With the exception of Chapter and Section headings, all coloured text has been inserted by AccessIPCC. The non-coloured text is the IPCC original.

A number of emails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia were published on the Internet in November 2009. This has provided a window into the world of climate science.

We have identified a number of key individuals involved in the emails whom we have designated as Persons of Concern [PoC]; a Journal in which a PoC has published has been designated as a Journal of Concern [JoC].

This is not to suggest that we believe such papers are necessarily flawed, but rather that, as Joseph Alcamo noted at Bali in October 2009, "as policymakers and the public begin to grasp the multi-billion dollar price tag for mitigating and adapting to climate change, we should expect a sharper questioning of the science behind climate policy".

References occur in a list at the end of each chapter. Citations are within the normal text of sections and paragraphs.

Definition of Tags Used

Tag	Explanation	Where Used	References	Citations
PoC	Person of Concern Key individual involved in CRU emails as defined in this spreadsheet. NOTE: we anticipate that this definition will be expanded as more data is coded.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	16	36
JoC	Journal of Concern A Journal which has published articles by one or more PoCs (Person of Concern)	References, Citations	273	469
MoS	Model or Simulation Reference appears to be a model or simulation, not observation or experiment	References, Citations	130	208
NPR	Non Peer Reviewed Reference has no Journal or no Volume or no Pages or it has Editors.	References, Citations	174	348
SRC	Self Reference Concern Author of a chapter containing references to own work.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	148	311
ARC	Paper authored or co-authored by person who is also in list of Authors of another chapter.	References, Citations	113	218
2007	Paper dated 2007, when IPCC policy stated cutoff was December 2005 with mid-February 2006 for exceptions.	References, Citations	18	53
Ambiguous	The short inline citation matched with more than one reference; however, AccessIPCC will link to the first reference found.	Citations	-	22
NotFound	The short inline citation was not matched with any reference. Believed to be caused by typing errors.	Citations	-	3
Clean	The reference was probably peer reviewed. The reference was dated before the cutoff (2005-2006). Its authors were not members of the Team. It was not published in a Journal of Concern. Its authors were not AR4 Authors.	References, Citations	303	352

Chapter Table of Contents

Title	Clean	Tagged	NotFound	Ambiguous
Chapter 4: Ecosystems, their Properties, Goods and Services	-	-	-	-
4.1 Introduction	4	31	-	2
4.1.1 Ecosystem goods and services	-	2	-	-
4.1.2 Key issues	9	17	-	-
4.2 Current sensitivities	-	-	-	-
4.2.1 Climatic variability and extremes	21	64	1	1
4.2.2 Other ecosystem change drivers	29	33	-	3
4.3 Assumptions about future trends	3	33	-	-
4.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities	-	-	-	-
4.4.1 Biogeochemical cycles and biotic feedback	23	119	1	3
4.4.10 Cross-biome impacts	11	75	1	-
4.4.11 Global synthesis including impacts on biodiversity	5	63	-	1
4.4.2 Deserts	34	59	-	2
4.4.3 Grasslands and savannas	30	35	-	5
4.4.4 Mediterranean ecosystems	18	32	-	-
4.4.5 Forests and woodlands	45	117	-	1
4.4.6 Tundra and Arctic/Antarctic ecosystems	8	69	-	2
4.4.7 Mountains	36	65	-	2
4.4.8 Freshwater wetlands, lakes and rivers	12	45	-	-
4.4.9 Oceans and shallow seas	34	119	-	-
4.5 Costs and valuation of ecosystem goods and services	13	30	-	-
4.6 Acclimation and adaptation: practices, options and constraints	2	2	-	-
4.6.1 Adaptation options	9	28	-	-
4.6.2 Assessing the effectiveness and costs of adaptation options	-	3	-	-
4.6.3 Implications for biodiversity	1	6	-	-
4.6.4 Interactions with other policies and policy implications	-	2	-	-
4.7 Implications for sustainable development	-	8	-	-
4.7.1 Ecosystems services and sustainable development	4	3	-	-
4.7.2 Subsistence livelihoods and indigenous peoples	1	7	-	-
4.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities	-	-	-	-
	-	-	-	-
Number of citations of various credibilities	352	1067	3	22
Percentages of citations of various credibilities	24.4%	73.9%	0.2%	1.5%

4.1 Introduction

An ecosystem can be practically defined as a dynamic complex of plant, animal and micro-organism communities, and the non-living environment, interacting as a functional unit (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Reid et al., 2005 [NPR, SRC] ). Ecosystems may be usefully identified through having strong interactions between components within their boundaries and weak interactions across boundaries ( Reid et al., 2005 [NPR, SRC] , part 2). Ecosystems are well recognised as critical in supporting human well-being ( Reid et al., 2005 [NPR, SRC] ), and the importance of their preservation under anthropogenic climate change is explicitly highlighted in Article 2 (The Objective) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

In this chapter the focus is on the properties, goods and services of non-intensively managed and unmanaged ecosystems and their components (as grouped by widely accepted functional and structural classifications, Figure 4.1 ), and their potential vulnerability to climate change as based on scenarios mainly from IPCC (see Chapter 2 and IPCC, 2007 [NPR, 2007] ). Certain ecosystem goods and services are treated in detail in other sectoral chapters (this volume): chapters 3 (water), 5 (food, fibre, fisheries), 6 (coasts) and 8 (health). Key findings from this chapter are further developed in the synthesis chapters 17 to 20 (this volume). Region-specific aspects of ecosystems are discussed in chapters 9 to 16 (this volume). This chapter is based on work published since the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (TAR) ( Gitay et al., 2001 [NPR, ARC] ). We do not summarise TAR findings here, but refer back to relevant TAR results, where appropriate, to indicate confirmation or revision of major findings.

Projecting the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is complicated by an uneven understanding of the interlinked temporal and spatial scales of ecosystem responses. Processes at large spatial scales, i.e., the biosphere at the global scale, are generally characterised by slow response times on the order of centuries, and even up to millennia ( Jansen et al., 2007 [NPR, PoC, 2007] ). However, it is also important to note that some large-scale responses in the palaeorecord ( Jansen et al., 2007 [NPR, PoC, 2007] ) and to current climate anomalies such as El Niño events may emerge at much shorter time-scales ( Holmgren et al., 2001 [Ambiguous] ;( Sarmiento and Gruber, 2002; ) Stenseth et al., 2002 [JoC] ; van der Werf et al., 2004 [JoC] ). At continental scales, biomes (see Glossary) respond at decadal to millennial time-scales (e.g., Davis, 1989 [JoC] ;( Prentice et al., 1991; ) Lischke et al., 2002 [MoS, SRC] ; Neilson et al., 2005 [MoS, SRC] ), and groups of organisms forming ecological communities at the regional scale have shorter response times of years to centuries. Responses of populations (i.e., interbreeding individuals of the same species) occur at intermediate temporal scales of months to centuries, and underpin changes in biodiversity. These include changes at the genetic level that may be adaptive, as demonstrated for example for trees ( Jump et al., 2006 [NPR] ) and corals ( Coles and Brown, 2003 [ARC] ). Fast physiological response times (i.e., seconds, hours, days, months) of micro-organisms, plants and animals operate at small scales from a leaf or organ to the cellular level; they underlie organism responses to environmental conditions, and are assessed here if they scale up to have a significant impact at broader spatial scales, or where the mechanistic understanding assists in assessing key thresholds in higher level responses.

The spatial distribution of ecosystems at biome scale has traditionally been explained only in terms of climate control ( Schimper, 1903 [NPR] ), but it is increasingly apparent that disturbance regimes such as fire or insects may strongly influence vegetation structure somewhat independently of climate (e.g., Andrew and Hughes, 2005 [SRC] ; Bond et al., 2005 [Ambiguous] ). Biomes are differentially sensitive to climatic change (e.g., Kirschbaum and Fischlin, 1996 [NPR, SRC] ; Sala et al., 2000 [JoC, SRC] ; Gitay et al., 2001 [NPR, ARC] ), with temperature-limited biomes prone to impacts of warming, and water-limited biomes prone to increasing levels of drought. Some, such as fire-dependent biomes, may be in a meta-stable state that can change rapidly under climate and other environmental changes ( Scheffer et al., 2001 [JoC] ;( Sankaran et al., 2005 ) ). Marine biome responses, too, have been shown at decadal scales ( Beaugrand et al., 2002 [JoC, ARC] ), with more rapid regime shifts within decades ( Edwards et al., 2002 [ARC] ; Richardson and Schoeman, 2004 [JoC] ; Edwards et al., 2006 [ARC] ). Biomes therefore provide a useful level of ecological organisation at which to summarise climate change impacts, being of large enough extent to conduct a global synthesis, yet having a response time relevant to anthropogenic climate change.

4.2 Current sensitivities

4.3 Assumptions about future trends

The work reviewed in this chapter is dependent on assumptions of various types that are important in assessing the level of confidence that can be associated with its results ( Moss and Schneider, 2000 [NPR, PoC, ARC] ), but can be challenging to quantify and aggregate. Assumptions and uncertainties associated with climate scenarios ( Randall et al., 2007 [NPR, 2007] ) are not considered here, other than to identify the greenhouse gas emission trends or socio-economic development pathways (e.g., SRES, Naki?enovi? et al., 2000 ) assumed in the literature we review (see also Table 4.1 , especially scaling methodology and associated uncertainties). Since the TAR, many global or regional scenarios have become available to quantify future impacts ( Christensen et al., 2002 [ARC] , 2007; Meehl et al., 2007 [NPR, ARC, 2007] ), and confidence in future climate projections has increased recently (Naki?enovi? et al., 2000; Randall et al., 2007 [NPR, 2007] ). However, many assumptions must be made, due to imperfect knowledge, in order to project ecosystem responses to climate scenarios. We provide here a brief outline and guide to the literature of those that are most relevant.

To project impacts of climate change on ecosystems there are basically three approaches: (i) correlative, (ii) mechanistic, and (iii) analogue approaches. For the correlative and mechanistic approaches, studies and insights from the present give rise to the assumption that the same relationships will hold in the future. Three modelling approaches in particular have provided relevant results since the TAR. Firstly, correlative models use knowledge of the spatial distribution of species to derive functions ( Guisan and Thuiller, 2005 [MoS, SRC] ) or algorithms ( Pearson et al., 2004 [MoS, ARC] ) that relate the probability of their occurrence to climatic and other factors ( Guisan and Zimmermann, 2000 [MoS, SRC] ). Criticised for assumptions of equilibrium between species and current climate, an inability to account for species interactions, lack of a physiological mechanism, and inability to account for population processes and migration (see Pearson and Dawson, 2003 [MoS] ;( Pearson, 2006 ) ), these methods have nonetheless proved capable of simulating known species range shifts in the distant ( Martinez-Meyer et al., 2004 [MoS] ) and recent ( Araújo et al., 2005 [MoS, ARC] ) past, and provide a pragmatic first-cut assessment of risk to species decline and extinction ( Thomas et al., 2004a [JoC, SRC] ). Secondly, mechanistic models include the modelling of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function. They are based on current understanding of energy, biomass, carbon, nutrient and water relations, and their interacting dynamics with and among species such as primary producers. Such approaches generate projections of future vegetation structure, e.g., as the likely balance of plant functional types (PFTs) after permitting competitive interaction and accounting for wildfire ( Woodward and Lomas, 2004b [MoS] ; Lucht et al., 2006 [SRC] ; Prentice et al., 2007 [NPR, SRC, 2007] ; but see Betts and Shugart, 2005 [NPR, ARC] , for a more complete discussion). Extrapolated to global scale, these are termed Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs, see Glossary). An equivalent approach for oceans is lacking (but see Field et al., 1998 [JoC, ARC] ). Thirdly, Earth system models have begun to incorporate more realistic and dynamic vegetation components, which quantify positive and negative biotic feedbacks by coupling a dynamic biosphere to atmospheric circulations with a focus on the global carbon cycle ( (Friedlingstein et al., 2003, ) 2006; Cox et al., 2004 [MoS, ARC] , 2006 ).

Ecosystem- and species-based models are typically applied at scales much finer than are resolved or reliably represented in global climate models. The requisite downscaling techniques of various types (statistical, dynamic) have matured and are increasingly used to provide the necessary spatio-temporal detail ( IPCC-TGCIA, 1999 [NPR] ; Mearns et al., 2003 [NPR, MoS, ARC] ; Wilby et al., 2004 [NPR, ARC] ; Christensen et al., 2007 [NPR, ARC, 2007] ). Physically consistent bioclimatic scenarios can now be derived for almost any region, including developing countries (e.g., Jones et al., 2005 [NPR, SRC] ) and complex, mountainous terrain (e.g., Gyalistras and Fischlin, 1999 [MoS, SRC] ; Hayhoe et al., 2004 [PoC, JoC, SRC] ). However, major uncertainties relating to downscaling remain in the impact projections presented in this chapter, centring mainly on soil water balance and weather extremes which are key to many ecosystem impacts, yet suffer from low confidence in scenarios for precipitation and climate variability, despite recent improvements ( Randall et al., 2007 [NPR, 2007] ).

Despite the recognised importance of multiple drivers of ecosystem change, they are rarely all included in current climate and ecosystem models used for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems ( Hansen et al., 2001 [SRC] ; Levy et al., 2004 [JoC, MoS] ;( Zebisch et al., 2004; ) Feddema et al., 2005 [JoC, MoS, ARC] ; Holman et al., 2005b [JoC, SRC] ; Pielke, 2005 [JoC] ). The explicit inclusion of non-climatic drivers and their associated interactions in analyses of future climate change impacts could lead to unexpected outcomes ( Hansen et al., 2001 [SRC] ; Sala, 2005 [NPR] ). Consequently, many impact studies of climate change that ignore land-use and other global change trends (see also Section 4.2.2 ) may represent inadequate estimates of projected ecosystem responses.

4.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities

The scope of this section satisfies that required by the IPCC plenary in relation to future impacts on properties, goods and services of major ecosystems and on biodiversity. However, to assess ecosystem goods and services more completely, issues relating to biogeochemical cycling and other supporting or regulating services are also deemed appropriate for consideration under this heading. Following reviews of impacts on individual ecosystems, impacts that cut across ecosystems (such as large-scale vegetation shifts and migratory species) are elaborated. Finally the overall implications for biodiversity are highlighted in a global synthesis. Within the relevant sub-sections, we describe briefly ecosystem properties, goods and services, we summarise key vulnerabilities as identified by the TAR, and then review what new information is available on impacts, focusing on supporting and regulating services (for provisioning services see Chapters 3 , 5 and 6 ).

4.5 Costs and valuation of ecosystem goods and services

There is growing interest in developing techniques for environmental accounting. To that end, definitions of ecosystem goods and services are currently fluid. For example, ecosystem services accrue to society in return for investing in or conserving natural capital ( Heal, 2007 [2007] ), or ecosystem services are ultimately the end products of nature, the aspects of nature that people make choices about ( (Boyd, 2006 ) ). Definitions aside, all humans clearly rely on ecosystem services ( Reid et al., 2005 [NPR, SRC] ). While many efforts have been made to use standard economic techniques to estimate the economic value of ecosystem goods and services ( Costanza et al., 1997 [JoC] , 2000; ( Costanza, 2000, ) 2001; Daily et al., 2000 [JoC] ; Giles, 2005 [JoC] ; Reid et al., 2005 [NPR, SRC] ), others argue that such efforts are not only largely futile and flawed ( (Pearce, 1998; ) ( Toman, 1998b; ) ( Bockstael et al., 2000; ) Pagiola et al., 2004 [NPR] ), but may actually provide society a disservice ( (Ludwig, 2000; ) ( Kremen, 2005 ) ). The estimates from these techniques range from unknown (incomparability cf. Chang, 1997 [NPR] ), or invaluable, or infinite ( (Toman, 1998b ) ) because of lack of human substitutes, to about 38*10¹² US$ per annum (updated to 2000 levels – Costanza et al., 1997 [JoC] ; Balmford et al., 2002 [JoC] ; Hassan et al., 2005 [NPR] ), which is larger but of similar magnitude than the global gross national product (GNP) of 31*10¹² US$ per annum ( 2000 levels). These monetary estimates are usually targeted at policy-makers to assist assessments of the economic benefits of the natural environment ( (Farber et al., 2006 ) ) in response to cost-benefit paradigms. Some argue ( Balmford et al., 2002 [JoC] , 2005; Reid et al., 2005 [NPR, SRC] ) that unless ecosystem values are recognised in economic terms, ecosystems will continue their decline, placing the planet’s ecological health at stake (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 [MoS, ARC] ). Others argue that ecosystems provide goods and services which are invaluable and need to be conserved on more fundamental principles, i.e., the precautionary principle of not jeopardising the conditions for a decent, healthy and secure human existence on this planet (e.g., ( Costanza et al., 2000; ) ( van den Bergh, 2004 ) ), or a moral and ethical responsibility to natural systems not to destroy them.

What is sometimes lost in the arguments is that natural capital (including ecosystem goods and services) is part of society’s capital assets ( Arrow et al., 2004 [PoC, JoC, ARC] ). The question then may be considered as whether one should maximise present value or try to achieve a measure of sustainability. In either case, it is the change in quantities of the capital stock that must be considered (including ecosystem services). One approach in considering valuation of ecosystem services is to calculate how much of one type of capital asset would be needed to compensate for the loss of one unit of another type of capital asset ( Arrow et al., 2004 [PoC, JoC, ARC] ). What is not disputed is that factoring in the full value of ecosystem goods and services, whether in monetary or non-monetary terms, distorts measures of economic wealth such that a country may be judged to be growing in wealth according to conventional indicators, while it actually becomes poorer due to the loss of natural resources ( Balmford et al., 2002 [JoC] ; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 [MoS, ARC] ; Mock, 2005 [NPR] p. 33-53.). Ignoring such aspects almost guarantees opportunity costs. For instance Balmford et al. 2002 [JoC] ) estimated a benefit-cost ratio of at least 100:1 for an effective global conservation programme setting aside 15% of the current Earth’s surface if all aspects conventionally ignored are factored in. Additionally, many sectors and industries depend directly or indirectly on ecosystems and their services. The impacts of climate change could hold enormous costs for forests and coastal marine systems, as well as for managed agricultural systems ( Epstein and Mills, 2005 [NPR, MoS, ARC] ; Stern, 2007 [NPR, 2007] ). Multiple industries, such as timber, fisheries, travel, tourism and agriculture, are threatened by disturbances caused by climate change. Impacts on these sectors will influence financial markets, insurance companies and large multinational investors ( Mills, 2005 [JoC, ARC] ).

The United Nations has recognised the need to develop integrated environmental and economic accounting. However, many difficulties remain, especially as ecosystems may be the most difficult of all environmental assets to quantify ( (Boyd, 2006 ) ). There is a growing recognition that national accounting procedures need to be modified to include values for ecosystem goods and services ( Heal, 2007 [2007] ). Outside of the techniques mentioned above (often using contingent valuation) others have argued for developing a Green GDP to describe the state of nature and its worth, or an Ecosystem Services Index to account for all of nature’s contributions to the welfare of human society ( Banzhaf and Boyd, 2005 [NPR, MoS] ;( Boyd, 2006 ) ). Ultimately, it may be developing economies that are the most sensitive to the direct impacts of climate change, because they are more dependent on ecosystems and agriculture ( Stern, 2007 [NPR, 2007] ). As such, it is the poor that depend most directly on ecosystem services. Thus the degradation of these systems and their services will ultimately exacerbate poverty, hunger and disease, and obstruct sustainable development (e.g., Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 [MoS, ARC] ; Mock, 2005 [NPR] ; Mooney et al., 2005 [JoC] ; Stern, 2007 [NPR, 2007] ).

4.6 Acclimation and adaptation: practices, options and constraints

Although climate change is a global issue, local efforts can help maintain and enhance resilience and limit some of the longer-term damages from climate change (e.g., Hughes et al., 2003 [MoS, SRC] ;( Singh, 2003; ) ( Opdam and Wascher, 2004 ) ). This section discusses adaptation options with respect to natural ecosystems. Adaptation of these ecosystems involves only reactive, autonomous responses to ongoing climate change, including changes in weather variability and extremes. However, ecosystem managers can proactively alter the context in which ecosystems develop. In this way they can improve the resilience, i.e., the coping capacity, of ecosystems (see Glossary). Such ecosystem management involves anticipatory adaptation options. Identifying adaptation responses and adaptation options is a rapidly developing field, so the discussion below is not exhaustive. However, one should realise that beyond certain levels of climate change ( Hansen et al., 2003 [NPR] ; Table 4.1 , Figure 4.4 ) impacts on ecosystems are severe and largely irreversible.

4.7 Implications for sustainable development

Over the past 50 years, humans have converted and modified natural ecosystems more rapidly and over larger areas than in any comparable period of human history (e.g., Steffen et al., 2004 [NPR] ). These changes have been driven by the rapidly growing demands for food, fish, freshwater, timber, fibre and fuel (e.g., Vitousek et al., 1997 [JoC] ) and have contributed to substantial net gains in human well-being and economic development, while resulting in a substantial and largely irreversible loss of biodiversity and degradation in ecosystems and their services ( Reid et al., 2005 [NPR, SRC] ).

The consequences of policies to address the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change at both the national and international level are not yet fully understood. There is growing evidence that significant impacts on the environment may result from perverse or unintended effects of policies from other sectors, which directly or indirectly have adverse consequences on ecosystems and other environmental processes ( Chopra et al., 2005 [NPR, SRC] ). Land re-distribution policies, for example, while designed to increase food self-sufficiency also contribute to reducing carbon sequestration and loss of biodiversity through extensive clear-cutting.

Effective mechanisms to analyse cross-sectoral impacts and to feed new scientific knowledge into policy-making are necessary ( Schneider, 2004 [PoC, JoC, ARC] ). There is substantial evidence to suggest that developing and implementing policies and strategies to reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change is closely linked to the availability of capacity to address current needs (e.g., Chanda, 2001 [NPR] ). Thus, prospects for successful adaptation to climate change will remain limited as long as factors (e.g., population growth, poverty and globalisation) that contribute to chronic vulnerability to, for example, drought and floods, are not resolved ( Kates, 2000 [JoC, ARC] ; Reid et al., 2005 [NPR, SRC] ).

4.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities

Key uncertainties listed here are those that limit our ability to project climate change impacts on ecosystems, but only if they have implications at sub-continental and higher spatial scales, are relevant for many species, populations and communities, or significantly weaken a modelling result. In terms of climate uncertainty, it is important to highlight that projections for precipitation carry a significantly higher uncertainty than temperature, yet play a major role for many projections obtained from modelling approaches. In relation to projecting climate change impacts on ecosystems, we find key sources of uncertainty to include:

• inadequate representation of the interactive coupling between ecosystems and the climate system and, furthermore, of the multiple interacting drivers of global change. This prevents a fully integrated assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystem services;
• major biotic feedbacks to the climate system, especially through trace gases from soils in all ecosystems, and methane from labile carbon stocks such as wetlands, peatlands, permafrost and yedoma;
• how aggregation within current DGVMs with respect to the functional role of individual species and the assumption of their instantaneous migration biases impact estimates;
• the net result of changing disturbance regimes (especially through fire, insects and land-use change) on biotic feedbacks to the atmosphere, ecosystem structure, function, biodiversity and ecosystem services;
• the magnitude of the CO₂-fertilisation effect in the terrestrial biosphere and its components over time;
• the limitations of climate envelope models used to project responses of individual species to climate changes, and for deriving estimations of species extinction risks;
• the synergistic role of invasive alien species in both biodiversity and ecosystem functioning;
• the effect of increasing surface ocean CO₂ and declining pH on marine productivity, biodiversity, biogeochemistry and ecosystem functioning;
• the impacts of interactions between climate change and changes in human use and management of ecosystems as well as other drivers of global environmental change.

Guided by the above, the following research needs can be identified as priorities for reducing uncertainties.

• Identify key vulnerabilities in permafrost–soil–vegetation interactions at high latitudes, and their potential feedback to the biosphere trace-gas composition. Recent estimates suggest that terrestrial permafrost contains more than 1,000 PgC, which is increasingly emitting CO₂ and more importantly, methane (e.g., Walter et al., 2006; Zimov et al., 2006). The implications of this for abrupt and significant climate forcing are significant (e.g., Schellnhuber, 2002; iLEAPS, 2005; Symon et al., 2005, p. 1015; Lelieveld, 2006; Zimov et al., 2006).
• More robust modelling of interactions between biota and their geophysical environment using several independently developed DGVMs and Earth-system models. Validation (Price et al., 2001) beyond model intercomparisons is required, especially also with respect to the methane cycle. The goal should be to narrow uncertainties relating to the vulnerability of the carbon sequestration potential of ecosystems including more realistic estimates of lagged and threshold responses (e.g., Scheffer et al., 2001; iLEAPS, 2005).
• More emphasis on precipitation projections (e.g., Handel and Risbey, 1992) and resulting water regime effects. These should emphasise interactions between vegetation and atmosphere, including CO₂-fertilisation effects, in mature forests in the Northern Hemisphere, seasonal tropical forests, and arid or semi-arid grassland and savannas (e.g., Jasienski et al., 1998; Karnosky, 2003).
• Improved understanding of the role of disturbance regimes, i.e., frequency and intensity of episodic events (drought, fire, insect outbreaks, diseases, floods and wind-storms) and that of alien species invasions, as they interact with ecosystem responses to climate change itself and pollution (e.g., Osmond et al., 2004; Opdam and Wascher, 2004).
• Development of integrated large spatial-scale remote sensing with long-term field studies (May, 1999b; Kräuchi et al., 2000; Morgan et al., 2001b; Osmond et al., 2004; Opdam and Wascher, 2004; Symon et al., 2005, p. 1019) to better address scale mismatches between the climate system and ecosystems (Root and Schneider, 1995).
• Studies on impacts of rising atmospheric CO₂ on ocean acidification, and warming on coral reefs and other marine systems (Coles and Brown, 2003; Anonymous, 2004), and widening the range of terrestrial ecosystems for which CO₂-fertilisation responses have been quantified (e.g., Bond et al., 2003).
• Validating species-specific climate envelope models by testing model projections against the plethora of range shifts observed in nature (e.g., Walther et al., 2001; Chapter 1 ).
• Advances in understanding the relationship between biodiversity and the resilience of ecosystem services at a scale relevant to human well-being, to quote Sir Robert May (1999a): “The relatively rudimentary state of ecological science prevents us from making reliable predictions about how much biological diversity we can lose before natural systems collapse and deprive us of services upon which we depend.”
• Improve identification of environmental key factors influencing ecosystem structures that determine functionality and provisioning services of ecosystems together with quantitative information on economic impacts (including implications for adaptation costs – Toman, 1998a; Winnett, 1998; Kremen, 2005; Symon et al., 2005, e.g., p. 1019).
• Integrative vulnerability studies on adaptive management responses to preserve biodiversity (including conservation and reservation management) and ecosystem services in relation to pressures from land-use change and climate change (Kappelle et al., 1999; Lorenzoni et al., 2005; Stenseth and Hurrell, 2005; Symon et al., 2005).

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