future energy and carbon prices, the level of industry activity in 2030, and climate and non-climate policy drivers. Key gaps in knowledge are the base case energy intensity for specific industries, especially in economies-in-transition, and consumer preferences.

Full use of available mitigation options is not being made in either industrialized or developing nations. In many areas of the world, GHG mitigation is not demanded by either the market or government regulations. In these areas, companies will invest in GHG mitigation if other factors provide a return on their investment. This return can be economic, for example energy efficiency projects that provide an economic payout, or it can be in terms of achieving larger corporate goals, for example a commitment to sustainable development. The slow rate of capital stock turnover is also a barrier in many industries, as is the lack of the financial and technical resources needed to implement mitigation options, and limitations in the ability of industrial firms to access and absorb technological information about available options (high agreement, much evidence).

Industry GHG investment decisions, many of which have long-term consequences, will continue to be driven by consumer preferences, costs, competitiveness and government regulation. A policy environment that encourages the implementation of existing and new mitigation technologies could lead to lower GHG emissions. Policy portfolios that reduce the barriers to the adoption of cost-effective, low-GHG-emission technology can be effective (medium agreement, medium evidence).

Achieving sustainable development will require the implementation of cleaner production processes without compromising employment potential. Large companies have greater resources, and usually more incentives, to factor environmental and social considerations into their operations than small and medium enterprises (SMEs), but SMEs provide the bulk of employment and manufacturing capacity in many developing countries. Integrating SME development strategy into the broader national strategies for development is consistent with sustainable development objectives (high agreement, much evidence).

Industry is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly to the impacts of extreme weather. Companies can adapt to these potential impacts by designing facilities that are resistant to projected changes in weather and climate, relocating plants to less vulnerable locations, and diversifying raw material sources, especially agricultural or forestry inputs. Industry is also vulnerable to the impacts of changes in consumer preference and government regulation in response to the threat of climate change. Companies can respond to these by mitigating their own emissions and developing lower-emission products (high agreement, much evidence).

While existing technologies can significantly reduce industrial GHG emissions, new and lower-cost technologies will be needed to meet long-term mitigation objectives. Examples of new technologies include: development of an inert electrode to eliminate process emissions from aluminium manufacture; use of carbon capture and storage in the ammonia, cement and steel industries; and use of hydrogen to reduce iron and non-ferrous metal ores (medium agreement, medium evidence).

Both the public and the private sectors have important roles in the development of low-GHG-emission technologies that will be needed to meet long-term mitigation objectives. Governments are often more willing than companies to fund the higher risk, earlier stages of the R&D process, while companies should assume the risks associated with actual commercialisation. The Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), and a variety of bilateral and multilateral programmes, have the deployment, transfer and diffusion of mitigation technology as one of their goals (high agreement, much evidence).

Voluntary agreements between industry and government to reduce energy use and GHG emissions have been used since the early 1990 s. Well-designed agreements, which set realistic targets, include sufficient government support, often as part of a larger environmental policy package, and include a real threat of increased government regulation or energy/GHG taxes if targets are not achieved, can provide more than business-as-usual energy savings or emission reductions. Some voluntary actions by industry, which involve commitments by individual companies or groups of companies, have achieved substantial emission reductions. Both voluntary agreements and actions also serve to change attitudes, increase awareness, lower barriers to innovation and technology adoption, and facilitate co-operation with stakeholders (medium agreement, much evidence).

7.1 Introduction

This chapter addresses past, ongoing, and short (to 2010 ) and medium-term (to 2030 ) future actions that can be taken to mitigate GHG emissions from the manufacturing and process industries. ^[2]

Globally, and in most countries, CO₂ accounts for more than 90% of CO₂-eq GHG emissions from the industrial sector ( Price et al., 2006 [NPR, SRC] ; US EPA, 2006b [NPR] ). These CO₂ emissions arise from three sources: (1) the use of fossil fuels for energy, either directly by industry for heat and power generation or indirectly in the generation of purchased electricity and steam; (2) non-energy uses of fossil fuels in chemical processing and metal smelting; and (3) non-fossil fuel sources, for example cement and lime manufacture. Industrial processes also emit other GHGs, e.g.:

• Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is emitted as a byproduct of adipic acid, nitric acid and caprolactam production;
• HFC-23 is emitted as a byproduct of HCFC-22 production, a refrigerant, and also used in fluoroplastics manufacture;
• Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) are emitted as byproducts of aluminium smelting and in semiconductor manufacture;
• Sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) is emitted in the manufacture, use and, decommissioning of gas insulated electrical switchgear, during the production of flat screen panels and semiconductors, from magnesium die casting and other industrial applications;
• Methane (CH₄) is emitted as a byproduct of some chemical processes; and
• CH₄ and N₂O can be emitted by food industry waste streams.

Many GHG emission mitigation options have been developed for the industrial sector. They fall into three categories: operating procedures, sector-wide technologies and process-specific technologies. A sampling of these options is discussed in Sections 7.2 – 7.4 . The short- and medium-term potential for and cost of all classes of options are discussed in Section 7.5 , barriers to the application of these options are addressed in Section 7.6 and the implication of industrial mitigation for sustainable development is discussed in Section 7.7 .

Section 7.8 discusses the sector’s vulnerability to climate change and options for adaptation. A number of policies have been designed either to encourage voluntary GHG emission reductions from the industrial sector or to mandate such reductions. Section 7.9 describes these policies and the experience gained to date. Co-benefits of reducing GHG emissions from the industrial sector are discussed in Section 7.10 . Development of new technology is key to the cost-effective control of industrial GHG emissions. Section 7.11 discusses research, development, deployment and diffusion in the industrial sector and Section 7.12 , the long-term (post- 2030 ) technologies for GHG emissions reduction from the industrial sector. Section 7.13 summarizes gaps in knowledge.

7.2 Industrial mitigation matrix

A wide range of technologies have the potential for reducing industrial GHG emissions (high agreement, much evidence). They can be grouped into categories, for example energy efficiency, fuel switching and power recovery. Within each category, some technologies, such as the use of more efficient electric motors and motor systems, are broadly applicable across all industries; while others, such as top-gas pressure recovery in blast furnaces, are process-specific. Table 7.5 presents selected examples of both classes of technologies for a number of industries. The table is not comprehensive and does not cover all industries or GHG mitigation technologies.

Table 7.5: Selected examples of industrial technology for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions (not comprehensive). Technologies in italics are under demonstration or development

7.3 Industrial sector-wide operating procedures and technologies

This section discusses sector-wide mitigation options. Barriers to the implementation of these options are discussed in Section 7.6 .

7.4 Process-specific technologies and measures

This section discusses process specific mitigation options. Barriers to the implementation of these options are discussed in Section 7.6 . The section focuses on energy intensive industries: iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, petroleum refining, minerals (cement, lime and glass) and pulp and paper. IEA 2006a [NPR] ) reported that these industries (ex-petroleum refining) accounted for 72% of industrial final energy use in 2003 . With petroleum refining, the total is about 85%. A subsection covers the food industry, which is not a major contributor to global industrial GHG emissions, but is a large contributor to these emissions in many developing countries. Subsections also cover other industries and inter-industry options, where the use of one industry’s waste as a feedstock or energy source by another industry can reduce overall emissions (See Section 7.4.9 ). All the industries discussed in this section can benefit from application of the sector-wide technologies (process optimization, energy efficiency, etc.) discussed in Section 7.3 . The application of these technologies will not be discussed again.

7.5 Short- and medium-term mitigation potential and cost

Limited information is available on mitigation potential and cost ^[9] in industry, but it is sufficient to develop a global estimate for the industrial sector. Available studies vary widely with respect to system boundaries, baseline, time period, subsectors included, completeness of mitigation measures included, and economic factors (e.g., costs and discount rates). In many cases study assumptions are not specified, making it impossible to adjust the studies to a common basis, or to quantify overall uncertainty. A full discussion of the basis for evaluating costs in this report appears in Chapter 2 .5.

Table 7.8 presents an assessment of the industry-specific literature. Mitigation potential and cost for industrial CO₂ emissions were estimated as follows:

(1) Price et al. 2006 [NPR, SRC] )s estimates for 2030 production rate by industry and geographic area for the SRES A1 and B2 scenarios ( IPCC, 2000b [NPR] ) were used.

(2) Literature estimates of mitigation potential were used, where available. In other cases, mitigation potential was estimated by assuming that current best practice could be achieved by all plants in 2030 .

(3) Literature estimates of mitigation cost were used, where available. When literature values were not available, expert judgment (informed by the available literature and data) was used to assign costs to mitigation technology.

Cost estimates are reported as 2030 mitigation potential below a given cost level. In most cases it was not possible to develop a marginal abatement cost curve that would allow estimation of mitigation potential as a function of cost. Estimates have not been made for some smaller industries (e.g., glass) and for the food industry. One or more of the critical inputs needed for these estimates were missing.

Table 7.8 should be interpreted with care. It is based on a limited number of studies sometimes only one study per industry and implicitly assumes that current trends will continue until 2030 . Key uncertainties in the projections include: the rate of technology development and diffusion, the cost of future technology, future energy and carbon prices, the level of industrial activity in 2030, and policy driver, both climate and non-climate. The use of two scenarios, A1B and B2, is an attempt to bracket the range of these uncertainties.

Table 7.8 projects 2030 mitigation potential for the industrial sector at a cost of <100 US$/tCO₂-eq (<370 US$/tC-eq) of 3.0 to 6.3 GtCO₂-eq/yr (0.8 to 1.7 GtC-eq/yr) under the A1B scenario, and 2.0 to 5.1 GtCO₂-eq/yr (0.6 to 1.4 GtC-eq/yr) under the B2 scenario. The largest mitigation potentials are found in the steel, cement, and pulp and paper industries and in the control of non-CO₂ gases. Much of that potential is available at <50 US$/tCO₂-eq (<180 US$/tC-eq). Application of CCS technology offers a large additional potential, albeit at higher cost (low agreement, little evidence).

Some data are available on industrial sector mitigation potential and cost by country or region. However, an attempt to build-up a global estimate from this data was unsuccessful. Information was lacking for the former Soviet Union, Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia.

7.6 Barriers to industrial GHG mitigation

Full use of mitigation options is not being made in either industrialized or developing nations (high agreement, much evidence). In many areas of the world, GHG mitigation is neither demanded nor rewarded by the market or government. In these areas, companies will invest in GHG mitigation to the extent that other factors provide a return for their investments. This return can be economic, for example energy-efficiency improvements that show an economic payout. Nicholson 2004 [NPR] ) reported that the projects BP undertook to lower its CO₂ emissions by 10% increased shareholder value by US$ 650 million. Alternatively, the return can be in terms of achievement of a larger corporate goal, for example DuPont’s commitment to cut its GHG emission by two-thirds as part of a larger commitment to sustainable growth ( Holliday, 2001 [NPR] ).

Even though a broad range of cost-effective GHG mitigation technologies exist, a variety of economic barriers prevent their full realisation in both developed and developing countries. Policies and measures must overcome the effective costs of capital ( Toman, 2003 [NPR, MoS] ). Industry needs a stable, transparent policy regime addressing both economic and environmental concerns to reduce the costs of capital.

The slow rate of capital stock turnover in many of the industries covered in this chapter is a barrier to mitigation ( Worrell and Biermans, 2005 [SRC] ). Excess capacity, as exists in some industries, can further slow capital stock turnover. Policies that encourage capital stock turnover, such as Japan’s programme to subsidize the installation of new high performance furnaces ( WEC, 2001 [NPR] ), will increase GHG mitigation. Companies must also take into consideration the risks involved with adopting a new technology, the payback period of a technology, the appropriate discount rate and transaction costs. Newer, relatively expensive technologies often have longer payback periods and represent a greater risk. Reliability is a key concern of industry, making new technologies less attractive ( Rosenberg, 1999 [NPR] ). Discount rates vary substantially across industries and little information exists on transaction costs of mitigation options ( US EPA, 2003 [NPR, MoS] ).

Resource constraints are also a significant barrier to mitigation. Unless legally mandated, GHG mitigation will have to compete for financial and technical resources against projects to achieve other company goals. Financial constraints can hinder diffusion of technologies within firms ( (Canepa and Stoneman, 2004 ) ). Projects to increase capacity or bring new products to the market typically have priority, especially in developing countries, where markets are growing rapidly and where a large portion of industrial capacity is in SMEs. Energy efficiency and other GHG mitigation technologies can provide attractive rates of return, but they tend to increase initial capital costs, which can be a barrier in locations where capital is limited. If the technology involved is new to the market in question, even if it is well-demonstrated elsewhere, the problem of raising capital may be further exacerbated ( Shashank, 2004 [NPR] ). Provision of funding for demonstration of the technology can overcome this barrier ( CPCB, 2005 [NPR] ).

The rate of technology transfer is another factor limiting the adoption of mitigation technologies. As documented in the IPCC Special Report Methodological and Technological Issues in Technology Transfer ( IPCC, 2000c [NPR] ), lack of an enabling environment is a barrier to technology transfer in some countries. Even when an enabling environment is present, the ability of industrial organizations to access and absorb information on technologies is limited. Access to information tends to be more of a problem in developing nations, but all companies, even the largest, have limited technical resources to interpret and translate the available information. The success of programmes such as US DOE’s Industrial Technologies Programs (ITP) and of the voluntary information sharing programmes discussed in Section 7.9.2 is evidence of the pervasiveness of this barrier.

McKane et al. 2005 [NPR] ) provide a case study of the interaction of some of these elements in their analysis of the barriers to the adoption of energy-efficient electric motors and motor-systems. These include: (1) industrial markets that focus on components, not systems; (2) energy efficiency not being a core mission for most industries, which results in a lack of internal support systems for mitigation goals; and (3) lack of technical skills to optimize the systems to the specific application – one size does not fit all. They found industrial energy efficiency standards a useful tool in overcoming these barriers.

7.7 Sustainable Development (SD) implications of industrial GHG mitigation

Although there is no universally accepted, practical definition of SD, the concept has evolved as the integration of economic, social and environmental aims ( IPCC, 2000a [NPR] ; Munasinghe, 2002 [ARC] ). Companies worldwide adopted Triple Bottom Line (financial, environmental and social responsibility) reporting in the late 1990 ’s. The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI, n.d.), a multi-stakeholder process, has enabled business organizations to account for and better explain their contributions to sustainable development. Companies are also reporting under Sigma Guidelines (The Sigma Project, 2003a ), and AA 1000 (The Sigma Project, 2003b ) and SA 8000 ( SAI, 2001 [NPR] ) procedures. Many companies are trying to demonstrate that their operations minimize water use and carbon emissions and produce zero solid waste ( ITC, 2006 [NPR] ). SD consequences can be observed or monitored through various indicators grouped under the three major categories. (See Section 12.1.1 and 12.1.3 for more detail).

However, the SD consequences of mitigation options are not automatic. GHG mitigation, per se, has little impact on four of the SD indicators: poverty reduction, empowerment/gender, water pollution and solid waste. The literature indicates that supplementing mitigation options with appropriate national macroeconomic policies, and with social and local waste reduction strategies at the company level (Tata Steel, Ltd., 2005 [NotFound] ; BEE, 2006 [NPR] ), has achieved some sustainability goals. Economy-wide impact studies ( Sathaye et al., 2005 [NPR, SRC] ; Phadke et al., 2005 [NPR, ARC] ) show that in developing countries, like India, adoption of efficient electricity technology can lead to higher employment and income generation. However, the lack of empirical studies leads to much uncertainty about the SD implications of many mitigation strategies, including use of renewables, fuel switching, feedstock and product changes, control of non-CO₂ gases, and CCS. For example, fuel switching can have a positive effect on local air pollution and company profitability, but its impacts on employment are uncertain and will depend on inter-input substitution opportunities.

GHG emissions mitigation policies induce increased innovation that can reduce the energy and capital intensity of industry. However, this could come at the expense of other, even more valuable, productivity-enhancing investments or learning-by-doing efforts ( Goulder and Schneider, 1999 [PoC, JoC] ). If policies are successful in stimulating economic activity, they are also likely to stimulate increased energy use. GHG emissions would increase unless policies decreased the carbon-intensity of economic activity by more than the increase in activity. Due to energy efficiency improvements and fuel switching in OECD countries ( Schipper et al., 2000 [NPR] ;( Liskas et al., 2000 ) ), as well as in developing countries like India ( Dasgupta and Roy, 2001 [MoS, SRC] ), China ( Zhang, 2003 [NPR] ), Korea ( (Choi and Ang, 2001; ) ( Chang, 2003 ) ), Bangladesh (Bain, 2005 ), and Mexico ( (Aguayo and Gallagher, 2005 ) ), energy and carbon intensity have decreased, for the industry sector in general and for energy-intensive industries in particular. In Mexico, deindustrialization also played a role. For OECD countries, structural change has also played an important role in emissions reduction. However, overall economic activity has increased more rapidly, resulting in higher total carbon emissions.

SMEs have played a part in advancing the SD agenda, for example as part of coordinated supply chain or industrial park initiatives, or by participating in research and innovation in sustainable goods and services ( (Dutta et al., 2004 ) ). US DOE’s Industrial Assessment Centers (IACs) are an example of how SMEs can be provided with financial and technical support to assess and identify energy and cost-saving opportunities and training to improve human capital ( US DOE, 2003 [NPR] ).

7.8 Interaction of mitigation technologies with vulnerability and adaptation

Industry’s vulnerability to extreme weather events arises from site characteristics, for example coastal areas or flood-prone river basins (high agreement, much evidence). Because of their financial and technical resources, large industrial organizations typically have a significant adaptive capacity for addressing vulnerability to weather extremes. SMEs typically have fewer financial and technical resources and therefore less adaptive capacity. The food processing industry, which relies on agricultural resources that are vulnerable to extreme weather conditions like floods or droughts, is engaging in dialogue with its supply chain to reduce GHGs emissions. Companies are also attempting to reduce vulnerability through product diversification ( (Kolk and Pinkse, 2005 ) ).

Linkages between adaptation and mitigation in the industrial sector are limited. In areas dependent on hydropower, mitigation options that reduce industrial electricity demand will help in adapting to climate variability or change that affects water supply ( Subak et al., 2000 [JoC] ). Many mitigation options (e.g., energy efficiency, heat and power recovery, recycling) are not vulnerable to climate change and therefore create no additional adaptation link. Others, such as fuel switching can be vulnerable to climate change under certain circumstances. As the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season demonstrated, the oil and gas infrastructure is vulnerable to weather extremes. Use of solar or biomass energy will be vulnerable to both weather extremes and climate change. Adaptation, the construction of more weather resistant facilities and provision of back-up energy supplies could reduce this vulnerability.

7.9 Effectiveness of and experience with policies

As noted in the TAR ( IPCC, 2001b [NPR] ), industrial enterprises of all sizes are vulnerable to changes in government policy and consumer preferences. While the specifics of government climate policies will vary greatly, all will have one of two fundamental objectives: constraining GHG emissions or adapting to existing or projected climate change. And while consumers may become more sensitive to the GHG impacts of the products and services they use, it is almost certain that they will continue to seek the traditional qualities of low-cost, reliability, etc. The challenge to industry will be to continue to provide the goods and services on which society depends in a GHG-constrained world. Industry can respond to the potential for increased government regulation or changes in consumer preferences in two ways: by mitigating its own GHG emissions or by developing new, lower GHG emission products and services. To the extent that industry does this before required by either regulation or the market, it is demonstrating the type of anticipatory, or planned, adaptation advocated in the TAR ( IPCC, 2001b [NPR] ).

7.10 Co-benefits of industrial GHG mitigation

The TAR explained that ‘co-benefits are the benefits from policy options implemented for various reasons at the same time, acknowledging that most policies resulting in GHG mitigation also have other, often at least equally important, rationales’ ( IPCC, 2001a [NPR] ). Significant co-benefits arise from reduction of emissions, especially local air pollutants. These are discussed in Section 11.8.1 . Here we focus on co-benefits of industrial GHG mitigation options that arise due to reduced emissions and waste (which in turn reduce environmental compliance and waste disposal costs), increased production and product quality, improved maintenance and operating costs, an improved working environment, and other benefits such as decreased liability, improved public image and worker morale, and delaying or reducing capital expenditures (see Table 7.11 ( (Pye and McKane, 2000; ) Worrell et al., 2003 [SRC] ).

Table 7.11: Co-benefits of greenhouse-gas mitigation or energy-efficiency programmes of selected countries

A review of forty-one industrial motor system optimization projects implemented between 1995 and 2001 found that twenty-two resulted in reduced maintenance requirements on the motor systems, fourteen showed improvements in productivity in the form of production increases or better product quality, eight reported lower emissions or reduction in purchases of products such as treatment chemicals, six projects forestalled equipment purchases, and others reported increases in production or decreases in product reject rates ( Lung et al., 2003 [NPR] ). Motor system optimization projects in China are seen as an activity that can reduce operating costs, increase system reliability and contribute to the economic viability of Chinese industrial enterprises faced with increased competition ( McKane et al., 2003 [NPR] ).

A review of 54 emerging energy-efficient technologies, produced or implemented in the USA, EU, Japan and other industrialized countries for the industrial sector, found that 20 of the technologies had environmental benefits in the areas of ‘reduction of wastes’ and ‘emissions of criteria air pollutants’. The use of such environmentally friendly technologies is often most compelling when it enables the expansion of incremental production capacity without requiring additional environmental permits. In addition, 35 of the technologies had productivity or product quality benefits ( Martin et al., 2000 [NPR, SRC] ).

Quantification of the co-benefits of industrial technologies is often done on a case-by-case basis. One evaluation identified 52 case studies from projects in the USA, the Netherlands, UK, New Zealand, Canada, Norway and Nigeria that monetized non-energy savings. These case studies had an average simple payback time of 4.2 years based on energy savings alone. Addition of the quantified co-benefits reduced the simple payback time to 1.9 years ( Worrell et al., 2003 [SRC] ). Inclusion of quantified co-benefits in an energy-conservation supply curve for the US iron and steel industry doubled the potential for cost-effective savings ( Worrell et al., 2001a [SRC] ; 2003 ).

Not all co-benefits are easily quantifiable in financial terms (e.g., increased safety or employee satisfaction), there are variations in regulatory regimes vis-à-vis specific emissions and the value of their reduction and there is a lack of time series and plant-level data on co-benefits. Also, there is a need to assess net co-benefits, as negative impacts that may be associated with some technologies, such as increased risk, increased training requirements and production losses during technology installation ( Worrell et al., 2003 [SRC] ).

7.11 Technology Research, Development, Deployment and Diffusion (RDD&D)

Most industrial processes use at least 50% more than the theoretical minimum energy requirement determined by the laws of thermodynamics, suggesting a large potential for energy-efficiency improvement and GHG emission mitigation ( IEA, 2006a [NPR] ). However, RDD&D is required to capture these potential efficiency gains and achieve significant GHG emission reductions. Studies have demonstrated that new technologies are being developed and entering the market continuously, and that new technologies offer further potential for efficiency improvement and cost reduction ( Worrell et al., 2002 [SRC] ).

While this chapter has tended to discuss technologies only in terms of their GHG emission mitigation potential and cost, it is important to realize that successful technologies must also meet a host of other performance criteria, including cost competitiveness, safety, and regulatory requirements; as well as winning consumer acceptance. (These topics are discussed in more detail in Section 7.11.2 .) While some technology is marketed as energy-efficient, other benefits may drive the development and diffusion of the technology, as evidenced by a case study of impulse drying in the paper industry, in which the driver was productivity ( Luiten and Blok, 2004 [ARC] ). This is understandable given that energy cost is just one of the drivers for technology development. Innovation and the technology transfer process are discussed in Section 2.8.2.

Technology RDD&D is carried out by both governments (public sector) and companies (private sector). Ideally, the roles of the public and private sectors will be complementary. Flannery 2001 [NPR, ARC] ) argued that it is appropriate for governments to identify the fundamental barriers to technology and find solutions that improve performance, including environmental, cost and safety performance, and perhaps customer acceptability; but that the private sector should bear the risk and capture the rewards of commercializing technology. Case studies of specific successful energy-efficient technologies, including shoe press in papermaking ( Luiten and Blok, 2003a [ARC] ) and strip casting in the steel industry ( Luiten and Blok, 2003b [ARC] ), have shown that a better understanding of the technology and the development process is essential in the design of effective government support of technology development. Government can also play an important role in cultivating ‘champions’ for technology development, and by ‘anchoring’ energy and climate as important continuous drivers for technology development ( Luiten and Blok, 2003a [ARC] ).

While GHG mitigation is not the only objective of energy R&D, IEA studies show a mismatch between R&D spending and the contribution of technologies to reduction of CO₂ emissions. In its analysis of its Accelerated Technology scenarios, IEA 2006a [NPR] ) found that end-use energy efficiency, much of it in the industrial sector, contributed most to mitigation of CO₂ emissions from energy use. It accounted for 39–53% of the projected reduction, except in the scenario that deemphasized these technologies. However, IEA countries spent only 17% of their public energy R&D budgets on energy-efficiency ( IEA, 2005 [NPR] ).

Many studies have indicated that the technology required to reduce GHG emissions and eventually stabilize their atmospheric concentrations is not currently available ( Jacoby, 1998 [NPR] ; Hoffert et al., 2002 [JoC, ARC] ; Edmonds et al., 2003 [NPR, ARC] ) (medium agreement, medium evidence). While these studies concentrated on energy supply options, they also indicate that significant improvements in end-use energy efficiency will be necessary. Much of the necessary research and development is being carried out in public-private partnerships, for example the US Department of Energy’s Industrial Technologies Program (US DOE, n.d.-b).

7.12 Long-term outlook, system transitions, decision-making and inertia

7.13 Key uncertainties and gaps in knowledge

Gaps in knowledge are defined as missing information that could be developed by research. Uncertainties are missing information that cannot be developed through research. Key uncertainties in the projection of mitigation potential and cost in 2030 are:

• The rate of technology development and diffusion;
• The cost of future technology;
• Future energy and carbon prices;
• The level of industry activity in 2030; and
• Policy drivers, both climate and non-climate.

Key gaps in knowledge are: base case energy intensity for specific industries, especially in transition economies; co-benefits, SD implications of mitigation options and consumer preferences.

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NOTE: In the Summary of Reviewer Comments,
Accepted includes only those responses that were unambiguously Accepted.
There are other categories of responses that we have not yet quantified
due to inconsistencies of usage.

Summary of Reviewer Comments - Second Order Draft

Reviewer	Total Comments	Accepted	IPCC Roles	Papers
Government of U.S. Department of State	104	52	0	0
Government of Australia	38	22	0	1
Olivier, JGJ	33	14	1	7
Kessels, John	30	24	0	0
Government of European Community / European Commission	24	10	0	0
Gielen, D	23	8	1	3
Braathen, Nils-Axel	21	6	0	0
Marks, Jerry	17	5	0	0
Government of China Meteorological Administration	12	8	0	0
Nyboer, J	12	3	0	5
Debruxelles, Jean-Pierre	11	1	0	0
Muirheid, Ben	10	2	0	0
Ploger, Friedrich	10	1	0	0
Campbell, Nick	9	3	0	0
Gardiner, A	9	2	0	2
Novotny, Vladimir	8	1	0	0
Wang, Yanjia	8	5	0	0
Bonduelle, Antoine	6	3	0	0
Nziramasanga, Norbert	6	2	0	0
Aguayo, F	6	2	0	1
Government of India	5	1	0	1
Mizuno, Koichi	5	1	0	0
Lorea, Claude	5	3	0	0
Government of Belgium	5	4	0	0
McCulloch, Archie	5	1	0	0
Juhler-Kristoffersen, Helle	4	0	0	0
IPCC	4	2	0	50
Government of Japan	4	2	0	2
Chase, Robert	4	1	0	0
Government of Sweden	3	0	0	0
Taylor, MAP	3	1	0	3
Okayama, Takayuki	3	1	0	0
Miner, R	3	1	1	2
Mollersten, K	3	0	0	2
Akimoto, K	2	2	0	3
Klages-Buechner, Sabine	2	1	0	0
Poot, Brigitte	2	1	0	0
Fenhann, J	2	2	1	3
Rothermel, Joerg	2	0	0	0
de T'Serclaes, Philippine	2	0	0	0
Onuma, E	2	0	0	1
Macey, Kirsten	2	0	0	0
Berntsson, T	2	0	0	1
Izumi, Y	2	0	0	1
Caneill, Jean-Yves	1	0	0	0
Park, Jacob	1	0	0	0
Beerkens, Ruud	1	1	0	0
Jefferson, M	1	0	0	2
Government of Finland	1	0	0	0
Yanagisawa, Y	1	0	0	1
Jones, RJA	1	0	0	2
Koch, Lorenz	1	1	0	0
Maeda, A	1	0	0	1
Masui, T	1	0	0	7
Van Houte, Frederic	1	0	0	0
Hein, Joachim	1	0	0	0
Pitz-Paal, Robert	1	1	0	0
Oren, Kjell	1	0	0	0
Bogner, J	1	0	2	11
Botschek, Peter	1	1	0	0
Totals	489	202	6	112

Overview of Reviewer Comments - Second Order Draft

Reviewer Type	Total Comments	Accepted	% Accepted
Govt	149	74	49%
IPCC	159	62	38%
Indep	181	66	36%
Total	489	202	41%

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