With the exception of Chapter and Section headings, all coloured text has been inserted by AccessIPCC. The non-coloured text is the IPCC original.

A number of emails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia were published on the Internet in November 2009. This has provided a window into the world of climate science.

We have identified a number of key individuals involved in the emails whom we have designated as Persons of Concern [PoC]; a Journal in which a PoC has published has been designated as a Journal of Concern [JoC].

This is not to suggest that we believe such papers are necessarily flawed, but rather that, as Joseph Alcamo noted at Bali in October 2009, "as policymakers and the public begin to grasp the multi-billion dollar price tag for mitigating and adapting to climate change, we should expect a sharper questioning of the science behind climate policy".

References occur in a list at the end of each chapter. Citations are within the normal text of sections and paragraphs.

Definition of Tags Used

Tag	Explanation	Where Used	References	Citations
PoC	Person of Concern Key individual involved in CRU emails as defined in this spreadsheet. NOTE: we anticipate that this definition will be expanded as more data is coded.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	17	23
JoC	Journal of Concern A Journal which has published articles by one or more PoCs (Person of Concern)	References, Citations	141	168
MoS	Model or Simulation Reference appears to be a model or simulation, not observation or experiment	References, Citations	65	67
NPR	Non Peer Reviewed Reference has no Journal or no Volume or no Pages or it has Editors.	References, Citations	249	280
SRC	Self Reference Concern Author of a chapter containing references to own work.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	78	101
ARC	Paper authored or co-authored by person who is also in list of Authors of another chapter.	References, Citations	73	103
2007	Paper dated 2007, when IPCC policy stated cutoff was December 2005 with mid-February 2006 for exceptions.	References, Citations	10	32
Ambiguous	The short inline citation matched with more than one reference; however, AccessIPCC will link to the first reference found.	Citations	-	4
NotFound	The short inline citation was not matched with any reference. Believed to be caused by typing errors.	Citations	-	3
Clean	The reference was probably peer reviewed. The reference was dated before the cutoff (2005-2006). Its authors were not members of the Team. It was not published in a Journal of Concern. Its authors were not AR4 Authors.	References, Citations	119	134

Chapter Table of Contents

Title	Clean	Tagged	NotFound	Ambiguous
Chapter 14: North America	-	-	-	-
14.1 Introduction	-	-	-	-
14.1.1 Key findings from the Third Assessment Report (TAR)	-	1	-	-
14.1.2 Key differences from TAR	-	-	-	-
14.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability	4	21	1	-
14.2.1 Freshwater resources	6	17	-	-
14.2.2 Ecosystems	12	32	-	-
14.2.3 Coastal regions	7	20	-	-
14.2.4 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries	17	25	-	-
14.2.5 Human health	12	9	-	-
14.2.6 Human settlements	6	19	1	-
14.2.7 Tourism and recreation	-	8	-	-
14.2.8 Energy, industry and transportation	2	10	-	-
14.3 Assumptions about future trends	-	-	-	-
14.3.1 Climate	1	10	-	-
14.3.2 Social, economic, and institutional context	-	7	-	-
14.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities	-	-	-	-
14.4.1 Freshwater resources	14	71	-	-
14.4.2 Ecosystems	4	17	-	-
14.4.3 Coastal regions	6	22	1	-
14.4.4 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries	9	44	-	1
14.4.5 Human health	7	9	-	-
14.4.6 Human settlements	4	28	-	1
14.4.7 Tourism and recreation	1	10	-	-
14.4.8 Energy, industry and transportation	10	38	-	1
14.4.9 Interacting impacts	1	18	-	1
14.5 Adaptation: practices, options and constraints	-	4	-	-
14.5.1 Practices and options	3	24	-	-
14.5.2 Mainstreaming adaptation	4	34	-	-
14.5.3 Constraints and opportunities	4	20	-	-
14.6 Case studies	-	-	-	-
14.7 Conclusions: implications for sustainable development	-	1	-	-
14.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities	-	-	-	-
Number of citations of various credibilities	134	519	3	4
Percentages of citations of various credibilities	20.3%	78.6%	0.5%	0.6%

Executive summary

North America has experienced locally severe economic damage, plus substantial ecosystem, social and cultural disruption from recent weather-related extremes, including hurricanes, other severe storms, floods, droughts, heatwaves and wildfires (very high confidence).

Over the past several decades, economic damage from severe weather has increased dramatically, due largely to increased value of the infrastructure at risk. Annual costs to North America have now reached tens of billions of dollars in damaged property and economic productivity, as well as lives disrupted and lost. [ 14.2.3 , 14.2.6 , 14.2.7 , 14.2.8 ]

The vulnerability of North America depends on the effectiveness and timing of adaptation and the distribution of coping capacity, which vary spatially and among sectors (very high confidence).

Although North America has considerable adaptive capacity, actual practices have not always protected people and property from adverse impacts of climate variability and extreme weather events. Especially vulnerable groups include indigenous peoples and those who are socially or economically disadvantaged. Traditions and institutions in North America have encouraged a decentralised response framework where adaptation tends to be reactive, unevenly distributed, and focused on coping with rather than preventing problems. ‘Mainstreaming’ climate change issues into decision making is a key prerequisite for sustainability. [ 14.2.6 , 14.4 , 14.5 , 14.7 ]

Coastal communities and habitats will be increasingly stressed by climate change impacts interacting with development and pollution (very high confidence).

Sea level is rising along much of the coast, and the rate of change will increase in the future, exacerbating the impacts of progressive inundation, storm-surge flooding and shoreline erosion. Storm impacts are likely to be more severe, especially along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Salt marshes, other coastal habitats, and dependent species are threatened by sea-level rise, fixed structures blocking landward migration, and changes in vegetation. Population growth and the rising value of infrastructure in coastal areas increases vulnerability to climate variability and future climate change. Current adaptation is uneven and readiness for increased exposure is low. [ 14.2.3 , 14.4.3 , 14.5 ]

Climate change will constrain North America’s over-allocated water resources, increasing competition among agricultural, municipal, industrial and ecological uses (very high confidence).

Rising temperatures will diminish snowpack and increase evaporation, affecting seasonal availability of water. Higher demand from economic development, agriculture and population growth will further limit surface and groundwater availability. In the Great Lakes and major river systems, lower levels are likely to exacerbate challenges relating to water quality, navigation, recreation, hydropower generation, water transfers and bi-national relationships. [ 14.2.1 , 14.4.1 , 14.4.6 , Boxes 14.2 and 14.3 ]

Climate change impacts on infrastructure and human health and safety in urban centres will be compounded by ageing infrastructure, maladapted urban form and building stock, urban heat islands, air pollution, population growth and an ageing population (very high confidence).

While inertia in the political, economic, and cultural systems complicates near-term action, the long life and high value of North American capital stock make proactive adaptation important for avoiding costly retrofits in coming decades. [ 14.4.5 , 14.4.6 , 14.5 , Box 14.3 ]

Without increased investments in countermeasures, hot temperatures and extreme weather are likely to cause increased adverse health impacts from heat-related mortality, pollution, storm-related fatalities and injuries, and infectious diseases (very high confidence).

Historically important countermeasures include early warning and surveillance systems, air conditioning, access to health care, public education, vector control, infrastructure standards and air quality management. Cities that currently experience heatwaves are expected to experience an increase in intensity and duration of these events by the end of the century, with potential for adverse health effects. The growing number of the elderly is most at risk. Water-borne diseases and degraded water quality are very likely to increase with more heavy precipitation. Warming and climate extremes are likely to increase respiratory illness, including exposure to pollen and ozone. Climate change is likely to increase risk and geographic spread of vector-borne infectious diseases, including Lyme disease and West Nile virus. [ 14.2.5 , 14.2.6 , 14.4.5 , 14.4.6 , 14.5 ]

Disturbances such as wildfire and insect outbreaks are increasing and are likely to intensify in a warmer future with drier soils and longer growing seasons (very high confidence).

Although recent climate trends have increased vegetation growth, continuing increases in disturbances are likely to limit carbon storage, facilitate invasive species, and disrupt ecosystem services. Warmer summer temperatures are expected to extend the annual window of high fire ignition risk by 10-30%, and could result in increased area burned of 74-118% in Canada by 2100 . Over the 21st century, pressure for species to shift north and to higher elevations will fundamentally rearrange North American ecosystems. Differential capacities for range shifts and constraints from development, habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and broken ecological connections will alter ecosystem structure, function and services. [ 14.2.4 , 14.2.2 , 14.4.2 , Box 14.1 ]

14.1 Introduction

The United States (U.S.) and Canada will experience climate changes through direct effects of local changes (e.g., temperature, precipitation and extreme weather events), as well as through indirect effects, transmitted among regions by interconnected economies and migrations of humans and other species. Variations in wealth and geography, however, lead to an uneven distribution of likely impacts, vulnerabilities and capacities to adapt. This chapter reviews and synthesises the state of knowledge on direct and indirect impacts, vulnerability and adaptations for North America (comprising Canada and the U.S). Hawaii and other U.S. protectorates are discussed in Chapter 16 on Small Islands, and Mexico and Central America are treated in Chapter 13 on Latin America. Chapter 15 , Polar Regions, covers high-latitude issues and peoples.

14.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability

Annual mean air temperature, on the whole, increased in North America for the period 1955 to 2005, with the greatest warming in Alaska and north-western Canada, substantial warming in the continental interior and modest warming in the south-eastern U.S. and eastern Canada ( Figure 14.1 ). Spring and winter show the greatest changes in temperature ( Karl et al., 1996 [PoC, JoC] ; Hengeveld et al., 2005 [NPR] ) and daily minimum (night-time) temperatures have warmed more than daily maximum (daytime) temperatures ( Karl et al., 2005 [NPR, PoC, MoS] ;( Vincent and Mekis, 2006 ) ). The length of the vegetation growing season has increased an average of 2 days/decade since 1950 in Canada and the conterminous U.S., with most of the increase resulting from earlier spring warming ( Bonsal et al., 2001 [JoC] ; Easterling, 2002 [JoC] ; Bonsal and Prowse, 2003 [JoC, ARC] ;( Feng and Hu, 2004 ) ). The warming signal in North America during the latter half of the 20th century reflects the combined influence of greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols and natural external forcing ( Karoly et al., 2003 [JoC, ARC] ; Stott, 2003 [NPR, JoC] ; Zwiers and Zhang, 2003 [JoC] ).

Annual precipitation has increased for most of North America with large increases in northern Canada, but with decreases in the south-west U.S., the Canadian Prairies and the eastern Arctic (see Working Group I Fourth Assessment (WGI AR4) Trenberth et al., 2007 [NPR, PoC, 2007] Section 3.3.2.2, Figures 3.13 and 3.14) ( Hengeveld et al., 2005 [NPR] ; Shein, 2006 [NPR, JoC] ). Heavy precipitation frequencies in the U.S. were at a minimum in the 1920 s and 1930 s, and increased to the 1990 s ( 1895 to 2000 ( Kunkel, 2003 [NPR, JoC] ; Groisman et al., 2004 [PoC, JoC] ). In Canada there is no consistent trend in extreme precipitation ( (Vincent and Mekis, 2006 ) ).

14.3 Assumptions about future trends

14.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities

14.5 Adaptation: practices, options and constraints

The U.S. and Canada are developed economies with extensive infrastructure and mature institutions, with important regional and socio-economic variations ( NAST, 2000 [NPR] ; Lemmen and Warren, 2004 [NPR] ). These capabilities have led to adaptation and coping strategies across a wide range of historic conditions, with both successes and failures. Most studies on adaptive strategies consider implementation based on past experiences ( Paavola and Adger, 2002 [NPR] ). Examples of adaptation based on future projections are rare ( Smit and Wall, 2003 [NPR, ARC] ; Devon, 2005 ). Expanding beyond reactive adaptation to proactive, anticipatory adaptive strategies presents many challenges. Progress toward meeting these challenges is just beginning in North America.

14.6 Case studies

Many of the topics discussed in this chapter have important dimensions, including interactions with other sectors, regions and processes, that make them difficult to assess from the perspective of a single sector. This chapter develops multi-sector case studies on three topics of special importance to North America – forest disturbances (see Box 14.1 ), water resources (using the Columbia River as an example) (see Box 14.2 ) and coastal cities (see Box 14.3 ).

14.7 Conclusions: implications for sustainable development

Climate change creates a broad range of difficult challenges that influence the attainment of sustainability goals. Several of the most difficult emerge from the long time-scale over which the changes occur (see Section 14.3 ) and the possible need for action well before the magnitude (and certainty) of the impacts is clear (see Section 14.5 ). Other difficult problems arise from the intrinsic global scale of climate change ( EIA, 2005b [NPR] ). Because the drivers of climate change are truly global, even dedicated action at the regional scale has limited prospects for ameliorating regional-scale impacts. These two sets of challenges, those related to time-scale and those related to the global nature of climate change, are not in the classes that have traditionally yielded to the free-market mechanisms and political decision making that historically characterise Canada and the U.S. (see Section 14.5 ). Yet, the magnitude of the climate change challenge calls for proactive adaptation and technological and social innovation, areas where Canada and the U.S. have abundant capacity. An important key to success will be developing the capacity to incorporate climate change information into adaptation in the context of other important technological, social, economic and ecological trends.

The preceding sections describe current knowledge concerning the recent climate experience of North America, the impacts of the changes that have already occurred, and the potential for future changes. They also describe historical experience with and future prospects for dealing with climate impacts. The key points are:

• North America has experienced substantial social, cultural, economic and ecological disruption from recent climate-related extremes, especially storms, heatwaves and wildfires [ 14.2 ].
• Continuing infrastructure development, especially in vulnerable zones, will likely lead to continuing increases in economic damage from extreme weather [ 14.2.6 , 14.4.6 ].
• The vulnerability of North America depends on the effectiveness of adaptation and the distribution of coping capacity, both of which are currently uneven and have not always protected vulnerable groups from adverse impacts of climate variability and extreme weather events [ 14.5 ].
• A key prerequisite for sustainability is ‘mainstreaming’ climate issues into decision making [ 14.5 ].
• Climate change will exacerbate stresses on diverse sectors in North America, including, but not limited to, urban centres, coastal communities, human health, water resources and managed and unmanaged ecosystems [ 14.4 ].
• Indigenous peoples of North America and those who are socially and economically disadvantaged are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change [ 14.2.6 , 14.4.6 ].

14.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities

The major limits in understanding of climate change impacts on North America, and on the ability of its people, economies and ecosystems to adapt to these changes, can be grouped into seven areas.

• Projections of climate changes still have important uncertainties; especially on a regional scale (Christensen et al., 2007: Section 11.5.3). For North America, the greater uncertainty about future precipitation than about future temperature substantially expands the uncertainty of a broad range of impacts on ecosystems (see Section 14.4.2 ), hydrology and water resources (see Sections 14.4.1 , 14.4.7 ), and on industries (see Sections 14.4.6 , 14.4.7 ).
• North American people, economies and ecosystems tend to be much more sensitive to extremes than to average conditions [ 14.2 ]. Incomplete understanding of the relationship between changes in the average climate and extremes (Meehl et al., 2007: Section 10.3.6; Christensen et al., 2007: Section 11.5.3.3) limits our ability to connect future conditions with future impacts and the options for adaptation. There is a need for improved understanding of the relationship between changes in average climate and those extreme events with the greatest potential impact on North America, including hurricanes, other severe storms, heatwaves, floods, and prolonged droughts.
• For most impacts of climate change, we have at least some tools for estimating gradual change (see Section 14.4 ), but we have few tools for assessing the conditions that lead to tipping points, where a system changes or deteriorates rapidly, perhaps without further forcing.
• Most of the past research has addressed impacts on a single sector (e.g., health, transportation, unmanaged ecosystems). Few studies address the interacting responses of diverse sectors impacted by climate change, making it very difficult to evaluate the extent to which multi-sector responses limit options or push situations toward tipping points (see Section 14.4.9 ).
• Very little past research addresses impacts of climate change in a context of other trends with the potential to exacerbate impacts of climate change or to limit the range of response options (see Section 14.4.9 ) (but see Reid et al., 2005 for an important exception). A few North American examples of trends likely to complicate the development of strategies for dealing with climate change include continuing development in coastal areas (see Section 14.2.3 ), increasing demand on freshwater resources (see Section 14.4.1 ), the accumulation of fuel in forest ecosystems susceptible to wildfire (see Box 14.1 ), and continued introductions of invasive species with the potential to disrupt agriculture and ecosystem processes (see Section 14.2.2 , 14.2.4). In the sectors that are the subject of the most intense human management (e.g., health, agriculture, settlements, industry), it is possible that changes in technology or organisation could exacerbate or ameliorate impacts of climate change (see Section 14.4.9 ).
• Indirect impacts of climate change are poorly understood. In a world of ever-increasing globalisation, the future of North American people, economies and ecosystems is connected to the rest of the world through a dense network of cultural exchanges, trade, mixing of ecosystems, human migration and, regrettably, conflict (see Section 14.3 ). In this interconnected world, it is possible that profoundly important impacts of climate change on North America will be indirect consequences of climate change impacts on other regions, especially where people, economies or ecosystems are unusually vulnerable.
• Examples of North American adaptations to climate-related impacts are abundant, but understanding of the options for proactive adaptation to conditions outside the range of historical experience is limited (see Section 14.5 ).

All of these areas potentially interact, with impacts that are unevenly distributed among regions, industries, and communities. Progress in research and management is occurring in all these areas. Yet stakeholders and decision makers need information immediately, placing a high priority on strategies for providing useful decision support in the context of current knowledge, conditioned by an appreciation of the limits of that knowledge.

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NOTE: In the Summary of Reviewer Comments,
Accepted includes only those responses that were unambiguously Accepted.
There are other categories of responses that we have not yet quantified
due to inconsistencies of usage.

Summary of Reviewer Comments - Second Order Draft

Reviewer	Total Comments	Accepted	IPCC Roles	Papers
Winkler, Julie	169	2	0	0
Government of Canada	62	4	0	0
Lemmen, DS	60	8	0	1
Sauchyn, David	54	0	0	0
Bourque, Alain	53	1	0	0
Government of Finland	42	2	0	0
Goklany, IM	36	0	0	15
Government of USA	34	2	0	0
Ebi, KL	28	0	4	24
Victor, Peter	28	0	0	0
Lofgren, BM	25	0	0	3
Wall, E	17	1	0	3
Vasseur, Liette	13	0	0	0
Taylor, Robert	13	1	0	0
Church, Ian	11	0	0	0
Palutikof, JP	11	1	2	7
McCabe, GJ	10	0	0	4
Smith, SJ	9	0	0	16
Hare, W	8	0	0	2
Miles, EL	8	0	0	5
Wall, GW	4	0	0	6
Shafer, SL	3	0	0	3
Moore, TG	3	0	0	0
Government of Australia	2	0	0	0
Changnon, SA	1	0	0	9
Ceron, JP	1	0	1	3
Government of Austria	1	0	0	0
Pauli, H	1	0	0	8
Totals	707	22	7	109

Overview of Reviewer Comments - Second Order Draft

Reviewer Type	Total Comments	Accepted	% Accepted
Govt	141	8	5%
IPCC	222	10	4%
Indep	344	4	1%
Total	707	22	3%

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