With the exception of Chapter and Section headings, all coloured text has been inserted by AccessIPCC. The non-coloured text is the IPCC original.

A number of emails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia were published on the Internet in November 2009. This has provided a window into the world of climate science.

We have identified a number of key individuals involved in the emails whom we have designated as Persons of Concern [PoC]; a Journal in which a PoC has published has been designated as a Journal of Concern [JoC].

This is not to suggest that we believe such papers are necessarily flawed, but rather that, as Joseph Alcamo noted at Bali in October 2009, "as policymakers and the public begin to grasp the multi-billion dollar price tag for mitigating and adapting to climate change, we should expect a sharper questioning of the science behind climate policy".

References occur in a list at the end of each chapter. Citations are within the normal text of sections and paragraphs.

Definition of Tags Used

Tag	Explanation	Where Used	References	Citations
PoC	Person of Concern Key individual involved in CRU emails as defined in this spreadsheet. NOTE: we anticipate that this definition will be expanded as more data is coded.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	4	7
JoC	Journal of Concern A Journal which has published articles by one or more PoCs (Person of Concern)	References, Citations	83	120
MoS	Model or Simulation Reference appears to be a model or simulation, not observation or experiment	References, Citations	82	104
NPR	Non Peer Reviewed Reference has no Journal or no Volume or no Pages or it has Editors.	References, Citations	113	116
SRC	Self Reference Concern Author of a chapter containing references to own work.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	59	93
ARC	Paper authored or co-authored by person who is also in list of Authors of another chapter.	References, Citations	59	76
2007	Paper dated 2007, when IPCC policy stated cutoff was December 2005 with mid-February 2006 for exceptions.	References, Citations	16	22
Ambiguous	The short inline citation matched with more than one reference; however, AccessIPCC will link to the first reference found.	Citations	-	5
NotFound	The short inline citation was not matched with any reference. Believed to be caused by typing errors.	Citations	-	1
Clean	The reference was probably peer reviewed. The reference was dated before the cutoff (2005-2006). Its authors were not members of the Team. It was not published in a Journal of Concern. Its authors were not AR4 Authors.	References, Citations	94	120

Chapter Table of Contents

Title	Clean	Tagged	NotFound	Ambiguous
Chapter 3: Fresh Water Resources and their Management	-	-	-	-
3.1 Introduction	-	8	-	-
3.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability	25	41	1	-
3.3 Assumptions about future trends	-	-	-	-
3.3.1 Climatic drivers	-	40	-	-
3.3.2 Non-climatic drivers	3	11	-	-
3.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities	-	-	-	-
3.4.1 Surface waters	20	69	-	-
3.4.2 Groundwater	5	7	-	-
3.4.3 Floods and droughts	3	23	-	1
3.4.4 Water quality	25	23	-	1
3.4.5 Erosion and sediment transport	3	10	-	1
3.5 Costs and other socio-economic aspects	2	5	-	-
3.5.1 How will climate change affect the balance of water demand and water availability?	12	55	-	2
3.5.2 How will climate change affect flood damages?	1	9	-	-
3.6 Adaptation: practices, options and constraints	-	-	-	-
3.6.1 The context for adaptation	3	6	-	-
3.6.2 Adaptation options in principle	7	12	-	-
3.6.3 Adaptation options in practice	2	10	-	-
3.6.4 Limits to adaptation and adaptive capacity	-	1	-	-
3.6.5 Uncertainty and risk: decision-making under uncertainty	6	11	-	-
3.7 Conclusions: implications for sustainable development	3	9	-	-
3.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities	-	-	-	-
Number of citations of various credibilities	120	350	1	5
Percentages of citations of various credibilities	25.2%	73.5%	0.2%	1.1%

Executive summary

The impacts of climate change on freshwater systems and their management are mainly due to the observed and projected increases in temperature, sea level and precipitation variability (very high confidence).

More than one-sixth of the world’s population live in glacier- or snowmelt-fed river basins and will be affected by the seasonal shift in streamflow, an increase in the ratio of winter to annual flows, and possibly the reduction in low flows caused by decreased glacier extent or snow water storage (high confidence) [ 3.4.1 , 3.4.3 ]. Sea-level rise will extend areas of salinisation of groundwater and estuaries, resulting in a decrease in freshwater availability for humans and ecosystems in coastal areas (very high confidence) [ 3.2 , 3.4.2 ]. Increased precipitation intensity and variability is projected to increase the risks of flooding and drought in many areas (high confidence) [ 3.3.1 ].

Semi-arid and arid areas are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change on freshwater (high confidence).

Many of these areas (e.g., Mediterranean basin, western USA, southern Africa, and north-eastern Brazil) will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change (very high confidence) [ 3.4 , 3.7 ]. Efforts to offset declining surface water availability due to increasing precipitation variability will be hampered by the fact that groundwater recharge will decrease considerably in some already water-stressed regions (high confidence) [ 3.2 , 3.4.2 ], where vulnerability is often exacerbated by the rapid increase in population and water demand (very high confidence) [ 3.5.1 ].

Higher water temperatures, increased precipitation intensity, and longer periods of low flows exacerbate many forms of water pollution, with impacts on ecosystems, human health, water system reliability and operating costs (high confidence).

These pollutants include sediments, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, pathogens, pesticides, salt, and thermal pollution [ 3.2 , 3.4.4 , 3.4.5 ].

Climate change affects the function and operation of existing water infrastructure as well as water management practices (very high confidence).

Adverse effects of climate on freshwater systems aggravate the impacts of other stresses, such as population growth, changing economic activity, land-use change, and urbanisation (very high confidence) [ 3.3.2 , 3.5 ]. Globally, water demand will grow in the coming decades, primarily due to population growth and increased affluence; regionally, large changes in irrigation water demand as a result of climate change are likely (high confidence) [ 3.5.1 ]. Current water management practices are very likely to be inadequate to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on water supply reliability, flood risk, health, energy, and aquatic ecosystems (very high confidence) [ 3.4 , 3.5 ]. Improved incorporation of current climate variability into water-related management would make adaptation to future climate change easier (very high confidence) [ 3.6 ].

Adaptation procedures and risk management practices for the water sector are being developed in some countries and regions (e.g., Caribbean, Canada, Australia, Netherlands, UK, USA, Germany) that have recognised projected hydrological changes with related uncertainties (very high confidence).

Since the IPCC Third Assessment, uncertainties have been evaluated, their interpretation has improved, and new methods (e.g., ensemble-based approaches) are being developed for their characterisation (very high confidence) [ 3.4 , 3.5 ]. Nevertheless, quantitative projections of changes in precipitation, river flows, and water levels at the river-basin scale remain uncertain (very high confidence) [ 3.3.1 , 3.4 ].

The negative impacts of climate change on freshwater systems outweigh its benefits (high confidence).

All IPCC regions (see Chapters 3 – 16 ) show an overall net negative impact of climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems (high confidence). Areas in which runoff is projected to decline are likely to face a reduction in the value of the services provided by water resources (very high confidence) [ 3.4 , 3.5 ]. The beneficial impacts of increased annual runoff in other areas will be tempered by the negative effects of increased precipitation variability and seasonal runoff shifts on water supply, water quality, and flood risks (high confidence) [ 3.4 , 3.5 ].

3.1 Introduction

Water is indispensable for all forms of life. It is needed in almost all human activities. Access to safe freshwater is now regarded as a universal human right (United Nations Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, 2003 [NPR] ), and the Millennium Development Goals include the extended access to safe drinking water and sanitation ( UNDP, 2006 [NPR] ). Sustainable management of freshwater resources has gained importance at regional (e.g., European Union, 2000 [NPR] ) and global scales (United Nations, 2002, 2006; World Water Council, 2006 ), and ‘Integrated Water Resources Management’ has become the corresponding scientific paradigm.

Figure 3.1 shows schematically how human activities affect freshwater resources (both quantity and quality) and their management. Anthropogenic climate change is only one of many pressures on freshwater systems. Climate and freshwater systems are interconnected in complex ways. Any change in one of these systems induces a change in the other. For example, the draining of large wetlands may cause changes in moisture recycling and a decrease of precipitation in particular months, when local boundary conditions dominate over the large-scale circulation ( Kanae et al., 2001 [JoC, SRC] ). Conversely, climate change affects freshwater quantity and quality with respect to both mean states and variability (e.g., water availability as well as floods and droughts). Water use is impacted by climate change, and also, more importantly, by changes in population, lifestyle, economy, and technology; in particular by food demand, which drives irrigated agriculture, globally the largest water-use sector. Significant changes in water use or the hydrological cycle (affecting water supply and floods) require adaptation in the management of water resources.

In the Working Group II Third Assessment Report (TAR; IPCC, 2001 [NPR] ), the state of knowledge of climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources was presented in the light of literature up to the year 2000 ( Arnell et al., 2001 [NPR, SRC] ). These findings are summarised as follows.

• There are apparent trends in streamflow volume, both increases and decreases, in many regions.
• The effect of climate change on streamflow and groundwater recharge varies regionally and between scenarios, largely following projected changes in precipitation.
• Peak streamflow is likely to move from spring to winter in many areas due to early snowmelt, with lower flows in summer and autumn.
• Glacier retreat is likely to continue, and many small glaciers may disappear.
• Generally, water quality is likely to be degraded by higher water temperatures.
• Flood magnitude and frequency are likely to increase in most regions, and volumes of low flows are likely to decrease in many regions.
• Globally, demand for water is increasing as a result of population growth and economic development, but is falling in some countries, due to greater water-use efficiency.
• The impact of climate change on water resources also depends on system characteristics, changing pressures on the system, how the management of the system evolves, and what adaptations to climate change are implemented.
• Unmanaged systems are likely to be most vulnerable to climate change.
• Climate change challenges existing water resource management practices by causing trends not previously experienced and adding new uncertainty.
• Adaptive capacity is distributed very unevenly across the world.

These findings have been confirmed by the current assessment. Some of them are further developed, and new findings have been added. This chapter gives an overview of the future impacts of climate change on freshwater resources and their management, mainly based on research published after the Third Assessment Report. Socio-economic aspects, adaptation issues, implications for sustainable development, as well as uncertainties and research priorities, are also covered. The focus is on terrestrial water in liquid form, due to its importance for freshwater management. Various aspects of climate change impacts on water resources and related vulnerabilities are presented ( Section 3.4 ) as well as the impacts on water-use sectors ( Section 3.5 ). Please refer to Chapter 1 for further information on observed trends, to Chapter 15 (Sections 15.3 and 15.4.1 ) for freshwater in cold regions and to Chapter 10 of the Working Group I Fourth Assessment Report ( Meehl et al., 2007 [NPR, ARC, 2007] ) - Section 10.3.3 for the cryosphere, and Section 10.3.2.3 for impacts on precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. While the impacts of increased water temperatures on aquatic ecosystems are discussed in this volume in Chapter 4 ( Section 4.4.8 ), findings with respect to the effect of changed flow conditions on aquatic ecosystems are presented here in Section 3.5 . The health effects of changes in water quality and quantity are covered in Chapter 8 , while regional vulnerabilities related to freshwater are discussed in Chapters 9 – 16 .

3.2 Current sensitivity/vulnerability

With higher temperatures, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and evaporation into the atmosphere increase, and this favours increased climate variability, with more intense precipitation and more droughts ( Trenberth et al., 2003 [PoC, JoC] ). The hydrological cycle accelerates ( (Huntington, 2006 ) ). While temperatures are expected to increase everywhere over land and during all seasons of the year, although by different increments, precipitation is expected to increase globally and in many river basins, but to decrease in many others. In addition, as shown in the Working Group I Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 10 , Section 10.3.2.3 ( Meehl et al., 2007 [NPR, ARC, 2007] ), precipitation may increase in one season and decrease in another. These climatic changes lead to changes in all components of the global freshwater system.

Climate-related trends of some components during the last decades have already been observed (see Table 3.1 ). For a number of components, for example groundwater, the lack of data makes it impossible to determine whether their state has changed in the recent past due to climate change. During recent decades, non-climatic drivers ( Figure 3.1 ) have exerted strong pressure on freshwater systems. This has resulted in water pollution, damming of rivers, wetland drainage, reduction in streamflow, and lowering of the groundwater table (mainly due to irrigation). In comparison, climate-related changes have been small, although this is likely to be different in the future as the climate change signal becomes more evident.

Current vulnerabilities to climate are strongly correlated with climate variability, in particular precipitation variability. These vulnerabilities are largest in semi-arid and arid low-income countries, where precipitation and streamflow are concentrated over a few months, and where year-to-year variations are high ( (Lenton, 2004 ) ). In such regions a lack of deep groundwater wells or reservoirs (i.e., storage) leads to a high level of vulnerability to climate variability, and to the climate changes that are likely to further increase climate variability in future. In addition, river basins that are stressed due to non-climatic drivers are likely to be vulnerable to climate change. However, vulnerability to climate change exists everywhere, as water infrastructure (e.g., dikes and pipelines) has been designed for stationary climatic conditions, and water resources management has only just started to take into account the uncertainties related to climate change (see Section 3.6 ). In the following paragraphs, the current sensitivities of components of the global freshwater system are discussed, and example regions, whose vulnerabilities are likely to be exacerbated by climate change, are highlighted ( Figure 3.2 ).

Surface waters and runoff generation

Changes in river flows as well as lake and wetland levels due to climate change depend on changes in the volume, timing and intensity of precipitation ( Chiew, 2007 [MoS, 2007] ), snowmelt and whether precipitation falls as snow or rain. Changes in temperature, radiation, atmospheric humidity, and wind speed affect potential evapotranspiration, and this can offset small increases in precipitation and exaggerate further the effect of decreased precipitation on surface waters. In addition, increased atmospheric CO₂ concentration directly alters plant physiology, thus affecting evapotranspiration. Many experimental (e.g., ( Triggs et al., 2004 ) ) and global modelling studies (e.g., ( Leipprand and Gerten, 2006; ) Betts et al., 2007 [NPR, SRC, 2007] ) show reduced evapotranspiration, with only part of this reduction being offset by increased plant growth due to increased CO₂ concentrations. Gedney et al. 2006 [JoC, SRC] ) attributed an observed 3% rise in global river discharges over the 20th century to CO₂-induced reductions in plant evapotranspiration (by 5%) which were offset by climate change (which by itself would have decreased discharges by 2%). However, this attribution is highly uncertain, among other reasons due to the high uncertainty of observed precipitation time series.

Different catchments respond differently to the same change in climate drivers, depending largely on catchment physiogeographical and hydrogeological characteristics and the amount of lake or groundwater storage in the catchment.

A number of lakes worldwide have decreased in size during the last decades, mainly due to human water use. For some, declining precipitation was also a significant cause; e.g., in the case of Lake Chad, where both decreased precipitation and increased human water use account for the observed decrease in lake area since the 1960 s ( (Coe and Foley, 2001 ) ). For the many lakes, rivers and wetlands that have shrunk mainly due to human water use and drainage, with negative impacts on ecosystems, climate change is likely to exacerbate the situation if it results in reduced net water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration).

Groundwater

Groundwater systems generally respond more slowly to climate change than surface water systems. Groundwater levels correlate more strongly with precipitation than with temperature, but temperature becomes more important for shallow aquifers and in warm periods.

Floods and droughts

Disaster losses, mostly weather- and water-related, have grown much more rapidly than population or economic growth, suggesting a negative impact of climate change ( Mills, 2005 [JoC, ARC] ). However, there is no clear evidence for a climate-related trend in floods during the last decades ( Table 3.1 Kundzewicz et al., 2005 [SRC] ; Schiermeier, 2006 [JoC] ). However, the observed increase in precipitation intensity ( Table 3.1 ) and other observed climate changes, e.g., an increase in westerly weather patterns during winter over Europe, leading to very rainy low-pressure systems that often trigger floods (Kron and Bertz, 2007 ), indicate that climate might already have had an impact on floods. Globally, the number of great inland flood catastrophes during the last 10 years (between 1996 and 2005 ) is twice as large, per decade, as between 1950 and 1980, while economic losses have increased by a factor of five (Kron and Bertz, 2007 ). The dominant drivers of the upward trend in flood damage are socio-economic factors, such as increased population and wealth in vulnerable areas, and land-use change. Floods have been the most reported natural disaster events in Africa, Asia and Europe, and have affected more people across the globe (140 million/yr on average) than all other natural disasters ( WDR, 2003 [NPR] , 2004 ). In Bangladesh, three extreme floods have occurred in the last two decades, and in 1998 about 70% of the country’s area was inundated ( (Mirza, 2003; ) Clarke and King, 2004 [NPR] ). In some river basins, e.g., the Elbe river basin in Germany, increasing flood risk drives the strengthening of flood protection systems by structural means, with detrimental effects on riparian and aquatic ecosystems ( Wechsung et al., 2005 [NPR, SRC] ).

Droughts affect rain-fed agricultural production as well as water supply for domestic, industrial, and agricultural purposes. Some semi-arid and sub-humid regions of the globe, e.g., Australia (see Chapter 11 , Section 11.2.1 ), western USA and southern Canada (see Chapter 14 , Section 14.2.1 ), and the Sahel ( (Nicholson, 2005 ) ), have suffered from more intense and multi-annual droughts, highlighting the vulnerability of these regions to the increased drought occurrence that is expected in the future due to climate change.

Water quality

In lakes and reservoirs, climate change effects are mainly due to water temperature variations, which result directly from climate change or indirectly through an increase in thermal pollution as a result of higher demands for cooling water in the energy sector. This affects oxygen regimes, redox potentials, ^[1] lake stratification, mixing rates, and biota development, as they all depend on temperature (see Chapter 4 ). Increasing water temperature affects the self-purification capacity of rivers by reducing the amount of oxygen that can be dissolved and used for biodegradation. A trend has been detected in water temperature in the Fraser River in British Columbia, Canada, for longer river sections reaching a temperature over 20°C, which is considered the threshold beyond which salmon habitats are degraded ( Morrison et al., 2002 [MoS] ). Furthermore, increases in intense rainfall result in more nutrients, pathogens, and toxins being washed into water bodies. ( Chang et al. 2001 ) ) reported increased nitrogen loads from rivers of up to 50% in the Chesapeake and Delaware Bay regions due to enhanced precipitation.

Numerous diseases linked to climate variations can be transmitted via water, either by drinking it or by consuming crops irrigated with polluted water ( Chapter 8 , Section 8.2.5 ). The presence of pathogens in water supplies has been related to extreme rainfall events ( (Yarze and Chase, 2000; ) Curriero et al., 2001 [ARC] ;( Fayer et al., 2002; ) ( Cox et al., 2003; ) ( Hunter, 2003 ) ). In aquifers, a possible relation between virus content and extreme rainfall has been identified ( (Hunter, 2003 ) ). In the USA, 20 to 40% of water-borne disease outbreaks can be related to extreme precipitation ( Rose et al., 2000 [ARC] ). Effects of dry periods on water quality have not been adequately studied ( Takahashi et al., 2001 [ARC] ), although lower water availability clearly reduces dilution.

At the global scale, health problems due to arsenic and fluoride in groundwater are more important than those due to other chemicals (United Nations, 2006 ). Affected regions include India, Bangladesh, China, North Africa, Mexico, and Argentina, with more than 100 million people suffering from arsenic poisoning and fluorosis (a disease of the teeth or bones caused by excessive consumption of fluoride) (United Nations, 2003; Clarke and King, 2004 [NPR] ; see also Chapter 13 , Section 13.2.3 ).

One-quarter of the global population lives in coastal regions; these are water-scarce (less than 10% of the global renewable water supply) ( Small and Nicholls, 2003 [ARC] ; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment,) and are undergoing rapid population growth. Saline intrusion due to excessive water withdrawals from aquifers is expected to be exacerbated by the effect of sea-level rise, leading to even higher salinisation and reduction of freshwater availability ( Klein and Nicholls, 1999 [ARC] ;( Sherif and Singh, 1999; ) Essink, 2001 [JoC] ;( Peirson et al., 2001; ) Beach, 2002 [NPR] ;( Beuhler, 2003 ) ). Salinisation affects estuaries and rivers ( Knighton et al., 1992 [ARC] ; Mulrennan and Woodroffe, 1998 [ARC] ; Burkett et al., 2002 [NPR, ARC] ; see also Chapter 13 ). Groundwater salinisation caused by a reduction in groundwater recharge is also observed in inland aquifers, e.g., in Manitoba, Canada ( (Chen et al., 2004 ) ).

Water quality problems and their effects are different in type and magnitude in developed and developing countries, particularly those stemming from microbial and pathogen content ( (Lipp et al., 2001; ) Jiménez, 2003 [NPR, SRC] ). In developed countries, flood-related water-borne diseases are usually contained by well-maintained water and sanitation services ( McMichael et al., 2003 [NPR, ARC] ) but this does not apply in developing countries (Wisner and Adams, 2002 [NotFound] ). Regretfully, with the exception of cholera and salmonella, studies of the relationship between climate change and micro-organism content in water and wastewater do not focus on pathogens of interest in developing countries, such as specific protozoa or parasitic worms ( (Yarze and Chase, 2000; ) Rose et al., 2000 [ARC] ;( Fayer et al., 2002; ) ( Cox et al., 2003; ) Scott et al., 2004 [NPR] ). One-third of urban water supplies in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and more than half in Asia, are operating intermittently during periods of drought (WHO/UNICEF, 2000 ). This adversely affects water quality in the supply system.

Erosion and sediment transport

Rainfall amounts and intensities are the most important factors controlling climate change impacts on water erosion ( Nearing et al., 2005 [MoS, SRC] ), and they affect many geomorphologic processes, including slope stability, channel change, and sediment transport ( (Rumsby and Macklin, 1994; ) Rosso et al., 2006 [MoS] ). There is no evidence for a climate-related trend in erosion and sediment transport in the past, as data are poor and climate is not the only driver of erosion and sediment transport. Examples of vulnerable areas can be found in north-eastern Brazil, where the sedimentation of reservoirs is significantly decreasing water storage and thus water supply ( (De Araujo et al., 2006 ) ); increased erosion due to increased precipitation intensities would exacerbate this problem. Human settlements on steep hill slopes, in particular informal settlements in metropolitan areas of developing countries (United Nations, 2006 ), are vulnerable to increased water erosion and landslides.

Water use, availability and stress

Human water use is dominated by irrigation, which accounts for almost 70% of global water withdrawals and for more than 90% of global consumptive water use, i.e., the water volume that is not available for reuse downstream ( Shiklomanov and Rodda, 2003 [NPR, SRC] ). In most countries of the world, except in a few industrialised nations, water use has increased over the last decades due to demographic and economic growth, changes in lifestyle, and expanded water supply systems. Water use, in particular irrigation water use, generally increases with temperature and decreases with precipitation. There is no evidence for a climate-related trend in water use in the past. This is due to the fact that water use is mainly driven by non-climatic factors and to the poor quality of water-use data in general and time series in particular.

Water availability from surface sources or shallow groundwater wells depends on the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow, and safe water supply is determined by seasonal low flows. In snow-dominated basins, higher temperatures lead to reduced streamflow and thus decreased water supply in summer ( Barnett et al., 2005 [JoC] ), for example in South American river basins along the Andes, where glaciers are shrinking ( Coudrain et al., 2005 [SRC] ). In semi-arid areas, climate change may extend the dry season of no or very low flows, which particularly affects water users unable to rely on reservoirs or deep groundwater wells ( (Giertz et al., 2006 ) )

Currently, human beings and natural ecosystems in many river basins suffer from a lack of water. In global-scale assessments, basins with water stress are defined either as having a per capita water availability below 1,000 m³/yr (based on long-term average runoff) or as having a ratio of withdrawals to long-term average annual runoff above 0.4. These basins are located in Africa, the Mediterranean region, the Near East, South Asia, Northern China, Australia, the USA, Mexico, north-eastern Brazil, and the western coast of South America ( Figure 3.2 ). Estimates of the population living in such severely stressed basins range from 1.4 billion to 2.1 billion ( Vörösmarty et al., 2000 [JoC] ; Alcamo et al., 2003a [MoS, SRC] , b; Oki et al., 2003a [NPR, SRC] ; Arnell, 2004b [JoC, SRC] ). In water-scarce areas, people and ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to decreasing and more variable precipitation due to climate change. For example, in the Huanghe River basin in China ( Yang et al., 2004 [ARC] ), the combination of increasing irrigation water consumption facilitated by reservoirs, and decreasing precipitation associated with global El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the past half century, has resulted in water scarcity ( Wang et al., 2006 [ARC] ). The irrigation-dominated Murray-Darling Basin in Australia suffers from decreased water inflows to wetlands and high salinity due to irrigation water use, which affects aquatic ecosystems ( (Goss, 2003; ) see also Chapter 11 , Section 11.7 ).

Current adaptation

At the Fourth World Water Forum held in Mexico City in 2006, many of the involved groups requested the inclusion of climate change in Integrated Water Resources Management (World Water Council, 2006 ). In some countries (e.g., Caribbean, Canada, Australia, Netherlands, UK, USA and Germany), adaptation procedures and risk management practices for the water sector have already been developed that take into account climate change impacts on freshwater systems (compare with Section 3.6 ).

3.3 Assumptions about future trends

In Chapter 2 , scenarios of the main drivers of climate change and their impacts are presented. This section describes how the driving forces of freshwater systems are assumed to develop in the future, with a focus on the dominant drivers during the 21st century. Climate-related and non-climatic drivers are distinguished. Assumptions about future trends in non-climatic drivers are necessary in order to assess the vulnerability of freshwater systems to climate change, and to compare the relative importance of climate change impacts and impacts due to changes in non-climatic drivers.

3.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities

3.5 Costs and other socio-economic aspects

Impacts of climate change will entail social and economic costs and benefits, which are difficult to determine. These include the costs of damages and the costs of adaptation (to reduce or avoid damages), as well as benefits that could result from improved water availability in some areas. In addition to uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change on freshwater systems, there are other compounding factors, including demographic, societal, and economic developments, that should be considered when evaluating the costs of climate change. Costs and benefits of climate change may take several forms, including increases or decreases in monetary costs, and human and ecosystem impacts, e.g., displacement of households due to flooding, and loss of aquatic species. So far, very few of these costs have been estimated in monetary terms. Efforts to quantify the economic impacts of climate-related changes in water resources are hampered by a lack of data and by the fact that the estimates are highly sensitive to different estimation methods and to different assumptions regarding how changes in water availability will be allocated across various types of water uses, e.g., between agricultural, urban, or in-stream uses ( Changnon, 2005 [JoC, MoS] ;( Schlenker et al., 2005; ) Young, 2005 [NPR, MoS] ).

With respect to water supply, it is very likely that the costs of climate change will outweigh the benefits. One reason is that precipitation variability is very likely to increase. The impacts of floods and droughts could be tempered by appropriate infrastructure investments, and by changes in water and land-use management, but all of these responses entail costs (US Global Change Research Program, 2000 ). Another reason is that water infrastructure, use patterns, and institutions have developed in the context of current conditions ( Conway, 2005 [JoC] ). Any substantial change in the frequency of floods and droughts or in the quantity and quality or seasonal timing of water availability will require adjustments that may be costly not only in monetary terms, but also in terms of societal impacts, including the need to manage potential conflicts among different interest groups ( Miller et al., 1997 [JoC, SRC] ).

Hydrological changes may have impacts that are positive in some aspects and negative in others. For example, increased annual runoff may produce benefits for a variety of instream and out-of-stream water users by increasing renewable water resources, but may simultaneously generate harm by increasing flood risk. In recent decades, a trend to wetter conditions in parts of southern South America has increased the area inundated by floods, but has also improved crop yields in the Pampa region of Argentina, and has provided new commercial fishing opportunities ( Magrin et al., 2005 [JoC, ARC] ; also see Chapter 13 ). Increased runoff could also damage areas with a shallow watertable. In such areas, a watertable rise will disturb agricultural use and damage buildings in urban areas. For Russia, for example, the current annual damage caused by shallow watertables is estimated to be US$5-6 billion ( (Kharkina, 2004 ) ) and is likely to increase in the future. In addition, an increase in annual runoff may not lead to a beneficial increase in readily available water resources if the additional runoff is concentrated during the high-flow season.

3.6 Adaptation: practices, options and constraints

3.7 Conclusions: implications for sustainable development

Most of the seven Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are related directly or indirectly to water management and climate change, although climate change is not directly addressed in the MDGs. Some major concerns are presented in Table 3.6 ( UNDP, 2006 [NPR] ).

In many regions of the globe, climate change impacts on freshwater resources may affect sustainable development and put at risk, for example, the reduction of poverty and child mortality. Even with optimal water management, it is very likely that negative impacts on sustainable development cannot be avoided. Figure 3.8 shows some key cases around the world where freshwater-related climate change impacts are a threat to the sustainable development of the affected regions.

‘Sustainable’ water resources management is generally sought to be achieved by Integrated Water Resources Management. However, the precise interpretation of this term varies considerably. All definitions broadly include the concept of maintaining and enhancing the environment, and in particular the water environment, taking into account competing users, instream ecosystems, and wetlands. Also, wider environmental implications of water management policies, such as implications for land management, or the implications of land management policies for the water environment, are considered. Water and land governance are important components of managing water in order to achieve sustainable water resources for a range of political, socio-economic and administrative systems (GWP, 2002; Eakin and Lemos, 2006 [JoC, ARC] ).

Energy, equity, health, and water governance are key issues when linking climate change and sustainable development. However, few studies on sustainability have explicitly incorporated the issue of climate change ( (Kashyap, 2004 ) ). Some studies have taken into account the carbon footprint attributable to the water sector. For example, desalination can be regarded as a sustainable water management measure if solar energy is used. Many water management actions and adaptations, particularly those involving pumping or treating water, are very energy-intensive. Their implementation would affect energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, and energy policy could affect their implementation ( Mata and Budhooram, 2007 [NPR, 2007] ). Examples of potential inequities occur where people benefit differently from an adaptation option (such as publicly funded flood protection) or where people are displaced or otherwise adversely impacted in order to implement an adaptation option (e.g., building a new reservoir).

Mitigation measures that reduce greenhouse gas emissions lessen the impacts of climate change on water resources. The number of people exposed to floods or water shortage and potentially affected is scenario-dependent. For example, stabilisation at 550 ppm (resulting in a temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels of nearly 2°C) only reduces the number of people adversely affected by climate change by 30-50% ( Arnell, 2006 [NPR, SRC] ).

3.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities

There are major uncertainties in quantitative projections of changes in hydrological characteristics for a drainage basin. Precipitation, a principal input signal to water systems, is not reliably simulated in present climate models. However, it is well established that precipitation variability increases due to climate change, and projections of future temperatures, which affect snowmelt, are more consistent, such that useful conclusions are possible for snow-dominated basins.

Uncertainty has two implications. First, adaptation procedures need to be developed which do not rely on precise projections of changes in river discharge, groundwater, etc. Second, based on the studies completed so far, it is difficult to assess in a reliable way the water-related consequences of climate policies and emission pathways. Research on methods of adaptation in the face of these uncertainties is needed. Whereas it is difficult to make concrete projections, it is known that hydrological characteristics will change in the future. Water managers in some countries are already considering explicitly how to incorporate the potential effects of climate change into policies and specific designs.

Research into the water–climate interface is required:

• to improve understanding and estimation, in quantitative terms, of climate change impacts on freshwater resources and their management,
• to fulfil the pragmatic information needs of water managers who are responsible for adaptation.

Among the research issues related to the climate–water interface, developments are needed in the following.

• It is necessary to improve the understanding of sources of uncertainty in order to improve the credibility of projections.
• There is a scale mismatch between the large-scale climatic models and the catchment scale, which needs further resolution. Water is managed at the catchment scale and adaptation is local, while global climate models work on large spatial grids. Increasing the resolution of adequately validated regional climate models and statistical downscaling can produce information of more relevance to water management.
• Impacts of changes in climate variability need to be integrated into impact modelling efforts.
• Improvements in coupling climate models with the land-use change, including vegetation change and anthropogenic activity such as irrigation, are necessary.
• Climate change impacts on water quality are poorly understood. There is a strong need for enhancing research in this area, with particular reference to the impacts of extreme events, and covering the needs of both developed and developing countries.
• Relatively few results are available on the economic aspects of climate change impacts and adaptation options related to water resources, which are of great practical importance.
• Research into human-dimension indicators of climate change impacts on freshwater is in its infancy and vigorous expansion is necessary.
• Impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems (not only temperatures, but also altered flow regimes, water levels, and ice cover) are not adequately understood.
• Detection and attribution of observed changes in freshwater resources, with particular reference to characteristics of extremes, is a challenging research priority, and methods for attribution of causes of changes in water systems need refinement.
• There are challenges and opportunities posed by the advent of probabilistic climate change scenarios for water resources management.
• Despite its significance, groundwater has received little attention from climate change impact assessments, compared to surface water resources.
• Water resources management clearly impacts on many other policy areas (e.g., energy projections, nature conservation). Hence there is an opportunity to align adaptation measures across different sectors (Holman et al., 2005a, b). There is also a need to identify what additional tools are required to facilitate the appraisal of adaptation options across multiple water-dependent sectors.

Progress in research depends on improvements in data availability, calling for enhancement of monitoring endeavours worldwide, addressing the challenges posed by projected climate change to freshwater resources, and reversing the tendency of shrinking observation networks. Broadening access to available observation data is a prerequisite to improving understanding of the ongoing changes. Relatively short hydrometric records can underplay the full extent of natural variability and confound detection studies, while long-term river flow reconstruction can place recent trends and extremes in a broader context. Data on water use, water quality, and sediment transport are even less readily available.

References

Abufayed, A.A., M.K.A. Elghuel and M. Rashed, 2003: Desalination: available supplemental source of water for the arid states of North Africa. Desalination, 152, 75-81. Clean

Al-Sefry, S.A., Z.Z. ?en, S.A. Al-Ghamdi, W.A. Al-Ashi and W.A. Al-Bardi, 2004: Strategic ground water storage of Wadi Fatimah, Makkah region. Technical Report SGS-TR-2003-2. Saudi Geological Survey, Jeddah, 168 pp. [NPR]

Alcamo, J. and T. Henrichs, 2002: Critical regions: a model-based estimation of world water resources sensitive to global changes. Aquat. Sci., 64, 1-11. [MoS, ARC]

Alcamo, J., T. Henrichs and T. Rösch, 2000: World water in 2025: global modeling and scenario analysis for the 21st century. Report A0002. Centre for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, 49 pp. [NPR, MoS, ARC]

Alcamo, J., P. Döll, T. Henrichs, F. Kaspar, B. Lehner, T. Rösch and S. Siebert, 2003a: Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability. Hydrol. Sci. J., 48, 317-338. [MoS, SRC]

Alcamo, J., P. Döll, T. Henrichs, F. Kaspar, B. Lehner, T. Rösch and S. Siebert, 2003b: Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future “business-as-usual” conditions. Hydrol. Sci. J., 48, 339-348. [MoS, SRC]

Alcamo, J., M. Flörke and M. Märker, 2007: Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic change. Hydrol. Sci. J., 52, 247-275. [MoS, ARC, 2007]

Allan, J.A., 1998: Virtual water: an essential element in stabilizing the political economies of the Middle East. Transformation of Middle Eastern Natural Environments, J. Albert, M. Bernhardsson and R. Kenna, Eds., Forestry and Environmental Studies Bulletin No. 103, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 141-149. [NPR]

Allen, D.M., D.C. Mackie and M. Wei, 2003: Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer, southern British Columbia, Canada. Hydrogeol. J., 12, 270-290. Clean

Allen, M.R. and W.J. Ingram, 2002: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature, 419, 224-232. [JoC, MoS]

Alley, W.M., 2001: Ground water and climate. Ground Water, 39, 161. Clean

Andreasson, J., S. Bergstörm, B. Carlsson, L.P. Graham and G. Lindström, 2004: Hydrological change: climate change impact simulations for Sweden. Ambio, 33, 228-234. [MoS]

Arnell, N.W., 2003a: Effects of IPCC SRES emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sc., 7, 619-641. [SRC]

Arnell, N.W., 2003b: Relative effects of multi-decadal climatic variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: future streamflows in Britain. J. Hydrol., 270, 195-213. [MoS, SRC]

Arnell, N.W., 2004a: Climate-change impacts on river flows in Britain: the UKCIP02 scenarios. Water Environ. J., 18, 112-117. [SRC]

Arnell, N.W., 2004b: Climate change and global water resources: SRES scenarios and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environ. Change, 14, 31-52. [JoC, SRC]

Arnell, N.W., 2005: Implications of climate change for freshwater inflows to the Arctic Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. – Atmos., 110, D07105, doi:10.1029/2004JD005348. [SRC]

Arnell, N.W., 2006: Climate change and water resources: a global perspective. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, H.J. Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley and G. Yohe, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 168-175. [NPR, SRC]

Arnell, N.W. and E.K. Delaney, 2006: Adapting to climate change: public water supply in England and Wales. Climatic Change, 78, 227-255. [JoC, SRC]

Arnell, N.W. C. Liu, R. Compagnucci, L. da Cunha, K. Hanaki, C. Howe, G. Mailu, I Shiklomanov and E. Stakhiv, 2001: Hydrology and water resources. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken and K.S. White, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 191-234. [NPR, SRC]

Arnell, N.W., D.A. Hudson and R.G. Jones, 2003: Climate change scenarios from a regional climate model: estimating change in runoff in southern Africa. J. Geophys. Res. – Atmos., 108(D16), 4519. [MoS, SRC]

Atkinson, J.F., J.V. DePinto and D. Lam, 1999: Water quality. Potential Climate Change Effects on the Great Lakes Hydrodynamics and Water Quality, D. Lam and W. Schertzer, Eds., American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, Virginia. [NPR]

AWWA [American Water Works Association], 2006: Optimizing Filtration Operations. CD-ROM catalogue no. 64275 [available at http://www.awwa.org/bookstore]. [NPR]

Barlage, M.J., P.L. Richards, P.J. Sousounis and A.J. Brenner, 2002: Impacts of climate change and land use change on runoff from a Great Lakes watershed. J. Great Lakes Res., 28, 568-582. Clean

Barnett, T.P., R. Malone, W. Pennell, D. Stammer, B. Semtner and W. Washington, 2004: The effects of climate change on water resources in the West: introduction and overview. Climatic Change, 62, 1-11. [JoC]

Barnett, T.P., J.C. Adam and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2005: Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature, 438, 303-309. [JoC]

Bauer, C., 2004: Results of Chilean water markets: empirical research since 1990. Water Resour. Res., 40, W09S06. Clean

Beach, D., 2002: Coastal Sprawl: The Effects of Urban Design on Aquatic Ecosystems of the United States. Pew Oceans Commission, Arlington, Virginia, 40 pp. [NPR]

Beare, S. and A. Heaney, 2002: Climate change and water resources in the Murray Darling Basin, Australia; impacts and adaptation. ABARE Conference Paper 02.11, 33 pp., Canberra. [NPR]

Bedritsky, A.I., R.Z. Khamitov, I.A. Shiklomanov and I.S. Zektser, 2007: Water Resources of Russia and their Use in New Socio-economic Conditions with the Account of Possible Climate Change. Proceedings of the VIth All-Russia Hydrological Congress. Plenary Reports, St. Petersburg. (in press) (in Russian). [NPR, SRC, 2007]

Bell, R. and A. Heaney, 2001: A basin scale model for assessing salinity management options: model documentation, ABARET Technical Working Paper 2000.1, Canberra, 7 pp. [NPR, MoS]

Beltaos, S., T. Prowse, B. Bonsal, R. MacKay, L. Romolo, A. Pietroniro and B. Toth, 2006: Climatic effects on ice-jam flooding of the Peace-Athabasca Delta. Hydrol. Process., 20, 4031-4050. [ARC]

Bergström, S., B. Carlsson, M. Gardelin, G. Lindstrom, A. Pettersson and M. Rummukainen, 2001: Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden: assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling. Climate Res., 16, 101-112. [MoS]

Betts, R.A., P.M. Cox, S.E. Lee and F.I. Woodward, 1997: Contrasting physiological and structural vegetation feedbacks in climate change simulations. Nature, 387, 796-799. [JoC, MoS, SRC]

Betts, R.A., O. Boucher, M. Collins, P.M. Cox, P.D. Falloon, N. Gedney, D.L. Hemming, C. Huntingford, C.D. Jones, D.M.H. Sexton and M.J. Webb, 2007: Increase of projected 21st-century river runoff by plant responses to carbon dioxide rise. Nature, doi: 10.1038/nature06045. [NPR, SRC, 2007]

Beuhler, M., 2003: Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California. Water Sci. Technol., 47(7-8), 165-168. Clean

Bjornlund, H., 2004: Formal and informal water markets: drivers of sustainable rural communities? Water Resour. Res., 40, W09S07. Clean

Bobba, A., V. Singh, R. Berndtsson and L. Bengtsson, 2000: Numerical simulation of saltwater intrusion into Laccadive Island aquifers due to climate change. J. Geol. Soc. India, 55, 589-612. [MoS]

Booij, M.J., 2005: Impact of climate change on river flooding assessed with different spatial model resolutions. J. Hydrol., 303, 176-198. [MoS]

Boorman, D.B., 2003a: Climate, hydrochemistry and economics of surface-water systems (CHESS): adding a European dimension to the catchment modelling experience developed under LOIS. Sci. Total Environ., 314, 411-437. [MoS]

Boorman, D.B., 2003b: LOIS in-stream water quality modelling. Part 2. Results and scenarios. Sci. Total Environ., 314-316, 397-409. [MoS]

Bouraoui, F., B. Grizzetti, K. Granlund, S. Rekolainen and G. Bidoglio, 2004: Impact of climate change on the water cycle and nutrient losses in a Finnish catchment. Climatic Change, 66, 109-126. [JoC]

Brookshire, D.S., B. Colby, M. Ewers and P.T. Ganderton, 2004: Market prices for water in the semiarid west of the United States. Water Resour. Res., 40, W09S04. Clean

Brouyere, S., G. Carabin and A. Dassargues, 2004: Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium. Hydrogeol. J., 12, 123-134. [MoS]

Bruinsma, J., 2003: World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030 – An FAO Perspective. Earthscan, London, 444 pp. [NPR]

Bueh, C., U. Cubasch and S. Hagemann, 2003: Impacts of global warming on changes in the east Asian monsoon and the related river discharge in a global time-slice experiment. Climate Res., 24, 47-57. Clean

Burke, E.J., S.J. Brown and N. Christidis, 2006: Modelling the recent evolution of global drought and projections for the 21st century with the Hadley Centre climate model. J. Hydrometeorol., 7, 1113-1125. [JoC, MoS]

Burkett, V.R., D.B. Zilkoski and D.A. Hart, 2002: Sea-level rise and subsidence: implications for flooding in New Orleans, Louisiana. US Geological Survey Subsidence Interest Group Conference: Proceedings of the Technical Meeting, Galveston, Texas, 27-29 November 2001, 63-71. [NPR, ARC]

Burlando, P. and R. Rosso, 2002: Effects of transient climate change on basin hydrology. 2. Impacts on runoff variability in the Arno River, central Italy. Hydrol. Process., 16, 1177-1199. Clean

Buttle, J., T. Muir and J. Frain, 2004: Economic impacts of climate change on the Canadian Great Lakes hydro-electric power producers: a supply analysis. Can. Water Resour. J., 29, 89-110. Clean

Chang, H., 2003: Basin hydrologic response to changes in climate and land use: the Conestoga River basin, Pennsylvania. Phys. Geogr., 24, 222-247. Clean

Chang, H., B. Evans and D. Easterling, 2001: The effects of climate change on streamflow and nutrient loading. J. Am. Water Resour. As., 37, 973-985. Clean

Changnon, S.A., 2005: Economic impacts of climate conditions in the United States: past, present, and future – an editorial essay. Climatic Change, 68, 1-9. [JoC, MoS]

Chen, C., D. Gillig and B.A. McCarl, 2001: Effects of climatic change on a water-dependent regional economy: a study of the Texas Edwards aquifer. Climatic Change, 49, 397-409. [JoC]

Chen, Z., S. Grasby and K. Osadetz, 2004: Relation between climate variability and groundwater levels in the upper carbonate aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. J. Hydrol., 290, 43-62. Clean

Chiew, F.H.S., 2007: Estimation of rainfall elasticity of streamflow in Australia. Hydrol. Sci. J., 51, 613-625. [MoS, 2007]

Choi, O. and A. Fisher, 2003: The impacts of socioeconomic development and climate change on severe weather catastrophe losses: mid-Atlantic region MAR and the US. Climatic Change, 58, 149-170. [JoC]

Christensen, J.H. and O.B. Christensen, 2003: Severe summertime flooding in Europe. Nature, 421, 805. [JoC]

Christensen, N.S., A.W. Wood, N. Voisin, D.P. Lettenmaier and R.N. Palmer, 2004: The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin. Climatic Change, 62, 337-363. [JoC]

Clarke, R. and J. King, 2004: The Atlas of Water. Earthscan, London, 128 pp. [NPR]

Coe, M.T. and J.A. Foley, 2001: Human and natural impacts on the water resources of the Lake Chad basin. J. Geophys. Res. – Atmos., 106(D4), 3349-3356. Clean

Cohen, S. and T. Neale, 2006: Participatory integrated assessment of water management and climate change in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia. Final Report, Project A846. Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Environment Canada and University of British Columbia, Vancouver, 221 pp. [NPR, SRC]

Cohen, S., D. Neilsen, S. Smith, T. Neale, B. Taylor, M. Barton, W. Merritt, Y. Alila, P. Shepherd, R. McNeill, J. Tansey, J. Carmichael and S. Langsdale, 2006: Learning with local help: expanding the dialogue on climate change and water management in the Okanagan Region, British Columbia, Canada. Climatic Change, 75, 331-358. [JoC, SRC]

Colby, B.G., K. Crandall and D.B. Bush, 2004: Water right transactions: market values and price dispersion. Economics of Water Resources: Institutions, Instruments, and Policies for Managing Scarcity, K.W. Easter and M.E. Renwick, Eds., Ashgate, Aldershot. [NPR]

Conway, D., 2005: From headwater tributaries to international river: observing and adapting to climate variability and change in the Nile basin. Global Environ. Change, 15, 99-114. [JoC]

Cooley, H., P.H. Gleick and G. Wolff, 2006: Desalination: with a Grain of Salt. Pacific Institute, Oakland, California, 100 pp. [NPR]

Coudrain, A., B. Francou and Z.W. Kundzewicz, 2005: Glacier shrinkage in the Andes and consequences for water resources. Hydrol. Sci. J., 50, 925-932. [SRC]

Covey, C., K.M. Achuta Rao, U. Cubasch, P. Jones, S.J. Lambert, M.E. Mann, T.J. Phillips and K.E. Taylor, 2003: An overview of results from the coupled model intercomparison project. Global Planet. Change, 37, 103-133. [MoS]

Cox, P., I. Fisher, G. Kastl, V. Jegatheesan, M. Warnecke, M. Angles, H. Bustamante, T. Chiffings and P.R. Hawkins, 2003: Sydney 1998 – lessons from a drinking water crisis. J. Am. Water Works Assoc, 95, 147-161. Clean

Crabbe, P. and M. Robin, 2006: Institutional adaptation of water resource infrastructures to climate change in eastern Ontario. Climatic Change, 78, 103-133. [JoC]

Cunderlik, J.M. and S.P. Simonovic, 2005: Hydrological extremes in a southwestern Ontario river basin under future climate conditions. Hydrol. Sci. J., 50, 631-654. [MoS]

Curriero, F., J. Patz, J. Rose and S. Lele, 2001: The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948-1994. Am. J. Public Health, 91, 1194-1199. [ARC]

Daughton, C.G., 2004: Non-regulated water contaminants: emerging research. Environ. Impact Asses., 24, 711-732. Clean

De Araujo, J.C., A. Güntner and A. Bronstert, 2006: Loss of reservoir volume by sediment deposition and its impact on water availability in semiarid Brazil. Hydrol. Sci. J., 51, 157-170. Clean

Dennis, I.A., M.G. Macklin, T.J. Coulthard and P.A. Brewer, 2003: The impact of the October–November 2000 floods on contaminant metal dispersal on the River Swale catchment, North Yorkshire. Hydrol. Process., 17, 1641-1657. Clean

Dessai, S., X. Lu and J.S. Risbey, 2005: On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning. Global Environ. Change, 15, 87-97. [JoC, ARC]

Dettinger, M.D., 2005: From climate change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st century California. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, 3, 4. Clean

Dettinger, M.D., D.R. Cayan, M.K. Meyer and A.E. Jeton, 2004: Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900–2099. Climatic Change, 62, 283-317. [JoC, MoS, ARC]

DFID [Department for International Development], 2004: Key Sheet Series on the Impact of Climate Change on Poverty, Focusing on Vulnerability, Health and Pro-poor Growth. No. 01, 6 pp. [NPR]

Diaz-Nieto, J. and R. Wilby, 2005: A comparison of statistical downscaling and climate change factor methods: impact on low flows in the River Thames, United Kingdom. Climatic Change, 69, 245-268. [JoC, SRC]

Dibike, Y.B. and P. Coulibaly, 2005: Hydrologic impact of climate change in the Saguenay watershed: comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models. J. Hydrol., 307, 145-163. [MoS]

Döll, P., 2002: Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements: a global perspective. Climatic Change, 54, 269-293. [JoC, SRC]

Döll, P. and M. Flörke, 2005: Global-scale estimation of diffuse groundwater recharge. Frankfurt Hydrology Paper 03. Institute of Physical Geography, Frankfurt University, 26 pp. [NPR, MoS, SRC]

Döll, P., M. Flörke, M. Märker and S. Vassolo, 2003: Einfluss des Klimawandels auf Wasserressourcen und Bewässerungswasserbedarf: eine globale Analyse unter Berücksichtigung neuer Klimaszenarien (Impact of climate change on water resources and irrigation water requirements: a global analysis using new climate change scenarios). Klima - Wasser - Flussgebietsmanagement: im Lichte der Flut, H.-B. Kleeberg, Ed., Proceedings of Tag der Hydrologie 2003, Freiburg, Germany, Forum für Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung, 04.03, 11-14. [NPR, SRC]

Douville, H., F. Chauvin, S. Planton, J.F. Royer, D. Salas-Melia and S. Tyteca, 2002: Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Clim. Dynam., 20, 45-68. [JoC]

Downing, T.E., R.E. Butterfield, B. Edmonds, J.W. Knox, S. Moss, B.S. Piper, E.K. Weatherhead and the CCDeW project team, 2003: Climate change and the demand for water. Research Report, Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford Office, Oxford. [NPR, ARC]

Drogue, G., L. Pfister, T. Leviander, A. El Idrissi, J.-F. Iffly, P. Matgen, J. Humbert and L. Hoffmann, 2004: Simulating the spatio-temporal variability of streamflow response to climate change scenarios in a mesoscale basin. J. Hydrol., 293(1-4), 255-269. [MoS]

D’Souza, R., N. Becker, G. Hall and K. Moodie, 2004: Does ambient temperature affect foodborne disease? Epidemiology, 15, 86-92. Clean

Eakin, H. and M.C. Lemos, 2006: Adaptation and the state: Latin America and the challenge of capacity-building under globalization. Global Environ. Change, 16, 7-18. [JoC, ARC]

Easter, K.W. and M.E. Renwick, Eds., 2004: Economics of Water Resources: Institutions, Instruments and Policies for Managing Scarcity. Ashgate, Hampshire, 548 pp. [NPR]

Easter, K.W., M.W. Rosengrant and A. Dinar, 1998: Markets for Water: Potential and Performance. Kluwer Academic, Boston, Massachusetts, 352 pp. [NPR]

Eckhardt, K. and U. Ulbrich, 2003: Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain range. J. Hydrol., 284, 244-252. Clean

Eheart, J.W. and D.W. Tornil, 1999: Low-flow frequency exacerbation by irrigation withdrawals in the agricultural Midwest under various climate change scenarios. Water Resour. Res., 35, 2237-2246. Clean

Elguindi, N. and F. Giorgi, 2006: Projected changes in the Caspian Sea level for the 21st century based on the latest AOGCM simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08706. [JoC, MoS]

Environment Canada, 2001: Threats to sources of drinking water and aquatic ecosystems health in Canada. National Water Research Report No.1. National Water Resources Research Institute, Burlington, Ontario, 72 pp. [NPR]

Environment Canada, 2004: Threats to water availability in Canada. NWRI Scientific Assessment Report No. 3. Prowse and ASCD Science Assessments series No. 1. National Water Research Institute, Burlington, Ontario, 128 pp. [NPR]

Essink, G., 2001: Improving fresh groundwater supply problems and solutions. Ocean Coast. Manage., 44, 429-449. [JoC]

European Union, 2000: EU Water Framework Directive: Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a framework for the Community action in the field of water policy. EU Official Journal (OJ L 327, 22 December 2000). [NPR]

Evans, E., R. Ashley, J. Hall, E. Penning-Rowsell, A. Saul, P. Sayers, C. Thorne and A. Watkinson, 2004: Future Flooding: Scientific Summary. Volume 1: Future Risks and Their Drivers. Foresight, Office of Science and Technology, London [accessed 06.03.07: http://www.foresight.gov.uk/Previous_Projects/Flood_and_Coastal_Defence/Reports_and_Publications/Volume1/Contents.htm] [NPR, MoS, ARC]

Evans, J. and S. Schreider, 2002: Hydrological impacts of climate change on inflows to Perth, Australia. Climatic Change, 55, 361-393. [JoC]

FAO [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations], 2003: World Agriculture Towards 2015/2030 [accessed 06.03.07: http://www.fao.org/documents/show_cdr.asp?url_file=/docrep/004/y3557e/y3557e00.htm] [NPR]

Faruqui, N.I., A.K. Biswas and M.J. Bino, Eds., 2001: Water Management in Islam. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, 149 pp. [NPR]

Fayer, R., J. Trout, E. Lewis, E. Xiao, A. Lal, M. Jenkins and T. Graczyk, 2002: Temporal variability of Cryptosporidium in the Chesapeake Bay. Parasitol. Res., 88, 998-1003. Clean

Ferrier, R. and A. Edwards, 2002: Sustainability of Scottish water quality in the early 21st century. Sci. Total Environ., 294, 57-71. Clean

Fisher, A., 2000: Preliminary findings from the mid-Atlantic regional assessment. Climate Res., 14, 261-269. Clean

Forest, C., P. Stone, A. Sokolov, M. Allen and M. Webster, 2002: Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. Science, 295, 113-117. [JoC]

Fowler, H.J., C.G. Kilsby and J. Stunell, 2007: Modelling the impacts of projected future climate change on water resources in north-west England. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sc., 11, 1115-1126. [MoS, 2007]

Frei, A., R.L. Armstrong, M.P. Clark and M.C. Serreze, 2002: Catskill mountain water resources: vulnerability, hydroclimatology and climate-change sensitivity. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 92, 203-224. Clean

Galaz, V., 2005: Social-ecological resilience and social conflict: Institutions and strategic adaptation in Swedish water management. Ambio, 34, 567-572. Clean

Gedney, N., P.M. Cox, R.A. Betts, O. Boucher, C. Huntingford and P.A. Stott, 2006: Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records. Nature, 439, 835-838. [JoC, SRC]

GEO-LAC, 2003: Global Environmental Outlook. United Nations Environmental Program, 279 pp [accessed 06.03.07: http://www.unep.org/geo/pdfs/GEO__lac2003English.pdf] [NPR]

Gerten, D., S. Schaphoff, U. Haberlandt, W. Lucht and S. Sitch, 2004: Terrestrial vegetation and water balance: hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model. J. Hydrol., 286, 249-270. [MoS, ARC]

Giansante, C., M. Aguilar, L. Babiano, A. Garrido, A. Go´mez, E. Iglesias, W. Lise, L. Moral and B. Pedregal, 2002: Institutional adaptation to changing risk of water scarcity in the Lower Guadalquivir Basin. Nat. Resour. J., 42, 521-564. Clean

Giertz, S., B. Diekkruger, A. Jaeger and M. Schopp, 2006: An interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the water availability and water consumption in the Upper Oum catchment in Benin. Adv. Geosci., 9, 1-11. Clean

Gilvear, D., K. Heal and A. Stephen, 2002: Hydrology and the ecological quality of Scottish river ecosystems. Sci. Total Environ., 294, 131-159. Clean

Giorgi, F., B.C. Hewitson, C. Christensen, R. Fu and R.G. Jones, Eds., 2001: Regional climate information: evaluation and projections. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C.A. Johnson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 583-638. [NPR]

Giorgi, F., X. Bi and J. Pal, 2004: Mean, interannual variability and trend in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. II. Climate change scenarios 2071–2100. Clim. Dynam., 23, 839-858. [JoC]

Gleick, P.H., 2000: The removal of dams: a new dimension to an old debate. The World’s Water 2000–2001, P.H. Gleick, Ed., Island Press, Washington, District of Columbia, 11 pp. [NPR]

Gleick, P.H., 2003: Water use. Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 28, 275-314. Clean

Goodman, D.J., 2000: More reservoirs or transfers? A computable general equilibrium analysis of projected water shortages in the Arkansas River basin. J. Agr. Resour. Econ., 25, 698-713. Clean

Gordon, W. and J.S. Famiglietti, 2004: Response of the water balance to climate change in the United States over the 20th and 21st centuries: results from the VEMAP Phase 2 model intercomparisons. Global Biogeochem. Cy., 181, GB1030. [MoS]

Goss, K.F., 2003: Environmental flows, river salinity and biodiversity conservation: managing trade-offs in the Murray-Darling basin. Aust. J. Bot., 51, 619-625. Clean

Graham, L.P., 2004: Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea. Ambio, 33, 235-241. Clean

Graham, L.P., S. Hagemann, S. Jaun and M. Beniston, 2007a: On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models. Climatic Change, 81(Suppl. 1), 97-122. [JoC, MoS, ARC, 2007]

Graham, L.P., J. Andreasson and B. Carlsson, 2007b: Assessing climate change impacts on hydrology from an ensemble of regional climate models, model scales and linking methods: a case study on the Lule River basin. Climatic Change, 81(Suppl. 1), 293-307. [JoC, MoS, 2007]

GWP [Global Water Partnership], 2002: Dialogue on Effective Water Governance. GWP, 6 pp. [NPR]

Haines, A., A. McMichael and P. Epstein, 2000: Environment and health. 2. Global climate change and health. Can. Med. Assoc. J., 163, 729-734. [ARC]

Hall, G., R. D’Souza and M. Kirk, 2002: Foodborne disease in the new millennium: out of the frying pan and into the fire? Med. J. Australia, 177, 614-618. Clean

Hall, J.W., P.B. Sayers and R.J. Dawson, 2005: National-scale assessment of current and future flood risk in England and Wales. Nat. Hazards, 36, 147-164. [MoS, ARC]

Hamilton, S., N. Crookshank and D. Lam, 2001: Hydrological and hydraulic routing and decision support in the Seymour Watershed. Final Report for the Greater Vancouver Regional District Watershed Management Branch. Joint Report by the Environment Canada, National Research Council and the Canadian Hydraulics Centre, Canada, 96 pp. [NPR]

Han, M., M. Zhao, D. Li and X. Cao, 1999: Relationship between ancient channel and seawater intrusion in the south coastal plain of the Laizhou Bay. J. Nat. Disasters, 8, 73-80. Clean

Hawkes, P., S. Surendran and D. Richardson, 2003: Use of UKCIP02 climate-change scenarios in flood and coastal defence. J. Chart. Inst. Water E., 17, 214-219. Clean

Hayhoe, K., D. Cayan, C.B. Field, P.C. Frumhoff, E.P. Maurer, N.L. Miller, S.C. Moser, S.H. Schneider, K.N. Cahill, E.E. Cleland, L. Dale, R. Drapek, R.M. Hanemann, L.S. Kalkstein, J. Lenihan, C.K. Lunch, R.P. Neilson, S.C. Sheridan and J.H. Verville, 2004: Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California. P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101, 12422-12427. [PoC, JoC, ARC]

Herron, N., R. Davis and R. Jones, 2002: The effects of large-scale afforestation and climate change on water allocation in the Macquarie River catchment, NSW, Australia. J. Environ. Manage., 65, 369-381. [ARC]

Hijioka, Y., K. Takahashi, Y. Matsuoka and H. Harasawa, 2002: Impact of global warming on waterborne diseases. J. Jpn. Soc. Water Environ., 25, 647-652. [ARC]

Holman, I.P., R.J. Nicholls, P.M. Berry, P.A. Harrison, E. Audsley, S. Shackley and M.D.A. Rounsevell, 2005a: A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK. Part 2. Results. Climatic Change, 71, 43-73. [JoC, ARC]

Holman, I.P., M.D.A. Rounsevell, S. Shackley, P.A. Harrison, R.J. Nicholls, P.M. Berry and E. Audsley, 2005b: A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK. Part 1. Methodology. Climatic Change, 71, 9-41. [JoC, ARC]

Horbulyk, T.M., 2006: Liquid gold: water markets in Canada. Eau Canada: The Future of Canada’s Water, K.J. Bakker, Ed., UBC Press, Vancouver, 205-218. [NPR, MoS]

Howard, C.D.D., 2000: Operation, Monitoring and Decommissioning of Dams: Thematic Review IV.5 Prepared as an Input to the World Commission on Dams, Cape Town. 127 pp. [Accessed 06.03.07: http://www.dams.org/docs/kbase/thematic/tr45main.pdf] [NPR]

Howe, C.W., 2005: Property rights, water rights and the changing scene in western water. Water Institutions: Policies, Performance and Prospects, C. Gopalakrishnan, C. Tortajada and A.K. Biswas, Eds., Springer, Berlin, 175-185. [NPR]

Hrasko, B. and R. McNeill, 2006: Costs of adaptation measures: participatory integrated assessment of water management and climate change in the Okanagan Basin, British Columbia. Final Report, Project A846, S. Cohen and T. Neale, Eds., Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Environment Canada and University of British Columbia, Vancouver, 43-55. [NPR]

Huffaker, R., 2005: Finding a modern role for the prior appropriation doctrine in the American West. Water Institutions: Policies, Performance and Prospects, C. Gopalakrishnan, C. Tortajada and A.K. Biswas, Eds., Springer, Berlin, 187-200. [NPR]

Hunter, P., 2003: Climate change and waterborne and vector borne disease. J. Appl. Microbiol., 94, 37-46. Clean

Huntington, T.G., 2006: Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: review and synthesis. J. Hydrol., 319, 83-95. Clean

Hurd, B.H., M. Callaway, J. Smith and P. Kirshen, 2004: Climatic change and US water resources: from modeled watershed impacts to national estimates. J. Am. Water Resour. As., 40, 129-148. [MoS, ARC]

IPCC, 1992: Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callander and S.K. Varney, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 200 pp. [NPR]

IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C.A. Johnson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 881 pp. [NPR]

IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1-18. [NPR, 2007]

Ivey, J.L., J. Smithers, R.C. De Loe and R.D. Kreutzwiser, 2004: Community capacity for adaptation to climate-induced water shortages: linking institutional complexity and local actors. Environ. Manage., 33, 36-47. Clean

Jasper, K., P. Calanca, D. Gyalistras and J. Fuhrer, 2004: Differential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of two alpine rivers. Climate Res., 26, 113-125. [ARC]

Jenkins, G. and J. Lowe, 2003: Handling uncertainties in the UKCIP02 scenarios of climate change. Hadley Centre Technical Note 44, Meteorological Office, Exeter, 15 pp. [NPR, ARC]

Jha, M., Z.T. Pan, E.S. Takle and R. Gu, 2004: Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: a regional climate model perspective. J. Geophys. Res. – Atmos., 109(D9), D09105. [MoS]

Jiménez, B., 2003: Health risks in aquifer recharge with recycle water. State of the Art Report: Health Risk in Aquifer Recharge Using Reclaimed Water, R. Aertgeerts and A. Angelakis, Eds., WHO Regional Office for Europe, 54-172. [NPR, SRC]

Jiménez, B. and H. Garduño, 2001: Social, political and scientific dilemmas for massive wastewater reuse in the world. Navigating Rough Waters: Ethical Issues in the Water Industry, C. Davis and R. McGin, Eds., American Water Works Association (AWWA), London, 148. [NPR, SRC]

Jones, R.G., M. Noguer, D.C. Hassell, D. Hudson, S.S. Wilson, G.J. Jenkins and J. Mitchell, 2004: Generating High Resolution Climate Change Scenarios Using PRECIS. Meteorological Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, 40 pp. [NPR]

Jones, R.N. and C.M. Page, 2001: Assessing the risk of climate change on the water resources of the Macquarie River catchment. Integrating Models for Natural Resources Management Across Disciplines: Issues and Scales, F. Ghassemi, P.H. Whetton, R. Little and M. Littleboy, Eds., Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, Canberra, 673-678. [NPR, MoS, ARC]

Justic, D., N.N. Rabalais and R.E. Turner, 2005: Coupling between climate variability and coastal eutrophication: evidence and outlook for the northern Gulf of Mexico. J. Sea Res., 54, 25-35. Clean

Kabat, P. and H. van Schaik, 2003: Climate Changes the Water Rules: How Water Managers Can Cope With Today’s Climate Variability and Tomorrow’s Climate Change. Dialogue on Water and Climate. Printfine, Liverpool, 106 pp. [NPR, SRC]

Kanae, S., T. Oki and K. Musiake, 2001: Impact of deforestation on regional precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula. J. Hydrometeorol., 2, 51-70. [JoC, SRC]

Karl, T. and K. Trenberth, 2003: Modern global change. Science, 302, 1719-1722. [PoC, JoC]

Kashyap, A., 2004: Water governance: learning by developing adaptive capacity to incorporate climate variability and change. Water Sci. Technol., 19(7), 141-146. Clean

Kaspar, F., 2003: Entwicklung und Unsicherheitsanalyse eines globalen hydrologischen Modells (Development and uncertainty analysis of a global hydrological model). PhD dissertation, University of Kassel, Germany, 139 pp. [NPR, MoS]

Kay, A., V. Bell and H. Davies, 2006a: Model Quality and Uncertainty for Climate Change Impact. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford. [NPR, MoS]

Kay, A., N.S. Reynard and R.N. Jones, 2006b: RCM rainfall for UK flood frequency estimation. II. Climate change results. J. Hydrol., 318, 163-172. [MoS, ARC]

Kennish, M., 2002: Environmental threats and environmental future of estuaries. Environ. Conserv., 29, 78-107. [MoS]

Kergoat, L., S. Lafont, H. Douville, B. Berthelot, G. Dedieu, S. Planton and J.-F. Royer, 2002: Impact of doubled CO₂ on global-scale leaf area index and evapotranspiration: conflicting stomatal conductance and LAI responses. J. Geophys. Res. – Atmos., 107(D24), 4808. Clean

Kharkina, M.A., 2004: Natural resources in towns. Energia, 2, 44-50. Clean

Khiyami, H.A., Z.Z. ?en, S.G. Al-Harthy, F.A. Al-Ammawi, A.B. Al-Balkhi, M.I. Al-Zahrani and H.M. Al-Hawsawy, 2005: Flood hazard evaluation in Wadi Hali and Wadi Yibah. Technical Report SGS-TR-2004-6, Saudi Geological Survey, Jeddah, 35 pp. [NPR]

Kim, J., 2005: A projection of the effects of the climate change induced by increased CO₂ on extreme hydrologic events in the western US. Climatic Change, 68, 153-168. [JoC, MoS]

Kirshen, P., M. McCluskey, R. Vogel and K. Strzepek, 2005a: Global analysis of changes in water supply yields and costs under climate change: a case study in China. Climatic Change, 68, 303-330. [JoC]

Kirshen, P., M. Ruth and W. Anderson, 2005b: Responding to climate change in Metropolitan Boston: the role of adaptation. New Engl. J. Public Pol., 20, 89-104. Clean

Kirshen, P.H., 2002: Potential impacts of global warming on groundwater in eastern Massachusetts. J. Water Res. Pl. –ASCE, 128, 216-226. [NPR]

Kistemann, T., T. Classen, C. Koch, F. Dagendorf, R. Fischeder, J. Gebel, V. Vacata and M. Exner, 2002: Microbial load of drinking water reservoirs tributaries during extreme rainfall and runoff. Appl. Environ. Microb., 68, 2188-2197. Clean

Klein, R. and R. Nicholls, 1999: Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change. Ambio, 28, 182-187. [ARC]

Kleinen, T. and G. Petschel-Held, 2007: Integrated assessment of changes in flooding probabilities due to climate change. Climatic Change, 81, 283-312. [JoC, 2007]

Klijn, F., J. Dijkman and W. Silva, 2001: Room for the Rhine in the Netherlands. Summary of Research Results. RIZA Report 2001.033. [NPR]

Klijn, F., M. van Buuren and S.A.M. van Rooij, 2004: Flood-risk management strategies for an uncertain future: living with Rhine river floods in the Netherlands? Ambio, 33, 141-147. [MoS]

Knighton, A.D., C.D. Woodroffe and K. Mills, 1992: The evolution of tidal creek networks, Mary River, Northern Australia. Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 17, 167-90. [ARC]

Knowles, N. and D.R. Cayan, 2004: Elevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the San Francisco Estuary and watershed. Climatic Change, 62, 319-336. [JoC, ARC]

Kostaschuk, R., J. Terry and R. Raj, 2002: Suspended sediment transport during tropical-cyclone floods in Fiji. Hydrol. Process., 17, 1149-1164. Clean

Kron, W. and G. Berz, 2007: Flood disasters and climate change: trends and options – a (re-)insurer’s view. Global Change: Enough Water for All? J.L. Lozán, H. Graßl, P. Hupfer, L. Menzel and C.-D. Schönwiese, Eds., Hamburg, 268-273. [NPR, 2007]

Krysanova, V. and F. Wechsung, 2002: Impact of climate change and higher CO₂ on hydrological processes and crop productivity in the state of Brandenburg, Germany. Climatic Change: Implications for the Hydrological Cycle and for Water Management, M. Beniston, Ed., Kluwer, Dordrecht, 271-300. [NPR]

Krysanova, V., F. Hattermann and A. Habeck, 2005: Expected changes in water resources availability and water quality with respect to climate change in the Elbe River basin (Germany). Nord. Hydrol., 36, 321-333. Clean

Kumagai, M., K. Ishikawa and J. Chunmeng, 2003: Dynamics and biogeochemical significance of the physical environment in Lake Biwa. Lakes Reserv. Res. Manage., 7, 345-348. Clean

Kundzewicz, Z.W. and K. Takeuchi, 1999: Flood protection and management: quo vadimus? Hydrol. Sci. J., 44, 417-432. [SRC]

Kundzewicz, Z.W., S. Budhakooncharoen, A. Bronstert, H. Hoff, D. Lettenmaier, L. Menzel and R. Schulze, 2002: Coping with variability and change: floods and droughts. Nat. Resour. Forum, 26, 263-274. [SRC]

Kundzewicz, Z.W., U. Ulbrich, T. Brücher, D. Graczyk, A. Krüger, G. Leckebusch, L. Menzel, I. Pi?skwar, M. Radziejewski and M. Szwed, 2005: Summer floods in Central Europe: climate change track? Nat. Hazards, 36, 165-189. [SRC]

Kundzewicz, Z.W., M. Radziejewski and I. Pi?skwar, 2006: Precipitation extremes in the changing climate of Europe. Climate Res. 31, 51–58. [SRC]

Leemans, R. and A. Kleidon, 2002: Regional and global assessment of the dimensions of desertification. Global Desertification: Do Humans Cause Deserts? J.F. Reynold and D.S. Smith Eds., Dahlem University Press, Berlin, 215-232. [NPR, ARC]

Legesse, D., C. Vallet-Coulomb and F. Gasse, 2003: Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in Tropical Africa: case study South Central Ethiopia. J. Hydrol., 275, 67-85. Clean

Lehman, J., 2002: Mixing patterns and plankton biomass of the St. Lawrence Great Lakes under climate change scenarios. J. Great Lakes Res., 28, 583-596. Clean

Lehner, B., G. Czisch and S. Vassolo, 2005a: The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis. Energ. Policy, 33, 839-855. [MoS]

Lehner, B., P. Döll, J. Alcamo, H. Henrichs and F. Kaspar, 2005b: Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in Europe: a continental, integrated assessment. Climatic Change, 75, 273-299. [JoC, MoS, SRC]

Leipprand, A. and D. Gerten, 2006: Global effects of doubled atmospheric CO₂ content on evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff under potential natural vegetation. Hydrol. Sci. J., 51, 171-185. Clean

Lemke, P., J. Ren, R. Alley, I. Allison, J. Carrasco, G. Flato, Y. Fujii, G. Kaser, P. Mote, R. Thomas and T. Zhang, 2007: Observations: changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 337-384. [NPR, ARC, 2007]

Lenton, R., 2004: Water and climate variability: development impacts and coping strategies. Water Sci. Technol., 49(7), 17-24. Clean

Leung, L.R., Y. Qian, X. Bian, W.M. Washington, J. Han and J.O. Roads, 2004: Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the western United States. Climatic Change, 62, 75-113. [JoC]

Lipp, E., R. Kurz, R. Vincent, C. Rodriguez-Palacios, S. Farrah and J. Rose, 2001: The effects of seasonal variability and weather on microbial faecal pollution and enteric pathogens in a subtropical estuary. Estuaries, 24, 226-276. Clean

Loáiciga, H., 2003: Climate change and ground water. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 93, 30-41. Clean

Lofgren, B., A. Clites, R. Assel, A. Eberhardt and C. Luukkonen, 2002: Evaluation of potential impacts on Great Lakes water resources based on climate scenarios of two GCMs. J. Great Lakes Res., 28, 537-554. Clean

Loomis, J.B., K. Quattlebaum, T.C. Brown and S.J. Alexander, 2003: Expanding institutional arrangements for acquiring water for environmental purposes: transactions evidence for the Western United States. Water Resour. Dev., 19, 21-28. Clean

LOSLR [International Lake Ontario–St. Lawrence River Study Board], 2006: Options for managing Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River water levels and flows. Final Report to the International Joint Commission, 162 pp.[Accessed 06.03.07: http://www.losl.org/PDF/report-main-e.pdf] [NPR]

Loukas, A., L. Vasiliades and N.R. Dalezios, 2002a: Climatic impacts on the runoff generation processes in British Columbia, Canada. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sc., 6, 211-227. Clean

Loukas, A., L. Vasiliades and N.R. Dalezios, 2002b: Potential climate change impacts on flood producing mechanisms in southern British Columbia, Canada using the CGCMA1 simulation results. J. Hydrol., 259, 163-188. [MoS]

Luketina, D. and M. Bender, 2002: Incorporating long-term trends in water availability in water supply planning. Water Sci. Technol., 46(6-7), 113-120. Clean

MacNeil, R., 2004: Costs of adaptation options. Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Change and Water Management in the Okanagan Basin, S. Cohen, D. Neilsen and R. Welbourn, Eds., Final Report, Environment Canada, British Columbia, 161-163.Available from www.ires.ubc.ca, last accessed 01.05.07 [NPR]

Magadza, C., 2000: Climate change impacts and human settlements in Africa: prospects for adaptation. Environ. Monit. Assess., 61, 193-205. [ARC]

Magrin, G.O., M.I. Travasso and G.R. Rodríguez, 2005: Changes in climate and crops production during the 20th century in Argentina. Climatic Change, 72, 229-249. [JoC, ARC]

Manabe, S., P.C.D. Milly and R. Wetherald, 2004a: Simulated long term changes in river discharge and soil moisture due to global warming. Hydrol. Sci. J., 49, 625-642. [MoS]

Manabe, S., R.T. Wetherald, P.C.D. Milly, T.L. Delworth and R.J. Stouffer, 2004b: Century scale change in water availability: CO₂ quadrupling experiment. Climatic Change, 64, 59-76. [JoC]

Mark, B.G. and G.O. Seltzer, 2003: Tropical glacier meltwater contribution to stream discharge: a case study in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. J. Glaciol., 49, 271-281. Clean

Mata, L.J. and J. Budhooram, 2007: Complementarity between mitigation and adaptation: the water sector. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, doi:10.1007/s11027-007-9100-y. [NPR, 2007]

Matthews, O.P., 2004: Fundamental questions about water rights and market reallocation. Water Resour. Res., 40, W09S08, doi:10.1029/2003WR002836. Clean

Maurer, E.P. and P.B. Duffy, 2005: Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L03704. [JoC, MoS]

Maya, C., N. Beltrán, B. Jiménez and P. Bonilla, 2003: Evaluation of the UV disinfection process in bacteria and amphizoic amoebeae inactivation. Water Sci. Technol., 3(4), 285-291. [SRC]

McMichael, A., D. Campbell-Lendrum, C. Corvalán, K. Ebi, A. Githeko, J. Scheraga and A. Woodward, Eds., 2003: Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses. WHO, Geneva, 322 pp. [NPR, ARC]

Mearns, L., M. Hulme, T. Carter, R. Leemans, M. Lal and P. Whetton, 2001: Climate scenario development. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C.A. Johnson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 739-768. [NPR, ARC]

Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster and C. Tebaldi, 2005: Understanding future patterns of precipitation intensity in climate model simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18719, doi:10.1029/2005GL023680. [JoC, MoS, ARC]

Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker and Co-authors, 2007: Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 747-846. [NPR, ARC, 2007]

Meleshko, V.P., V.M. Kattsov, V.A. Govorkova, S.P. Malevsky-Malevich, E.D. Nadezhina and P.V. Sporyshev, 2004: Anthropogenic climate change in the XXIst century in North Eurasia. Meteorologia Hydrologia, 7, 5-26 (in Russian). Clean

Menzel, L. and G. Burger, 2002: Climate change scenarios and runoff response in the Mulde catchment (Southern Elbe, Germany). J. Hydrol., 267, 53-64. Clean

Michael, A., J. Schmidt, W. Enke, T. Deutschlander and G. Malitz, 2005: Impact of expected increase in precipitation intensities on soil loss results of comparative model simulations. Catena, 61, 155-164. [MoS]

Middelkoop, H., K. Daamen, D. Gellens, W. Grabs, J.C.J. Kwadijk, H. Lang, B.W.A.H. Parmet, B. Schädler, J. Schulla and K. Wilke, 2001: Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine basin. Climatic Change, 49, 105-128. [JoC]

Middelkoop, H., M.B.A. van Asselt, S.A. van ’t Klooster, W.P.A. van Deursen, J.C.J. Kwadijk and H. Buiteveld, 2004: Perspectives on flood management in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. River Res. Appl., 20, 327-342. Clean

Mileti, D.S., 1999: Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States. Joseph Henry Press, Washington, District of Columbia, 351 pp. [NPR]

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005a: Ecosystems and Human Well-being. Volume 2: Scenarios. Island Press, Washington, District of Columbia, 515 pp. [NPR]

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005b: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Island Press, Washington, District of Columbia, 155 pp. [NPR]

Miller, K.A., 2000: Managing supply variability: the use of water banks in the western United States. Drought: A Global Assessment, D.A. Wilhiten, Ed., Routledge, London, 70-86. [NPR, SRC]

Miller, K.A. and D. Yates, 2006: Climate Change and Water Resources: A Primer for Municipal Water Providers. AWWA Research Foundation, Denver, Colorado, 83 pp. [NPR, SRC]

Miller, K.A., S.L. Rhodes and L.J. MacDonnell, 1997: Water allocation in a changing climate: institutions and adaptation. Climatic Change, 35, 157-177. [JoC, SRC]

Mills, E., 2005: Insurance in a climate of change. Science, 309, 1040-1044. [JoC, ARC]

Milly, P.C.D., R.T. Wetherald, K.A. Dunne and T.L. Delworth, 2002: Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature, 415, 514-517. [JoC]

Milly, P.C.D., K.A. Dunne and A.V. Vecchia, 2005: Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature, 438, 347-350. [JoC]

Mimikou, M., E. Blatas, E. Varanaou and K. Pantazis, 2000: Regional impacts of climate change on water resources quantity and quality indicators. J. Hydrol., 234, 95-109. Clean

Ministry for the Environment, 2001: Climate Change Impacts in New Zealand. Ministry for the Environment, Wellington, 39 pp. [NPR]

Mirza, M.M.Q., 2003: Three recent extreme floods in Bangladesh: a hydro-meteorological analysis. Nat. Hazards, 28, 35-64. Clean

Mirza, M.M.Q., R.A. Warrick and N.J. Ericksen, 2003: The implications of climate change on floods of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rrivers in Bangladesh. Climatic Change, 57, 287-318. [JoC, ARC]

Moench, M., A. Dixit, S. Janakarajan, M.S. Rathore and S. Mudrakartha, 2003: The Fluid Mosaic: Water Governance in the Context of Variability, Uncertainty and Change – A Synthesis Paper. Nepal Water Conservation Foundation, Kathmandu, 71 pp. [NPR]

Morrison, J., M. Quick and M. Foreman, 2002: Climate change in the Fraser River watershed: flow and temperature projections. J. Hydrol., 263, 230-244. [MoS]

Mote, P.W., D.J. Canning, D.L. Fluharty, R.C. Francis, J.F. Franklin, A.F. Hamlet, M. Hershman, M. Holmberg, K.N. Gray-Ideker, W.S. Keeton, D.P. Lettenmaier, L.R. Leung, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, B. Noble, H. Parandvash, D.W. Peterson, A.K. Snover and S.R. Willard, 1999: Impacts of Climate Variability and Change, Pacific Northwest. National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, Office of Global Programs, and JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington, 110 pp. [NPR, ARC]

Mote, P.W., E.A. Parson, A.F. Hamlet, K.N. Ideker, W.S. Keeton, D.P. Lettenmaier, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, D.W. Peterson, D.L. Peterson, R. Slaughter and A.K. Snover, 2003: Preparing for climatic change: the water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change, 61, 45-88. [JoC, ARC]

Moulton, R. and D. Cuthbert, 2000: Cumulative impacts/risk assessment of water removal or loss from the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River system. Can. Water Resour. J., 25, 181-208. Clean

Mulrennan, M. and C. Woodroffe, 1998: Saltwater intrusions into the coastal plains of the Lower Mary River, Northern Territory, Australia. J. Environ. Manage., 54, 169-88. [ARC]

Murphy, J.M., D.M.H. Sexton, D.N. Barnett, G.S. Jones, M.J. Webb, M. Collins and D.A. Stainforth, 2004: Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature, 430, 768-772. [JoC, MoS]

Naess, L.O., G. Bang, S. Eriksen and J. Vevatne, 2005: Institutional adaptation to climate change: flood responses at the municipal level in Norway. Global Environ. Change, 15, 125-138. [JoC]

Naki?enovi?, N. and R. Swart, Eds., 2000: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 599 pp. [NPR]

Nawaz, N.R. and A.J. Adeloye, 2006: Monte Carlo assessment of sampling uncertainty of climate change impacts on water resources yield in Yorkshire, England. Climatic Change, 78, 257-292. [JoC, MoS]

Nearing, M.A., 2001: Potential changes in rainfall erosivity in the United States with climate change during the 21st century. J. Soil Water Conserv., 56, 229-232. [SRC]

Nearing, M.A., V. Jetten, C. Baffaut, O. Cerdan, A. Couturier, M. Hernandez, Y. Le Bissonnais, M.H. Nichols, J.P. Nunes, C.S. Renschler, V. Souchère and K. Van Oost, 2005: Modeling response of soil erosion and runoff to changes in precipitation and cover. Catena, 61, 131-154. [MoS, SRC]

Neff, R., H. Chang, C. Knight, R. Najjar, B. Yarnal and H. Walker, 2000: Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources. Climate Res., 14, 207-218. Clean

Neilsen, D., W. Koch, W. Merritt, G. Frank, S. Smith, Y. Alila, J. Carmichael, T. Neale and R. Welbourn, 2004: Risk assessment and vulnerability: case studies of water supply and demand. Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Change and Water Management in the Okanagan Basin, S. Cohen, D. Neilsen and R. Welbourn, Eds., British Columbia, 115-135. [NPR]

Nicholson, S., 2005: On the question of the “recovery” of the rains in the West African Sahel. J. Arid Environ., 63, 615-641. Clean

Nohara, D., A. Kitoh, M. Hosaka and T. Oki, 2006: Impact of climate change on river runoff. J. Hydrometeorol., 7, 1076-1089. [JoC, SRC]

O’Neal, M.R., M.A. Nearing, R.C. Vining, J. Southworth and R.A. Pfeifer, 2005: Climate change impacts on soil erosion in Midwest United States with changes in corn–soybean–wheat management. Catena, 61, 165-184. [SRC]

O’Reilly, C., S. Alin, P. Plisnier, A. Cohen and B. Mckee, 2003: Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa. Nature, 424, 766-768. [JoC, ARC]

Oki, T., 2005: The hydrologic cycles and global circulation. Encyclopaedia of Hydrological Sciences, M.G. Anderson, Ed., John Wiley and Sons, Chichester. [NPR, SRC]

Oki, T. and S. Kanae, 2006: Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science, 313, 1068-1072. [JoC, SRC]

Oki, T., Y. Agata, S. Kanae, T. Saruhashi and K. Musiake, 2003a: Global water resources assessment under climatic change in 2050 using TRIP. Water Resources: Systems Water Availability and Global Change, S. Franks, G. Blöschl, M. Kumagai, K. Musiake and D. Rosbjerg, Eds., IAHS Publication No. 280, 124-133. [NPR, SRC]

Oki, T., Sato, M., Kawamura, A., Miyaka, M., Kanae, S. and Musiake, K., 2003b: Virtual Water Trade to Japan and in the World. Value of Water Research Report Series. IHE, Delft, pp. 221-235. [NPR, SRC]

Olsen, J.R., 2006: Climate change and floodplain management in the United States. Climatic Change, 76, 407-426. [JoC]

Orr, P. and B. Colby, 2004: Groundwater management institutions to protect riparian habitat. Water Resour. Res., 40, W12S03, doi:10.1029/2003WR002741. Clean

Pachauri, R., 2004: Climate change and its implications for development: the role of IPCC assessments. IDS Bull.–I. Dev. Stud., 35, 11. Clean

Palmer, T.N. and J. Räisänen, 2002: Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature, 415, 512-514. [JoC]

Patrinos, A. and A. Bamzai, 2005: Policy needs robust climate science. Nature, 438, 285. [JoC]

Patz, J., 2001: Public health risk assessment linked to climatic and ecological change. Hum. Ecol. Risk Assess., 7, 1317-1327. [ARC]

Payne, J.T., A.W. Wood, A.F. Hamlet, R.N. Palmer and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2004: Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin. Climatic Change, 62, 233-256. [JoC, ARC]

Peirson, W., R. Nittim, M. Chadwick, K. Bishop and P. Horton, 2001: Assessment of changes to saltwater/freshwater habitat from reductions in flow to the Richmond River estuary, Australia. Water Sci. Technol., 43(9), 89-97. Clean

Pfeifer, R.A. and M. Habeck, 2002: Farm level economic impacts of climate change. Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Agricultural Production Systems, O.C. Doering, J.C. Randolph, J. Southworth and R.A. Pfeifer, Eds., Academic Publishers, Boston, Massachusetts, 159-178. [NPR]

Pfister, L., J. Kwadijk, A. Musy, A. Bronstert and L. Hoffmann, 2004: Climate change, land use change and runoff prediction in the Rhine-Meuse basins. River Res. Appl., 20, 229-241. [MoS]

Pielke, R.A., Jr. and M.W. Downton, 2000: Precipitation and damaging floods: trends in the United States, 1932–97. J. Climate, 13, 3625-3637. [JoC]

Pittock, B., 2003: Climate Change: An Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts. Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, 239 pp. [NPR]

Protopapas, L., S. Katchamart and A. Platonova, 2000: Weather effects on daily water use in New York City. J. Hydrol. Eng., 5, 332-338. Clean

Prudhomme, C., 2006: GCM and downscaling uncertainty in modelling of current river flow: why is it important for future impacts? Proc. 5^th FRIEND World Conf., Havana. IAHS Publication, 308, 375-381. [MoS, SRC]

Prudhomme, C. and H. Davies, 2007: Comparison of different sources of uncertainty in climate change impact studies in Great Britain. Hydrol. Process. (Special issue on International Workshop “Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on Water Resources Variability”), in press. [NPR, SRC, 2007]

Prudhomme, C., D. Jakob and C. Svensson, 2003: Uncertainty and climate change impact on the flood regime of small UK catchments. J. Hydrol., 277, 1-23. [SRC]

Pruski, F.F. and Nearing, M.A., 2002a: Climate-induced changes in erosion during the 21st century for eight U.S. locations. Water Resour. Res., 38, 1298. [SRC]

Pulwarty, R.S. and T.S. Melis, 2001: Climate extremes and adaptive management on the Colorado River: lessons from the 1997–1998 ENSO event. J. Environ. Manage., 63, 307-324. [SRC]

Ragab, R., Ed., 2005: Advances in Integrated Management of Fresh and Saline Water for Sustainable Crop Production: Modeling and Practical Solutions. Special Issue of Int. J. Agr. Water Manage. 78, 1-164. [NPR, MoS]

Ragab, R. and C. Prudhomme, 2002: Climate change and water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions: prospective and challenges for the 21st century. Biosyst. Eng., 81, 3-34. [SRC]

Räisänen, J., U. Hansson, A. Ullerstieg, R. Döscher, L.P. Graham, C. Jones, H.E.M. Meier, P. Samuelson and U. Willén, 2004: European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Clim. Dynam., 22, 13-31. [JoC, MoS]

Reilly, J., F. Tubiello, B. McCarl, D. Abler, R. Darwin, K. Fuglie, S. Hollinger, C. Izaurralde, S. Jagtap, J. Jones, L. Mearns, D. Ojima, E. Paul, K. Paustian, S. Riha, N. Rosenberg and C. Rosenzweig, 2003: U.S. agriculture and climate change: new results. Climatic Change, 57, 43-69. [JoC, ARC]

Reynard, N., S. Crooks, R. Wilby and A. Kay, 2004: Climate Change and Flood Frequency in the UK, Proceedings of the 39th DEFRA Flood and Coastal Management Conference, York. Defra, London, 11.1.1-11.1.12. [NPR, SRC]

Richardson, D., 2002: Flood risk: the impact of climate change. P. I. Civil Eng.–Civ. En., 150, 22-24. Clean

Robarts, R., M. Kumagai and C.H. Magadza, 2005: Climate change impacts on lakes: technical report of the session ‘Ecosystem Approach to Water Monitoring and Management’ organized at the World Water Forum II in Kyoto. Climatic Change Ecosystem Approach to Water Monitoring and Management, UNEP Publication, Nairobi. [NPR]

Rose, J., S. Daeschner, D. Easterling, E. Curriero, L. Lele and J. Patz, 2000: Climate and waterborne outbreaks. J. Am. Water Works Assoc., 92, 87-97. [ARC]

Rosenberg, N.J., R.A. Brown, C. Izaurralde and A.M. Thomson, 2003: Integrated assessment of Hadley Centre HadCM2 climate change projections on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States. I. Climate change scenarios and impacts on irrigation water supply simulated with the HUMUS model. Agr. Forest Meteorol., 117, 73-96. [MoS]

Rosso, R., M.C. Rulli and G. Vannucchi, 2006: A physically based model for the hydrologic control on shallow landsliding. Water Resour. Res., 42, W06410. [MoS]

Roy, L., R. Leconte, F.P. Brisette and C. Marche, 2001: The impact of climate change on seasonal floods of a southern Quebec River Basin. Hydrol. Process., 15, 3167-3179. Clean

Rumsby, B.T. and M.G. Macklin, 1994: Channel and floodplain response to recent abrupt climate change: the Tyne Basin, Northern England. Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 19, 499-515. Clean

Saleth, R.M. and A. Dinar, 2004: Institutional Economics of Water: A Cross-Country Analysis of Institutions and Performance. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 398 pp. [NPR]

Schiermeier, Q., 2006: Insurers’ disaster files suggest climate is culprit. Nature, 441, 674-675. [JoC]

Schindler, D., 2001: The cumulative effects of climate warming and other human stresses on Canadian freshwaters in the new millennium. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 58, 18-29. Clean

Schlenker, W., W.M. Hanemann and A.C. Fisher, 2005: Will U.S. agriculture really benefit from global warming? Accounting for irrigation in the hedonic approach. Am. Econ. Rev., 95, 395-406. Clean

Schneeberger, C., H. Blatter, A. Abe-Ouchi and M. Wild, 2003: Modelling changes in the mass balance of glaciers of the northern hemisphere for a transient 2* CO₂ scenario. J. Hydrol., 282, 145-163. [MoS]

Schreider, S.Y., D.I. Smith and A.J. Jakeman, 2000: Climate change impacts on urban flooding. Climatic Change, 47, 91-115. [JoC]

Schwartz, R.C., P.J. Deadman, D.J. Scott and L.D. Mortsch, 2004: Modeling the impacts of water level changes on a Great Lakes community. J. Am. Water Resour. As., 40, 647-662. [MoS, ARC]

Scott, T., E. Lipp and J. Rose, 2004: The effects of climate change on waterborne disease. Microbial Waterborne Pathogens, E. Cloete, J. Rose, L.H. Nel and T. Ford, Eds., IWA Publishing, London. [NPR]

Scudder, T., 2005: The Future of Large Dams. Earthscan, London, 408 pp. [NPR, MoS]

Seckler, D., U. Amarasinghe, D. Molden, R. de Silva and R. Barker, 1998: World water demand and supply, 1990 to 2025: scenarios and issues. Report 19, International Water Management Research Institute, Sri Lanka, 50 pp. [NPR]

Shabalova, M.V., W.P.A. van Deursen and T.A. Buishand, 2003: Assessing future discharge of the river Rhine using regional climate model integrations and a hydrological model. Climate Res., 23, 233-246. [MoS]

Shepherd, P., J. Tansey and H. Dowlatabadi, 2006: Context matters: what shapes adaptation to water stress in the Okanagan? Climatic Change, 78, 31-62. [JoC]

Sherif, M. and V. Singh, 1999: Effect of climate change on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Hydrol. Process., 13, 1277-1287. Clean

Shiklomanov, I.A. and V.Y. Georgievsky, 2002: Effect of anthropogenic climate change on hydrological regime and water resources. Climate Change and its Consequences. Nauka, St. Petersburg, 152-164 (in Russian). [NPR, SRC]

Shiklomanov, I.A. and J.C. Rodda, Eds., 2003: World Water Resources at the Beginning of the 21st Century. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 435 pp. [NPR, SRC]

Shiklomanov, I.A. and A.S. Vasiliev, Eds., 2004: Hydrometeorological Problems of the Caspian Sea Basin. Hydrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 435 pp. (in Russian). [NPR, SRC]

Simonovic, S.P. and L.H. Li, 2003: Methodology for assessment of climate change impacts on large- scale flood protection system. J. Water Res. Pl.–ASCE, 129, 361-371. Clean

Singh, P., 2003: Effect of warmer climate on the depletion of snowcovered area in the Satluj basin in the western Himalayan region. Hydrol. Sci. J., 48, 413-425. Clean

Singh, P. and N. Kumar, 1997: Impact assessment of climate change on the hydrological response of a snow and glacier melt runoff dominated Himalayan river. J. Hydrol., 193, 316-350. Clean

Singh, P. and L. Bengtsson, 2004: Hydrological sensitivity of a large Himalayan basin to climate change. Hydrol. Process., 18, 2363-2385. Clean

Sivapalan, M., G. Bloschl, R. Mertz and D. Gutknecht, 2005: Linking flood-frequency to long-term water balance: incorporating effects of seasonality. Water Resour. Res., 41, W06012, doi:10.1029/2004WR003439. Clean

Small, C. and R.J. Nicholls, 2003: A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones. J. Coastal Res., 19, 584-599. [ARC]

Smit, J. and J. Nasr, 1992: Urban agriculture for sustainable cities: using wastes and idle land and water bodies as resources. Environ. Urban., 4, 141-152. Clean

Soil and Water Conservation Society, 2003: Soil erosion and runoff from cropland. Report from the USA, Soil and Water Conservation Society, 63 pp. [NPR]

Souchere, V., O. Cerdan, N. Dubreuil, Y. Le Bissonnais and C. King, 2005: Modelling the impact of agri-environmental scenarios on runoff in a cultivated catchment Normandy, France. Catena, 61, 229-240. [MoS]

Soulsby, C., C. Gibbins, A. Wade, R. Smart and R. Helliwell, 2002: Water quality in the Scottish uplands: a hydrological perspective on catchment hydrochemistry. Sci. Total Environ., 294, 73-94. Clean

Southworth, J., J.C. Randolph, M. Habeck, O.C. Doering, R.A. Pfeifer, D. Gangadhar Rao and J.J. Johnston, 2000: Consequences of future climate change and changing climate variability on maize yields in the mid-western United States. Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 82, 139-158. [MoS]

Stainforth, D.A., T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D.J. Frame, J.A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. Martin, J.M. Murphy, C. Piani, D. Sexton, L.A. Smith, R.A. Spicer, A.J. Thorpe and M.R. Allen, 2005: Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433, 403-406. [JoC, MoS]

Stakhiv, E.Z., 1998: Policy implications of climate change impacts on water resources management. Water Policy, 1, 159-175. Clean

Stewart, I.T., D.R. Cayan and M.D. Dettinger, 2004: Changes in snowmelt runoff timing in western North America under a ‘business as usual’ climate change scenario. Climatic Change, 62, 217-232. [JoC, ARC]

Stone, M.C., R.H. Hotchkiss, C.M. Hubbard, T.A. Fontaine, L.O. Mearns and J.G. Arnold, 2001: Impacts of climate change on Missouri River Basin water yield. J. Am. Water Resour. As., 37, 1119-1129. [ARC]

Stott, P.A. and J.A. Kettleborough, 2002: Origins and estimates of uncertainty in prediction of twenty-first century temperature rise. Nature, 416, 723-726. [JoC, MoS]

Svendsen, M., 2005: Irrigation and River Basin Management: Options for Governance and Institutions. CABI Publishing, in association with the International Water Management Institute, Wallingford, 258 pp. [NPR]

Svensson, C. and D.A. Jones, 2005: Climate change impacts on the dependence between sea surge, precipitation and river flow around Britain. Proceedings of the 40th Defra Flood and Coastal Management Conference 2005, University of York, 5-7 July 2005, 6A.3.1-6A.3.10. [NPR]

Takahashi, K., Y. Matsuoka, Y. Shimada and H. Harasawa, 2001: Assessment of water resource problems under climate change: considering inter-annual variability of climate derived from GCM calculations. J. Global Environ. Eng., 7, 17-30. [ARC]

Tanaka, S.K., T. Zhu, J.R. Lund, R.E. Howitt, M.W. Jenkins, M.A. Pulido, M. Tauber, R.S. Ritzema and I.C. Ferreira, 2006: Climate warming and water management adaptation for California. Climatic Change, 76, 361-387. [JoC]

Tate, E., J. Sutcliffe, P. Conway and F. Farquharson, 2004: Water balance of Lake Victoria: update to 2000 and climate change modelling to 2100. Hydrol. Sci. J., 49, 563-574. [MoS]

Tebaldi, C., L.O. Mearns, D. Nychka and R.L. Smith, 2004: Regional probabilities of precipitation change: a Bayesian analysis of multi-model simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24213, doi:10.1029/2004GL021276. [JoC, MoS, ARC]

Tebaldi, C., R.L. Smith, D. Nychka and L.O. Mearns, 2005: Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: a Bayesian approach to the analysis of multi-model ensembles. J. Climate, 18, 1524-1540. [JoC, MoS, ARC]

Tebaldi, C., K. Hayhoe, J.M. Arblaster and G.A. Meehl, 2006: Going to the extremes: an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change, 79, 185-211. [JoC, MoS, ARC]

Thomson, A.M., R.A. Brown, N.J. Rosenberg, R. Srinivasan and R.C. Izaurralde, 2005a: Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: an integrated assessment. Part 4. Water resources. Climatic Change, 69, 67-88. [JoC]

Thomson, A.M., N.J. Rosenberg, R.C. Izaurralde and R.A. Brown, 2005b: Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: an integrated assessment. Part 5. Irrigated agriculture and national grain crop production. Climatic Change, 69, 89-105. [JoC]

Tiwari, D. and A. Dinar, 2002: Balancing future food demand and water supply: the role of economic incentives in irrigated agriculture. Q. J. Int. Agr., 41, 77-97. [MoS]

Tol, R.S.J., N. van der Grijp, A.A. Olsthoorn and P.E. van der Werff, 2003: Adapting to climate: a case study on riverine flood risks in the Netherlands. Risk Anal., 23, 575-583. [ARC]

Trenberth, K.E., A.G. Dai, R.M. Rasmussen and D.B. Parsons, 2003: The changing character of precipitation. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1205-1217. [PoC, JoC]

Trenberth, K.E., P.D. Jones, P.G. Ambenje, R. Bojariu, D.R. Easterling, A.M.G. Klein Tank, D.E. Parker, J.A. Renwick, F. Rahimzadeh, M.M. Rusticucci, B.J. Soden and P.-M. Zhai, 2007: Observations: surface and atmospheric change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 235-336. [NPR, PoC, 2007]

Triggs, J.M., B.A. Kimball, P.J. Pinter Jr., G.W. Wall, M.M. Conley, T.J. Brooks, R.L. LaMorte, N.R. Adam, M.J Ottman, A.D. Matthias, S.W. Leavitt and R.S. Cerveny, 2004: Free-air carbon dioxide enrichment effects on energy balance and evapotranspiration of sorghum. Agr. Forest Meteorol., 124, 63-79. Clean

UNDP [United Nations Development Programme], 2006: MDG Targets and Indicators [accessed 06.03.07: http://www.undp.org/mdg/goallist.shtml] [NPR]

United Nations, 2002: Johannesburg Plan of Implementation of the World Summit on Sustainable Development. United Nations, 72 pp. [NPR]

United Nations, 2003: World Water Development Report: Water for Life, Water for People. UNESCO, Paris, and Berghahn Books, Barcelona, Spain, 544 pp. [NPR]

United Nations, 2006: World Water Development Report 2: Water, a shared responsibility. UNESCO, Paris, 601 pp. [NPR]

United Nations Committee on Economic Social and Cultural Rights, 2003: General Comment No. 15 (2002). The Right to Water. E/C.12/2002/11, United Nations Social and Economic Council, 18 pp. [NPR]

US Department of the Interior, 2005: Water 2025: preventing crisis and conflict in the West. Status Report, 36 pp. [accessed 06.03.07: http://www.doi.gov/water 2025/Water%202025-08-05.pdf] [NPR]

US Global Change Research Program, 2000: Water: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. National Water Assessment Group, US Global Change Research Program, US Geological Survey and Pacific Institute, Washington, District ofColumbia, 160 pp. [NPR]

VanRheenen, N.T., A.W. Wood, R.N. Palmer and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2004: Potential implications of PCM climate change scenarios for Sacramento–San Joaquin River basin hydrology and water resources. Climatic Change, 62, 257-281. [JoC]

Vörösmarty, C.J., P.J. Green, J Salisbury and R.B. Lammers, 2000: Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science, 289, 284-288. [JoC]

Vuglinsky, V. and T. Gronskaya, 2005: Strategic Forecast up to 2010–2015 on the Effect of Expected Climate Changes on the Economy of Russia. ROS-HYDROMET, Moscow (in Russian). [NPR, MoS]

Wade, A., P. Whitehead, G. Hornberger and D. Snook, 2002: On modelling the flow controls on macrophyte and epiphyte dynamics in a lowland permeable catchment: the River Kennet, southern England. Sci. Total Environ., 282, 375-393. [MoS]

Walsh, C.L. and C.G. Kilsby, 2007: Implications of climate change on flow regime affecting Atlantic salmon. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sc., 11, 1127-1143. [2007]

Wang, H.J., Z.S. Yang, Y. Saito, J.P. Liu and X.X. Sun, 2006: Interannual and seasonal variation of the Huanghe (Yellow River) water discharge over the past 50 years: connections to impacts from ENSO events and dams. Global Planet. Change, 50, 212-225. [ARC]

Waters, D., W.E. Watt, J. Marsalek and B.C. Anderson, 2003: Adaptation of a storm drainage system to accommodate increased rainfall resulting from climate change. J. Environ. Plan. Manage., 46, 755-770. Clean

WDR, 2003: World Disaster Report: Focus on Ethics in Aid. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva, 240 pp. [NPR]

WDR, 2004: World Disaster Report: Focus on Community Resilience. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva, 240 pp. [NPR]

Wechsung, F., A. Becker and P. Gräfe, Eds., 2005: Auswirkungen des globalen Wandels auf Wasser, Umwelt und Gesellschaft im Elbegebiet. Weissensee-Verlag, Berlin, 416 pp. [NPR, SRC]

Wetherald, R.T. and S. Manabe, 2002: Simulation of hydrologic changes associated with global warming. J. Geophys. Res., 107(D19), 4379, doi:10.1029/ 2001JD001195. [JoC, MoS]

WHO, 2004: Guidelines for Drinking Water Quality: Volume 1, 3rd edn. World Health Organization, Geneva, 540 pp. [NPR]

WHO/UNICEF, 2000: Global Water Supply and Sanitation Assessment 2000 Report. World Health Organization with UNICEF, Geneva, 79 pp. [NPR]

Wichelns, D., D. Cone and G. Stuhr, 2002: Evaluating the impact of irrigation and drainage policies on agricultural sustainability. Irrig. Drain. Syst., 16, 1-14. Clean

Wilby, R.L., 2005: Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment. Hydrol. Process., 19, 3201-3219. [MoS, SRC]

Wilby, R.L., 2006: When and where might climate change be detectable in UK river flows? Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19407. [JoC, SRC]

Wilby, R.L. and I. Harris, 2006: A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low-flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resour. Res., 42, W02419, doi:10.1029/2005WR004065. [SRC]

Wilhite, D.A., 2000: Drought: A Global Assessment. Routledge, London: Vol 1, 396 pp; Vol 2, 304 pp. [NPR]

Wilhite, D.A., 2001: Moving beyond crisis management. Forum Appl Res Public Pol, 16, 20-28. Clean

Wilk, J. and D.A. Hughes, 2002: Simulating the impacts of land-use and climate change on water resource availability for a large south Indian catchment. Hydrol. Sci. J., 47, 19-30. [MoS]

Williams, W., 2001: Salinization: unplumbed salt in a parched landscape. Water Sci. Technol., 43(4), 85-91. Clean

Wisner, B. and J. Adams, Eds., 2002: Environmental Health in Emergencies and Disasters. WHO, Geneva, 272 pp. [NPR]

Wood, A.W., L.R. Leung, V. Sridhar and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2004: Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Climatic Change, 62, 189-216. [JoC, MoS]

World Bank, 2003: Water Resources Sector Strategy: Strategic Directions for World Bank Engagement. The World Bank, Washington, DC. [NPR]

World Commission on Dams, 2000: Dams and Development: A New Framework for Decision-Making. Earthscan, London. [NPR]

World Water Council, 2006: Final Report of the 4th World Water Forum. National Water Commission of Mexico, Mexico City, 262 pp. [NPR]

Yang, D., C. Li, H. Hu, Z. Lei, S. Yang, T. Kusuda, T. Koike and K. Musiake, 2004: Analysis of water resources variability in the Yellow River of China during the last half century using historical data. Water Resour. Res., 40, W06502, doi:10.1029/2003WR002763. [ARC]

Yao, H. and A. Georgakakos, 2001: Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios. J. Hydrol., 249, 176-196. [MoS]

Yarze, J.C. and M.P. Chase, 2000: E. coli O157:H7 – another waterborne outbreak! Am. J. Gastroenterol., 95, 1096. Clean

Young, R.A., 2005: Determining the Economic Value of Water: Concepts and Methods. Resources for the Future Press, Washington, District of Columbia, 300 pp. [NPR, MoS]

Zhang, G.H., M.A. Nearing and B.Y. Liu, 2005: Potential effects of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Yellow River basin of China. T. ASAE, 48, 511-517. [SRC]

Zhang, X.C. and M.A. Nearing, 2005: Impact of climate change on soil erosion, runoff, and wheat productivity in Central Oklahoma. Catena, 61, 185-195. [SRC]

Zhou, Y. and R.S.J. Tol, 2005: Evaluating the costs of desalination and water transport. Water Resour. Res., 41, 1-10. [ARC]

Zierl, B. and H. Bugmann, 2005: Global change impacts on hydrological processes in Alpine catchments. Water Resour. Res., 41,W02028.[ARC]

NOTE: In the Summary of Reviewer Comments,
Accepted includes only those responses that were unambiguously Accepted.
There are other categories of responses that we have not yet quantified
due to inconsistencies of usage.

Summary of Reviewer Comments - Second Order Draft

Reviewer	Total Comments	Accepted	IPCC Roles	Papers
Graham, LP	154	37	0	7
Government of Argentina	82	14	0	0
Canziani, OF	69	18	2	4
Mote, PW	69	10	0	8
Government of USA	58	10	0	0
Government of Korea	48	21	0	0
Beltaos, S	37	6	0	4
Trenberth, Kevin	34	2	0	0
Savard, MM	29	5	0	0
Kaser, G	25	5	1	6
Hanson, CE	24	4	1	2
Government of Canada	22	7	0	0
Goklany, IM	21	3	0	15
Llosa, Silvia	21	1	0	0
Mariotti, Annarita	20	4	0	0
Gerten, D	19	4	0	7
Government of Australia	18	1	0	0
Schumann, Andreas	17	0	0	0
Jeffrey, Paul	17	6	0	0
Sorooshian, Soroosh	14	3	0	0
de Loe, RC	14	0	0	2
Government of Ireland	14	0	0	0
Gleick, PH	14	5	0	3
de Wit, M	12	0	0	3
Government of Germany	11	1	0	0
Gerd, Morgenschweis	11	1	0	0
Liu, CR	10	1	1	3
Ragab, R	9	0	0	1
Usunoff, Eduardo	7	2	0	0
Fowler, Hayley	7	0	0	0
Lang, H	7	0	0	1
Howe, CW	6	0	0	3
Government of Finland	6	0	0	0
Milly, C	6	1	1	0
Kimball, BA	5	0	0	4
Government of China	5	1	0	0
Bergstrom, S	5	4	0	5
Gruenewald, Uwe	5	0	0	0
Kirshen, PH	4	1	0	9
Burn, Donald	3	0	0	0
Grabs, W	3	2	0	1
Government of Netherlands	2	0	0	0
Boroneant, Constanta	2	0	0	0
Government of Norway	2	0	0	0
Government of Austria	2	0	0	0
Government of Poland	1	0	0	0
Government of Czech Republic	1	0	0	0
Bernstein, Lenny	1	0	0	0
Government of France	1	0	0	0
Government of UK	1	0	0	0
Totals	975	180	6	88

Overview of Reviewer Comments - Second Order Draft

Reviewer Type	Total Comments	Accepted	% Accepted
Govt	274	55	20%
IPCC	513	101	19%
Indep	188	24	12%
Total	975	180	18%

Main AR4 Index | Working Group WG2 Index | Table of Contents | Authors | Executive Summary | Annotated Text | References | Reviewer Comments