With the exception of Chapter and Section headings, all coloured text has been inserted by AccessIPCC. The non-coloured text is the IPCC original.

A number of emails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia were published on the Internet in November 2009. This has provided a window into the world of climate science.

We have identified a number of key individuals involved in the emails whom we have designated as Persons of Concern [PoC]; a Journal in which a PoC has published has been designated as a Journal of Concern [JoC].

This is not to suggest that we believe such papers are necessarily flawed, but rather that, as Joseph Alcamo noted at Bali in October 2009, "as policymakers and the public begin to grasp the multi-billion dollar price tag for mitigating and adapting to climate change, we should expect a sharper questioning of the science behind climate policy".

References occur in a list at the end of each chapter. Citations are within the normal text of sections and paragraphs.

Definition of Tags Used

Tag	Explanation	Where Used	References	Citations
PoC	Person of Concern Key individual involved in CRU emails as defined in this spreadsheet. NOTE: we anticipate that this definition will be expanded as more data is coded.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	2	2
JoC	Journal of Concern A Journal which has published articles by one or more PoCs (Person of Concern)	References, Citations	31	49
MoS	Model or Simulation Reference appears to be a model or simulation, not observation or experiment	References, Citations	24	24
NPR	Non Peer Reviewed Reference has no Journal or no Volume or no Pages or it has Editors.	References, Citations	135	154
SRC	Self Reference Concern Author of a chapter containing references to own work.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	36	57
ARC	Paper authored or co-authored by person who is also in list of Authors of another chapter.	References, Citations	41	46
2007	Paper dated 2007, when IPCC policy stated cutoff was December 2005 with mid-February 2006 for exceptions.	References, Citations	5	7
Ambiguous	The short inline citation matched with more than one reference; however, AccessIPCC will link to the first reference found.	Citations	-	-
NotFound	The short inline citation was not matched with any reference. Believed to be caused by typing errors.	Citations	-	6
Clean	The reference was probably peer reviewed. The reference was dated before the cutoff (2005-2006). Its authors were not members of the Team. It was not published in a Journal of Concern. Its authors were not AR4 Authors.	References, Citations	46	58

Chapter Table of Contents

Title	Clean	Tagged	NotFound	Ambiguous
Chapter 7: Industry, Settlement and Society	-	-	-	-
7.1 Introduction	-	-	-	-
7.1.1 Key issues	-	6	-	-
7.1.2 Scope of the chapter	-	-	-	-
7.1.3 Human systems in context	-	3	-	-
7.1.4 Conclusions of the IPCC Third Assessment Report	-	2	-	-
7.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability	4	11	-	-
7.3 Assumptions about future trends	-	11	-	-
7.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities	-	2	-	-
7.4.1 General effects	1	12	-	-
7.4.2 Systems of interest	-	-	-	-
7.4.2.1 Industry	4	17	-	-
7.4.2.2 Services	-	-	-	-
7.4.2.2.1 Trade	-	1	-	-
7.4.2.2.2 Retail and commercial services	1	4	1	-
7.4.2.2.3 Tourism	5	14	-	-
7.4.2.2.4 Insurance	2	10	1	-
7.4.2.3 Utilities/infrastructure	-	2	-	-
7.4.2.3.1 Water supplies	2	5	-	-
7.4.2.3.2 Sanitation and urban drainage	1	1	-	-
7.4.2.3.3 Transport, power and communications infrastructures	-	5	-	-
7.4.2.4 Human settlement	14	25	1	-
7.4.2.5 Social issues	11	17	3	-
7.4.3 Key vulnerabilities	-	-	-	-
7.5 Costs and other socio-economic issues	1	19	-	-
7.6 Adaptation: practices, options and constraints	-	-	-	-
7.6.1 General perspectives	2	4	-	-
7.6.2 Industry	3	8	-	-
7.6.3 Services	2	7	-	-
7.6.4 Utilities/infrastructure	-	-	-	-
7.6.5 Human settlement	2	11	-	-
7.6.6 Social issues	3	25	-	-
7.6.7 Key adaptation issues	-	2	-	-
7.7 Conclusions: implications for sustainable development	-	7	-	-
7.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities	-	3	-	-
Number of citations of various credibilities	58	234	6	0
Percentages of citations of various credibilities	19.5%	78.5%	2.0%	0.0%

Executive summary

Climate-change vulnerabilities of industry, settlement and society are mainly related to extreme weather events rather than to gradual climate change (very high confidence).

The significance of gradual climate change, e.g., increases in the mean temperature, lies mainly in changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme events, although gradual changes can also be associated with thresholds beyond which impacts become significant, such as in the capacities of infrastructures. [ 7.2 , 7.4 ]

Aside from major extreme events and thresholds, climate change is seldom the main factor in considering stresses on the sustainability of industry, settlements and society (very high confidence).

The significance of climate change (positive or negative) lies in its interactions with other non-climate sources of change and stress, and its impacts should be considered in such a multi-cause context. [ 7.1.3 , 7.2 , 7.4 ]

Vulnerabilities to climate change depend considerably on specific geographic, sectoral and social contexts (very high confidence).

They are not reliably estimated by large-scale (aggregate) modelling and estimation. [ 7.2 , 7.4 ]

Vulnerabilities of industry, infrastructures, settlements and society to climate change are generally greater in certain high-risk locations, particularly coastal and riverine areas, and areas whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources, such as agricultural and forest product industries, water demands and tourism; these vulnerabilities tend to be localised but are often large and growing (high confidence).

For example, rapid urbanisation in most low and middle income nations, often in relatively high-risk areas, is placing an increasing proportion of their economies and populations at risk. [ 7.3 , 7.4 , 7.5 ]

Where extreme weather events become more intense and/or more frequent with climate change, the economic and social costs of those events will increase (high confidence).

Experience indicates that costs of major events can range from several percent of annual regional gross domestic product (GDP) and income generation in very large regions with very large economies to more than 25% in smaller areas that are affected by the events. Climate-change impacts spread from directly impacted areas and sectors to other areas and sectors through extensive and complex linkages. [ 7.4 , 7.5 ]

Poor communities can be especially vulnerable, in particular those concentrated in relatively high-risk areas (high confidence).

They tend to have more limited adaptive capacities, and are more dependent on climate-sensitive resources such as local water and food supplies. [ 7.2 , 7.4 , 5.4 ]

Industry, settlements and society are often capable of considerable adaptation, depending heavily on the competence and capacity of individuals, communities, enterprises and local governments, together with access to financial and other resources (very high confidence).

But that capacity has limits, especially when confronted by climate changes that are relatively extreme or persistent. [ 7.4.3 , 7.6 ]

Although most adaptations reflect local circumstances, adaptation strategies for industry and settlement and, to a lesser degree, for society, can be supported by linkages with national and global systems that increase potentials and resources for action (very high confidence). [ 7.6.6 ]

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability

A frequent objective of human societies is to reduce their sensitivity to weather and climate, for example, by controlling the climate in buildings within which people live, shop and work or by controlling the channels and flows of rivers or the configurations of sea coasts. Recent experience with weather variability, however, reminds us that - at least at feasible levels of investment and technological development - human control over climate-related aspects of nature can be limited (see Box 7.4 ).

In fact, sensitivities of human systems to climate and climate change abound:

1. Environmental quality is a case in point, where weather and climate can affect air and water pollution and, in cases of extreme events, exposures to wastes that are hazardous to health. Consider the interaction between the ambient air temperature of an urban area and its concentration of ozone, which can have adverse health implications ( Hogrefe et al., 2004 [MoS, ARC] ; Section 7.4.2.4 ; Chapter 8 ), or effects of hurricane flooding on exposures to health threats ( (Marris, 2005 ) ).

2. Linkage systems, such as transportation and transmission systems for industry and settlements (e.g., water, food supply, energy, information systems and waste disposal), are important in delivering ecosystem and other services to support human well-being, and can be subject to climate-related extreme events such as floods, landslides, fire and severe storms. Such exposed infrastructures as bridges and electricity transmission networks are especially vulnerable, as in the experience of Hurricane Georges in 1998, which threatened port and oil storage facilities in the Dominican Republic ( REC, 2004 [NPR] ), or the 2005 experience with Hurricane Katrina ( Box 7.4 ; Section 7.4.2.3 ).

3. Other physical infrastructures can be affected by weather and climate as well. For example, the rate of deterioration of external shells of building structures is weather-related, depending on the materials used, and buildings are affected by water-logging related to precipitation patterns. Another kind of impact is on demands for physical infrastructures; for instance, demands for water supplies and energy supplies related to temperature.

4. Social systems are also vulnerable, especially to extreme events (e.g., Box 7.1 ). Storms and floods can damage homes and other shelters and disrupt social networks and means to sustain livelihoods; and risks of such impacts shape structures for emergency preparedness, especially where impacted populations have a strong influence on policy-making. Climate is related to the quality of life in complex ways, including recreational patterns, and changes in temperature and humidity can change health care challenges and requirements ( Chapter 8 ). For instance, it has been estimated that of the 131 million people affected by natural disasters in Asia in 2004, 97% were affected by weather-related disasters. Exposures in highly-populated coastal and riverine areas and small island nations have been especially significant (ADRC et al., 2005 ). Moreover, some references suggest relationships between weather and climate on the one hand and social stresses on the other, especially in urban areas where the poor lack access to climate-controlled shelters (e.g., the term ‘long, hot summers’ associated in the 1960 s in the United States with summer urban riots; also see ( Arsenault, 1984 ) and Box 7.1 ). In some cases, tolerance for climatic variation is limited, for example in tightly-coupled urban systems where low capacity drinking water systems have limited resilience in the face of drought or population growth, not only in developing countries but also in industrialised countries. Another case is the sensitivity of energy production to heatwaves and drought ( Box 7.1 ; Section 7.4.2.1 ).

5. Climate can be a factor in an area’s comparative advantage for economic production and growth. Climate affects some of an area’s assets for economic production and services, from agricultural and fibre products ( Chapter 5 ) to tourist attractions. Climate also affects costs of business operation, e.g., costs of climate control in office, production and storage buildings. Not only can climate affect an area’s own economic patterns; it can also affect the competitive position of its markets and competitors, and thus affect prospects for local employment and individual livelihoods. Many workers are ‘marginal’, whose livelihoods can be especially sensitive to any changes in conditions affecting local economies.

6. Impacts of climate on industry, settlements and society can be either direct or indirect. For instance, temperature increases can affect air pollutant concentrations in urban areas, which in turn change exposures to respiratory problems in the population, which then impact health care systems ( Chapter 8 ). Tropical storms can affect the livelihoods and economies of coastal communities through effects on coral reefs, mangroves and other coastal ecosystems ( Adger et al., 2005a [JoC, ARC] ). Tracing out such second, third, and higher-order indirect impacts, especially in advance, is a significant challenge.

7. Impacts are not equally experienced by every portion of an industrial structure or a population. Some industrial sectors and the very young, the very old and the very poor tend to be more vulnerable to climate impacts than the general economy and population ( Box 7.1 ; Section 7.4.2.5 ). Some of these differences are also regional, more problematic in developing regions and intricately related to development processes ( ISDR, 2004 [NPR] ).

Current sensitivities to climate change are briefly summarised in Chapter 1 of this Fourth Assessment Report, and in a number of cases they are relevant for the Millennium Development Goals (for a brief discussion of MDGs in the context of possible climate-change impacts on industry, settlement and society see Section 7.6 ; also Chapter 20 ).

Tourism is an example of an economic sector where there has been substantial recent research to understand its sensitivity to climate ( Besancenot, 1989 [NPR] ;( Gomez-Martin, 2005 ) ); the emphasis on climate change is, however, more recent ( Scott et al., 2005a [NPR, ARC] , b). For example, travel decisions are often based on a desire for warm and sunny environments, while winter tourism builds on expectations of snow and snow-covered landscapes ( Chapter 14 , Section 14.4.7 ; Chapter 12 , Section 12.4.9 ; Chapter 11 , Section 11.4.9 ). Tourism is thus sensitive to a range of climate variables such as temperature, hours of sunshine, precipitation, humidity, and storm intensity and frequency (Matzarakis and de Frietas, 2001; Matzarakis et al., 2004 [NPR, ARC] ), along with the consequences that may follow, such as fires, floods, landslides, coastal erosion and disease outbreaks.

7.3 Assumptions about future trends

Defining possible future socio-economic conditions is a key to understanding future vulnerabilities to climatic change and assessing the capacity to adapt in the face of new risks and opportunities. A range of tools, including scenarios and storylines, has been used to develop characterisations of the future ( Chapter 2 ). While specific characterisations have been developed for vulnerability and adaptation studies in certain climate-sensitive sectors (for example, Arnell et al., 2004 [JoC, ARC] ; Nicholls, 2004 [JoC, ARC] ), few characterisations have been developed that relate specifically to climate impacts as they could affect industry, settlement and society. Where such characterisations have been done (e.g., NACC, 2000 [NPR] ; London Climate Change Partnership, 2004; Raskin et al., 2005 [NPR, ARC] ), they have common roots in the perspectives embedded in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES; Nakićenović and Swart, 2000 [NPR] ; see also Chapter 2 , Section 2.4.6 ). Drivers in the SRES scenarios – population, economic growth, technology and governance – are all highly relevant for the development of industry, settlement and society.

A key future condition, for instance, is human population and its distribution. According to the latest United Nations projections (i.e., post-SRES), even as the rate of population growth continues to decline, the world’s total population will rise substantially. The total is expected to reach between 8.7 and 9.3 billion in 2030 ( UN, 2004 [NPR] ). More than half these people live in urban centres, and practically all live in settlements, many depending on industry, services and infrastructures for jobs, well-being and mobility. Most population growth will take place in cities, largely in urban areas of developing countries, especially from Asia and Africa ( Table 7.1 ). Some mega-cities will grow very substantially, but the major population growth will take place in medium cities of 1 to 5 million people and in small cities of under 500,000 people, which still represent half of the world population ( Table 7.1 , see also UN-Habitat, 2003 ).

Features of development relevant to adaptation, such as access to resources, location and institutional capacity, are likely to be predominantly urban and to be determined by differences in economic growth and access to assets, which tend to be increasingly unequal (e.g., the income gap between the richest and the poorest 20% of the world population went from a factor of 32 to 78 between 1970 and 2000 : UN-Habitat, 2003 ). It is estimated that one third of the world’s urban population (923.9 million) live in “overcrowded and unserviced slums, often situated on marginal and dangerous land” (i.e., steep slopes, food plains, and industrial zones), and that 43% are in developing countries (UN-Habitat, 2003 ). It is projected that in the next 30 years “the total number of slum dwellers will increase to about 2 billion, if firm and concrete action is not taken” (UN-Habitat, 2003 ).

Risk-prone settlements such as in coastal areas are expected to experience not only increases in weather-related disasters ( CRED, 2005 [NPR] ) but also major increases in population, urban area and economic activity, especially in developing countries ( Chapter 6 ). Growing population and wealth in exposed coastal locations could result in increased economic and social damage, both in developing and developed countries ( Pielke et al., 2005 [JoC] ; Box 7.4 ).

Global economic growth projections in SRES and SRES-derived scenarios ( Chapter 2 ) vary significantly - more than population projections. Under low-growth scenarios (A2 and B2), world GDP would double by 2020 and increase more than 10-fold by 2100 . Under a high-growth scenario (A1), world GDP would nearly triple by 2020 and grow over 25-fold by 2100 . Under all these scenarios, more valuable assets and activities are likely to become exposed to climate risks, but it is assumed that the economic potential to respond will also vastly increase. Economic development will be central to adaptive capacity ( Toth and Wilbanks, 2004 [NPR, SRC] ). SRES scenarios also assume convergence of national per capita incomes, which is contrary to historical tendencies for income gaps between the rich and the poor to increase. While the ratio of per capita incomes in developed as compared with developing countries stood at 16.1 in 1990, SRES scenarios assume a narrowing of this ratio to between 8.4 and 6.2 in 2020, and between 3.0 and 1.5 in 2100 . Smaller differences in relative incomes are likely to have important consequences for the perception of climate vulnerability and for the pattern of response.

Because it is potentially highly dynamic, the treatment of technology varies greatly between global scenario exercises. For instance, three qualitatively-different technology scenarios were developed for SRES scenario A1 alone (A1FI, A1T and A1B). An even broader universe of technological change scenarios can be developed for global and downscaled national, regional and sectoral scenarios (e.g., Berkhout and Hertin, 2002 [MoS, SRC] ). In this chapter we make no specific assumptions about the rate and direction of technological change into the future, recognising that very wide ranges of potentials will exist at the local and organisational levels at which climate vulnerability and responses will often be shaped, and also that the knowledge base referenced in the chapter reflects a range of assumptions about future trends. Governance is likewise a topic about which different scenario families make divergent assumptions. The SRES scenarios include both globally-integrated systems of economic and political and sustainability governance, as well as more fragmented, regionalised systems. The Global Scenarios Group set of scenarios include characterisations in which institutions and governance as we know them persist with minor reform; ‘barbarisation’ scenarios consider futures in which “absolute poverty increases and the gap between rich and poor …[and] national governments lose relevance and power relative to trans-national corporations and global market forces…” ( Gallopin et al., 1997 [NPR] ); ‘great transitions’ scenarios contain storylines in which sustainable development becomes an organising principle in governance. In this chapter we also have made no specific assumptions about the nature of future pattern of governance, while recognising that institutional capacity will be central to adaptive capacity ( Section 7.6.5 ; also see Chapter 2 ).

7.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities

The ability to project how climate change may affect industry, settlement and society is limited by uncertainties about climate change itself at a relatively fine-grained geographical and sectoral scale and also by uncertainties about trends in human systems over the next century regardless of climate change ( Chapter 2 ). In some cases, uncertainties about socio-economic factors such as technological and institutional change over many decades undermine the feasibility of comparing future prospects involving considerable climate change with prospects involving relatively little climate change. Typically, therefore, research often focuses on vulnerabilities to impacts of climate change (defined as the degree to which a system, subsystem or system component is likely to experience harm due to exposure to a perturbation or source of stress ( Turner et al., 2003a [JoC] ; also see Clark et al., 2000 [NPR] ) rather than on projections of impacts of change on evolving socio-economic systems, especially in the longer run.

Furthermore, climate change will not often be a primary factor in changes for industry, settlement and society. Instead, it will have an impact by modifying other more significant aspects of ongoing socio-economic changes. This may have either an exacerbating or an ameliorating effect in influencing overall vulnerabilities to multi-causal change. It is especially difficult to associate levels of climate-change impacts or their costs with a specified number of degrees of mean global warming or with a particular time horizon such as 2050 or 2080, when so many of the main drivers of impacts and costs are not directly climate-related, even though they may be climate-associated, and when impacts are often highly localised. Some projections have been made for particular sectors or areas and they are cited in appropriate sections below; but in general they should be considered with caution, especially for longer-range futures.

7.5 Costs and other socio-economic issues

Costs or benefits of climate change-related impacts on industry, settlements and society are difficult to estimate. Reasons include the facts that effects to date that are clearly attributable to climate change are limited, most of the relatively small number of estimates of macroeconomic costs of climate change refer to total economies rather than to the more specific subject matter of this chapter, and generalising from scattered cases that are not necessarily representative of the global portfolio of situations is risky. Historical experience is of limited value when the potentially impacted systems are themselves changing (e.g., with global economic restructuring and development, and technological change), and many types of costs – especially to society – are poorly captured by monetary metrics. In many cases, the only current guides to projecting possible costs of climate change are costs associated with recent extreme weather events of types projected to increase in intensity and/or frequency, although this is only one kind of possible impact and cannot be assumed to be representative of aggregate costs and benefits of all aspects of climate change, including more gradual change.

Estimates of aggregate macroeconomic costs of climate change at a global scale (e.g., Smith et al., 2001 [NPR, ARC] ) are not directly useful for this chapter, other than generally illustrating that because many locations, industrial sectors and settlements are not highly vulnerable, total monetary impacts at that scale might not be large in proportion to the global economy. As Section 7.4 indicates, however, vulnerabilities of or opportunities for particular localities and/or sectors and/or societies could be considerable. A possible example is climate-related contributions to changes already being experienced by societies and settlements in the Arctic, which include destabilised buildings, roads, airports and industrial facilities and other effects of permafrost conditions, requiring substantial rebuilding, maintenance and investments ( ACIA, 2004 [NPR] ). An impact assessment in the UK projected that annual weather-related damages to land uses and properties could increase by 3 to 9 times by the 2080 s ( (Harman et al., 2005 ) ). More generally, as one specific aspect of vulnerabilities to climate change, possible economic costs of sea-level rise have been estimated, since exposures of coastal areas to a specified scenario can be analysed for costs of the change v. costs of protecting against the change; and effects of direct costs in coastal areas can be projected for other parts of a regional or national economy ( Nicholls and Tol, 2006 [JoC, ARC] ; Tol et al., 2006 [SRC] ). Generally, these studies conclude that the costs of full protection are greater than the costs of losing land to sea-level rise, although they do not estimate non-monetary costs of social and cultural effects.

Recent climate-related extreme weather events have been associated with cost estimates for countries and economic sectors; and trends in these costs have been examined, especially by the reinsurance industry (e.g., Swiss Re, 2004 [NPR] ; Munich Re, 2005 [NPR] ; also Chapter 1 , Section 1.3.8 ). According to these estimates, an increase in the intensity and/or frequency of weather-based natural disasters, such as hurricanes, floods or droughts, could be associated with very large costs to targeted regions in terms of economic losses and losses of life and disruptions of livelihoods, depending on such variables as the level of social and economic development, the economic value of property and infrastructure affected, capacities of local institutions to cope with the resulting stresses, and the effective use of risk reduction strategies. Estimates of impacts on a relatively small country’s GDP in the year of the event range from 4 to 6% (Mozambique flooding: Cairncross and Alvarinho, 2006 [NPR, MoS, SRC] ) to 3% (El Niño in Central America: www.eclac.cl/mexico/ and follow the link to ’desastres‘) to 7% (Hurricane Mitch in Honduras: Figure 7.3). Even though these macroeconomic impacts appear relatively minor, countries facing an emergency found it necessary to incur increased public spending and obtain significant support from the international donor community in order to meet the needs of affected populations. This increased fiscal imbalances and current account external deficits in many countries.

For specific regions and locales, of course, the impact on a local economy can be considerably greater (see Box 7.4 ). Estimates suggest that impacts can exceed GDP and gross capital formation in percentages that vary from less than 10% in larger, more developed and diversified impacted regions to more than 50% in less developed, less diversified, more natural resource-dependent regions ( Zapata-Marti, 2004 [NPR, SRC] ).

It seems likely that if extreme weather events become more intense and/or more frequent with climate change, GDP growth over time could be adversely affected unless investments are made in adaptation and resilience.

Research has also considered costs of extreme weather-related events on certain sectors of interest, especially water-supply infrastructures. For instance, if reduced precipitation due to climate change were to result in an interruption of urban water supplies, effects could include disruptions of industrial activity as well as hardships for population, especially the poor, who have the fewest options for alternative supplies. The cost of extending pipelines is considerable, especially if it means that water treatment works also have to be relocated. As a rough working rule, the cost of construction of the abstraction and treatment works and the pumping main for an urban settlement’s water supply is about half the cost of the entire system. The cost of flood damage is often even more considerable. For example, the catastrophic flooding of southern Mozambique in 2000 caused damage to water supplies which cost US$13.4 million to repair, or roughly US$50 per person directly affected, of the same order as the cost of providing them with water supplies in the first place (World Bank, 2000 [NPR] ). Part of the explanation is that the damaged water supplies also served people whose homes were not directly affected by the flooding; this can be expected to occur in other floods. Nicholls 2004 [JoC, ARC] ) has estimated that some 10 million people are affected annually by coastal flooding, and that this number is likely to increase until 2020 under all four SRES scenarios, largely because of the increase in the exposed population.

A longer-term concern for industry, settlements and society in developed countries is the prospect of abrupt climate change, which could exceed coping mechanisms in many settlements and societies that would be resilient to gradual climate change (National Research Council, 2002 ). In such a case, fixed infrastructures are especially vulnerable, although the research literature is very limited.

Reliable estimates of costs associated with more gradual climate change are scarce, for reasons summarised above, although in some cases cost estimates of adaptation strategies are available ( Chapter 17 ). In general, costs that can be addressed strategically over periods of time have different implications for industry, settlements and society than relatively sudden costs (e.g., Hallegatte et al., 2007 [ARC, 2007] ). For a combination of gradual changes and extreme events, several recent studies indicate that climate change could reduce the rate of GDP growth over time unless vulnerabilities are addressed ( Van Kooten, 2004 [NPR] ; Stern, 2007 [NPR, 2007] ).

The existing literature is, in these ways, useful in considering possible costs of climate change for industry, settlement and society; but it is not sufficient to estimate costs globally or regionally associated with any specific scenario of climate change. What can be said at the present time is that economic costs of extreme weather events at a large national or large regional scale, estimated as a percent of gross product in the year of the event, are unlikely to represent more than several percent of the value of the total economy, except for possible abrupt changes (high confidence), while net aggregate economic costs of extreme event impacts in smaller locations, especially in developing countries, could in the short run exceed 25% of the gross product in that year (high confidence). To the degree that these events increase in intensity and/or frequency, they will represent significant costs due to climate change. For industry, settlements and society, economic valuations of other costs and benefits associated with climate change are generally not yet available.

7.6 Adaptation: practices, options and constraints

7.7 Conclusions: implications for sustainable development

Sustainable development is largely about people, their well-being, and equity in their relationships with each other, in a context where nature-society imbalances can threaten economic and social stability. Because climate change, its drivers, its impacts and its policy responses will interact with economic production and services, human settlements and human societies, climate change is likely to be a significant factor in the sustainable development of many areas (e.g., Downing, 2002 [SRC] ). Simply stated, climate change has the potential to affect many aspects of human development, positively or negatively, depending on the geographic location, the economic sector, and the level of economic and social development already attained (e.g., regarding particular vulnerabilities of the poor, see Dow and Wilbanks, 2003 [NPR, SRC] ). Because settlements and industry are often focal points for both mitigation and adaptation policy-making and action, these interactions are likely to be at the heart of many kinds of development-oriented responses to concerns about climate change.

In most cases, with the Arctic being a notable exception ( ACIA, 2004 [NPR] ), these connections between climate change and sustainable development will only begin to emerge in the next decade or two (e.g., during the period embraced by the Millennium Development Goals) as a result of significant impacts that can be attributed to climate change. But industry, settlements and societies will be important foci of mitigation actions and adaptations involving land uses and capital investments with relatively long lifetimes. In the meantime, however, actions that address challenges of climate variability, including extreme events, contribute to environmental risk management as well as reducing possible impacts of climate change.

The most serious issues for sustainable development associated with climate-change impacts on the subjects of this chapter are: (a) threats to vulnerable regions and localities from gradual ecological changes leading to impact thresholds and extreme events that could disrupt the sustainability of societies and cultures, with particular attention to coastal areas in current storm tracks and to economies and societies in polar areas, dry land areas and low-lying islands, and (b) threats to fragile social and environmental systems, both from abrupt climate changes and thresholds associated with more gradual climate changes that would exceed the adaptive capacities of affected sectors, locations and societies. Examples include effects on resource supply for urban and industrial growth and waste management (e.g., flooding). As a very general rule, sensitivities of more-developed economies to the implications of climate change are less than in developing economies; but effects of crossing thresholds of sustainability could be especially large in developed economies whose structures are relatively rigid rather than adaptable. In the case of either developed or developing countries, social system inertia may delay adaptive responses when experienced climate change is gradual and moderate.

In general, however, climate change is an issue for sustainable development mainly as one of many sources of possible stress (e.g., O’Brien and Leichenko, 2000 [JoC, SRC] , 2003; Wilbanks, 2003b [JoC, SRC] ). Its significance lies primarily in its interactions with other stresses and stress-related thresholds, such as population growth and redistribution, social and political instability, and poverty and inequity. In the longer run, climate change is likely to affect sustainable development by reshaping the world map of comparative advantage which, in a globalising economy, will support sustainable development in some areas but endanger it in others, especially in areas with limited capacities to adapt. Underlying such questions, of course, are the magnitude and pace of climate change. Most human activities and societies can adapt given information, time and resources, which suggests that actions which moderate the rate of climate change are likely to reduce the negative effects of climate change on sustainable development ( Wilbanks, 2003b [JoC, SRC] ).

At the same time, development paths may increase or decrease vulnerabilities to climate-change impacts. For instance, development that intensifies land use in areas vulnerable to extreme weather events or sea-level rise adds to risks of climate-change impacts. Another example is development that moves an economy and society toward specialisation in a single economic activity if that activity is climate-sensitive; development that is more diversified is likely to be less risky. In many cases, actions that increase resilience of industry, settlements and society to climate change will also contribute to development with or without climate change by reducing vulnerabilities to climate variation and increasing capacities to cope with other stresses and uncertainties ( Wilbanks, 2003b [JoC, SRC] ).

Impacts of climate change on development paths also include impacts of climate-change response policies, which can affect a wide range of development-related choices, from energy sources and costs to industrial competitiveness to patterns of tourism. Areas and sectors most heavily dependent on fossil fuels are especially likely to be affected economically, often calling for adaptation strategies that may in some cases require assistance with capacity building, technological development and transition financing.

7.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities

Because research on vulnerabilities and adaptation potentials of human systems has lagged behind research on physical environmental systems, ecological impacts and mitigation, uncertainties dominate the subject matter of this chapter. Key issues include (a) uncertainties about climate-change impacts at a relatively fine-grained geographic and sectoral scale, both harmful and beneficial, which undermine efforts to assess potential benefits from investments in adaptation; (b) improved understanding of indirect second and third order impacts: i.e., the trickle down of primary effects, such as temperature or precipitation change, storm behaviour change and sea-level rise, through interrelationships among human systems; (c) relationships between specific effects in one location and the well-being of other locations, through linkages in inflows/outflows and inter-regional trade and migration flows; (d) uncertainties about potentials, costs and limits of adaptation in keeping stressful impacts within acceptable limits, especially in developing countries and regions (see Parson et al., 2003 [PoC, JoC, SRC] ); and (e) uncertainties about possible trends in societal, economic and technological change with or without climate change. A particular challenge is improving the capacity to provide more quantitative estimates of impacts and adaptation potentials under the sets of assumptions included in SRES and other climate-change scenarios and scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions stabilisation, especially for time horizons of interest to decision makers, such as 2020, 2050 and 2080 .

All of these issues are very high priorities for research in both developed and developing countries, with certain differences in emphasis related to the different development contexts. As a broad generalisation, the primary impact issue for developed countries is the possibility of abrupt climate change, which could cause changes too rapid and disruptive even for a relatively developed country to absorb, at least over a period of several decades. High priorities include reducing uncertainty about the potential for adaptation to cope with climate-change impacts in the absence of abrupt climate change, considering possible responses to threats from low-probability/high consequence contingencies, and considering interactions between climate change and other stresses. The primary impact issue for developing countries is the possibility that climate change, combined with other stresses affecting sustainable development, could jeopardise livelihoods and societies in many regions. High priorities include improving the understanding of multiple-stress contexts for sustainable development and improving the understanding of climate-sensitive thresholds for components of sustainable development paths.

Some of these uncertainties call for careful location- and sector-specific research, including better information about the geographic distribution of vulnerabilities of settlements and societies at a relatively localised scale, emphasising especially vulnerable areas, such as coastal areas in lower-income developing countries, and especially vulnerable sectors, such as tourism, and possible financial thresholds regarding the insurability of climate-change impact risks. Others call for attention to cross-sectoral and multi-locational relationships between climate change, adaptation and mitigation ( Chapter 18 ), including both complementarities and trade-offs in policy and investment strategies. Underlying all of these issues for industry, settlement and society are relationships between possible climate-change impact vulnerabilities and adaptation responses and broader processes of sustainable economic and social development, which suggest a need for a much greater emphasis on research that investigates such linkages. In some cases, because of the necessarily speculative nature of research about future contingencies, it is likely to be useful to consider past experiences with climate variability and analogues drawn from other experiences with managing risks and adapting to environmental changes and stresses (e.g., Abler, 2003 [NPR, MoS] ). In many others, an important step will be to establish mechanisms for monitoring interactions between emerging climate changes and other processes and stresses in order both to learn from the observations and to provide early alerts regarding potential problems or opportunities.

Underlying all of these research needs are often very serious limitations on available data to support valid analysis, especially data on nature-society linkages and data on relatively detailed-scale contexts in both developed and developing countries (e.g., Wilbanks et al., 2003 [SRC] ). If information about possible impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation potentials for industry, settlement and society is to be substantially improved, serious attention is needed towards establishing improved data sources on human-environmental relationships in both developing and developed countries, improving the integration of physical and earth science data from space-based and in situ observation systems with socioeconomic data, and improving the ability to associate data systems with high-priority questions.

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NOTE: In the Summary of Reviewer Comments,
Accepted includes only those responses that were unambiguously Accepted.
There are other categories of responses that we have not yet quantified
due to inconsistencies of usage.

Summary of Reviewer Comments - Second Order Draft

Reviewer	Total Comments	Accepted	IPCC Roles	Papers
Coelho, Dana	150	30	0	0
Republic of Korea	71	5	0	0
Llosa, Silvia	65	8	0	0
Dlugolecki, AF	55	2	1	5
Government of Netherlands	49	5	0	0
Palutikof, JP	47	11	2	7
Lee, K	46	10	0	2
Government of USA	34	7	0	0
Government of Argentina	20	0	0	0
Scott, DJ	17	1	1	23
Government of Australia	16	1	0	0
Kram, T	15	1	0	5
Government of Sweden	15	1	0	0
Government of Canada	14	0	0	0
Crabbe, P	14	0	0	1
Government of France	11	3	0	0
Gabor, Vereczi	10	0	0	0
Matzarakis, A	10	1	0	2
Blazejczyk, Krzysztof	9	0	0	0
Heck, Pamela	7	0	0	0
Sheppard, Stephen	6	1	0	0
Government of Spain	5	0	0	0
Emmanuel, R	5	1	0	1
Government of India	4	0	0	2
Bero, James	4	0	0	0
Kirshen, PH	4	1	0	9
Levermore, GJ	2	1	0	2
Smith, SJ	2	0	0	16
Government of Austria	2	0	0	0
Government of Finland	2	0	0	0
Union, European	2	0	0	0
Bernstein, Lenny	2	0	0	0
Lapin, Milan	2	0	0	0
Government of UK	1	0	0	0
Government of Norway	1	0	0	0
Totals	719	90	4	75

Overview of Reviewer Comments - Second Order Draft

Reviewer Type	Total Comments	Accepted	% Accepted
Govt	170	17	10%
IPCC	221	29	13%
Indep	328	44	13%
Total	719	90	12%

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