With the exception of Chapter and Section headings, all coloured text has been inserted by AccessIPCC. The non-coloured text is the IPCC original.

A number of emails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia were published on the Internet in November 2009. This has provided a window into the world of climate science.

We have identified a number of key individuals involved in the emails whom we have designated as Persons of Concern [PoC]; a Journal in which a PoC has published has been designated as a Journal of Concern [JoC].

This is not to suggest that we believe such papers are necessarily flawed, but rather that, as Joseph Alcamo noted at Bali in October 2009, "as policymakers and the public begin to grasp the multi-billion dollar price tag for mitigating and adapting to climate change, we should expect a sharper questioning of the science behind climate policy".

References occur in a list at the end of each chapter. Citations are within the normal text of sections and paragraphs.

Definition of Tags Used

Tag	Explanation	Where Used	References	Citations
PoC	Person of Concern Key individual involved in CRU emails as defined in this spreadsheet. NOTE: we anticipate that this definition will be expanded as more data is coded.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	33	56
JoC	Journal of Concern A Journal which has published articles by one or more PoCs (Person of Concern)	References, Citations	137	187
MoS	Model or Simulation Reference appears to be a model or simulation, not observation or experiment	References, Citations	37	44
NPR	Non Peer Reviewed Reference has no Journal or no Volume or no Pages or it has Editors.	References, Citations	81	155
SRC	Self Reference Concern Author of a chapter containing references to own work.	References, Citations, IPCC Roles	49	82
ARC	Paper authored or co-authored by person who is also in list of Authors of another chapter.	References, Citations	76	134
2007	Paper dated 2007, when IPCC policy stated cutoff was December 2005 with mid-February 2006 for exceptions.	References, Citations	21	82
Ambiguous	The short inline citation matched with more than one reference; however, AccessIPCC will link to the first reference found.	Citations	-	3
NotFound	The short inline citation was not matched with any reference. Believed to be caused by typing errors.	Citations	-	2
Clean	The reference was probably peer reviewed. The reference was dated before the cutoff (2005-2006). Its authors were not members of the Team. It was not published in a Journal of Concern. Its authors were not AR4 Authors.	References, Citations	33	34

Chapter Table of Contents

Title	Clean	Tagged	NotFound	Ambiguous
Chapter 19: Assessing Key Vulnerabilities and the Risk from Climate Change	-	-	-	-
19.1 Introduction	-	-	-	-
19.1.1 Purpose, scope and structure of the chapter	-	6	-	-
19.1.2 Conceptual framework for the identification and assessment of key vulnerabilities	-	-	-	-
19.1.2.1 Meaning of ‘key vulnerability’	-	9	-	-
19.1.2.2 Scientific assessment and value judgements	-	2	-	-
19.1.2.3 UNFCCC Article 2	4	7	-	-
19.1.2.4 Distribution and aggregation of impacts	4	6	-	-
19.1.2.5 Critical levels and thresholds	1	3	-	-
19.2 Criteria for selecting ‘key’ vulnerabilities	13	50	-	-
19.3 Identification and assessment of key vulnerabilities	-	-	-	-
19.3.1 Introduction to	-	-	-	-
19.3.2 Global social systems	-	1	-	-
19.3.2.1 Agriculture	-	3	-	-
19.3.2.2 Other market sectors	-	-	-	-
19.3.2.3 Aggregate market impacts	-	6	-	-
19.3.2.4 Distribution of market impacts	1	5	-	-
19.3.2.5 Societal systems	-	5	-	-
19.3.3 Regional vulnerabilities	-	6	-	-
19.3.4 Ecosystems and biodiversity	-	4	-	-
19.3.5 Geophysical systems	-	-	-	-
19.3.5.1. Global biogeochemical cycles	1	23	-	-
19.3.5.2 Deglaciation of West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets	-	37	-	-
19.3.5.3 Possible changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC)	2	57	-	-
19.3.6 Extreme events	1	12	-	-
19.3.7 Update on ‘Reasons for Concern’	1	33	-	1
19.4 Assessment of response strategies to avoid key vulnerabilities	-	4	-	1
19.4.1 Adaptation as a response strategy	-	12	-	-
19.4.2 Mitigation	-	2	-	-
19.4.2.1 Methodological approaches to the assessment of mitigation strategies	1	13	-	1
19.4.2.2 Scenario analysis and analysis of stabilisation targets	3	34	2	-
19.4.2.3 Guardrail analysis	-	8	-	-
19.4.2.4 Cost–benefit analysis	2	11	-	-
19.4.2.5 Cost-effectiveness analysis	-	6	-	-
19.4.3 Synthesis	-	-	-	-
19.4.4 Research needs	-	-	-	-
Number of citations of various credibilities	34	365	2	3
Percentages of citations of various credibilities	8.4%	90.3%	0.5%	0.7%

Executive summary

Climate change will lead to changes in geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems. An impact describes a specific change in a system caused by its exposure to climate change. Impacts may be judged to be harmful or beneficial. Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which these systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts. The concept of risk, which combines the magnitude of the impact with the probability of its occurrence, captures uncertainty in the underlying processes of climate change, exposure, impacts and adaptation. [ 19.1.1 ]

Many of these impacts, vulnerabilities and risks merit particular attention by policy-makers due to characteristics that might make them ‘key’. The identification of potential key vulner-abilities is intended to provide guidance to decision-makers for identifying levels and rates of climate change that may be associated with ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference’ (DAI) with the climate system, in the terminology of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Article 2 (see Box 19.1 ). Ultimately, the definition of DAI cannot be based on scientific arguments alone, but involves other judgements informed by the state of scientific knowledge. No single metric can adequately describe the diversity of key vulnerabilities, nor determine their ranking. [ 19.1.1 ]

This chapter identifies seven criteria from the literature that may be used to identify key vulnerabilities, and then describes some potential key vulnerabilities identified using these criteria. The criteria are [ 19.2 ]:

• magnitude of impacts,
• timing of impacts,
• persistence and reversibility of impacts,
• likelihood (estimates of uncertainty) of impacts and vulnerabilities and confidence in those estimates
• potential for adaptation
• distributional aspects of impacts and vulnerabilities
• importance of the system(s) at risk.

Key vulnerabilities are associated with many climate-sensitive systems, including food supply, infrastructure, health, water resources, coastal systems, ecosystems, global biogeochemical cycles, ice sheets and modes of oceanic and atmospheric circulation. [ 19.3 ]

General conclusions include the following [ 19.3 ].

• Some observed key impacts have been at least partly attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Among these are increases in human mortality, loss of glaciers, and increases in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme events.
• Global mean temperature changes of up to 2°C above 1990-2000 levels (see Box 19.2 ) would exacerbate current key impacts, such as those listed above (high confidence), and trigger others, such as reduced food security in many low-latitude nations (medium confidence). At the same time, some systems, such as global agricultural productivity, could benefit (low/medium confidence).
• Global mean temperature changes of 2 to 4°C above 1990-2000 levels would result in an increasing number of key impacts at all scales (high confidence), such as widespread loss of biodiversity, decreasing global agricultural productivity and commitment to widespread deglaciation of Greenland (high confidence) and West Antarctic (medium confidence) ice sheets.
• Global mean temperature changes greater than 4°C above 1990-2000 levels would lead to major increases in vulnerability (very high confidence), exceeding the adaptive capacity of many systems (very high confidence).
• Regions that are already at high risk from observed climate variability and climate change are more likely to be adversely affected in the near future by projected changes in climate and increases in the magnitude and/or frequency of already damaging extreme events.

The ‘reasons for concern’ identified in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) remain a viable framework in which to consider key vulnerabilities. Recent research has updated some of the findings from the TAR [ 19.3.7 ].

• There is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts of climate change on unique and vulnerable systems (such as polar and high-mountain communities and ecosystems), with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence).
• There is new evidence that observed climate change is likely to have already increased the risk of certain extreme events such as heatwaves, and it is more likely than not that warming has contributed to the intensification of some tropical cyclones, with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase (very high confidence).
• The distribution of impacts and vulnerabilities is still considered to be uneven, and low-latitude, less-developed areas are generally at greatest risk due to both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity; but there is new evidence that vulnerability to climate change is also highly variable within countries, including developed countries.
• There is some evidence that initial net market benefits from climate change will peak at a lower magnitude and sooner than was assumed for the TAR, and it is likely that there will be higher damages for larger magnitudes of global mean temperature increases than was estimated in the TAR.
• The literature offers more specific guidance on possible thresholds for initiating partial or near-complete deglaciation of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.

Adaptation can significantly reduce many potentially dangerous impacts of climate change and reduce the risk of many key vulnerabilities. However, the technical, financial and institutional capacity, and the actual planning and implementation of effective adaptation, is currently quite limited in many regions. In addition, the risk-reducing potential of planned adaptation is either very limited or very costly for some key vulnerabilities, such as loss of biodiversity, melting of mountain glaciers and disintegration of major ice sheets. [ 19.4.1 ]

A general conclusion on the basis of present understanding is that for market and social systems there is considerable adaptation potential, but the economic costs are potentially large, largely unknown and unequally distributed, as is the adaptation potential itself. For biological and geophysical systems, the adaptation potential is much less than in social and market systems. There is wide agreement that it will be much more difficult for both human and natural systems to adapt to larger magnitudes of global mean temperature change than to smaller ones, and that adaptation will be more difficult and/or costly for faster warming rates than for slower rates. [ 19.4.1 ]

Several conclusions appear robust across a diverse set of studies in the integrated assessment and mitigation literature [ 19.4.2 , 19.4.3 ].

• Given the uncertainties in factors such as climate sensitivity, regional climate change, vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity and the likelihood of bringing such capacity to bear, a risk-management framework emerges as a useful framework to address key vulnerabilities. However, the assignment of probabilities to specific key impacts is often very difficult, due to the large uncertainties involved.
• Actions to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions will reduce the risk associated with most key vulnerabilities. Postponement of such actions, in contrast, generally increases risks.
• Given current atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2007a) and the range of projections for future climate change, some key impacts (e.g., loss of species, partial deglaciation of major ice sheets) cannot be avoided with high confidence. The probability of initiating some large-scale events is very likely to continue to increase as long as greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature continue to increase.

19.1 Introduction

19.2 Criteria for selecting ‘key’ vulnerabilities

As previously discussed, determining which impacts of climate change are potentially ‘key’ and what is ‘dangerous’ is a dynamic process involving, inter alia, combining scientific knowledge with factual and normative elements ( Patwardhan et al., 2003 [NPR, PoC, SRC] ; Dessai et al., 2004 [JoC, ARC] ; Pittini and Rahman, 2004 [NPR] ). Largely factual or objective criteria include the scale, magnitude, timing and persistence of the harmful impact ( Parry et al., 1996 [JoC, ARC] ; Kenny et al., 2000 [JoC, MoS, ARC] ; Moss and Schneider, 2000 [NPR, PoC, SRC] ;( Goklany, 2002; ) Corfee-Morlot and Höhne, 2003 [JoC, SRC] ; Schneider, 2004 [PoC, JoC, SRC] ; Oppenheimer, 2005 [SRC] ). Normative and subjective elements are embedded in assessing the uniqueness and importance of the threatened system, equity considerations regarding the distribution of impacts, the degree of risk aversion, and assumptions regarding the feasibility and effectiveness of potential adaptations ( IPCC, 2001a [NPR] ; OECD, 2003 [NPR] ;( Pearce, 2003; ) Tol et al., 2004 [JoC, SRC] ). Normative criteria are influenced by the perception of risk, which depends on the cultural and social context (e.g., Slovic, 2000 [NPR] ; Oppenheimer and Todorov, 2006 [JoC, SRC] ). Some aspects of confidence in the climate change–impact relationship are factual, while others are subjective ( (Berger and Berry, 1988 ) ). In addition, the choice of which factual criteria to employ in assessing impacts has a normative component.

This chapter identifies seven criteria from the literature that may be used to identify key vulnerabilities, and then describes some potential key vulnerabilities identified using these criteria. The criteria are listed and explained in detail below:

• magnitude of impacts,
• timing of impacts,
• persistence and reversibility of impacts,
• likelihood (estimates of uncertainty) of impacts and vulnerabilities, and confidence in those estimates,
• potential for adaptation,
• distributional aspects of impacts and vulnerabilities,
• importance of the system(s) at risk.

Magnitude

Impacts of large magnitude are more likely to be evaluated as ‘key’ than impacts with more limited effects. The magnitude of an impact is determined by its scale (e.g., the area or number of people affected) and its intensity (e.g., the degree of damage caused). Therefore, many studies have associated key vulnerabilities or dangerous anthropogenic interference primarily with large-scale geophysical changes in the climate system.

Various aggregate metrics are used to describe the magnitude of climate impacts. The most widely used quantitative measures for climate impacts (see Chapter 20 and WGIII AR4 Chapter 3 ( Fisher et al., 2007 [NPR, 2007] )) are monetary units such as welfare, income or revenue losses (e.g., Nordhaus and Boyer, 2000 [NPR, MoS] ), costs of anticipating and adapting to certain biophysical impacts such as a large sea-level rise (e.g., Nicholls et al., 2005 [NPR, ARC] ), and estimates of people’s willingness to pay to avoid (or accept as compensation for) certain climate impacts (see, e.g., ( Li et al., 2004 ) ). Another aggregate, non-monetary indicator is the number of people affected by certain impacts such as food and water shortages, morbidity and mortality from diseases, and forced migration ( Barnett, 2003 [JoC] ; Arnell, 2004 [JoC, ARC] ; Parry et al., 2004 [NPR, JoC, ARC] ; van Lieshout et al., 2004 [JoC] ; Schär and Jendritzky, 2004 [JoC] ; Stott et al., 2004 [JoC] ). Climate impacts are also quantified in terms of the biophysical end-points, such as agricultural yield changes (see Chapter 5 Füssel et al., 2003 [JoC, SRC] ; Parry et al., 2004 [NPR, JoC, ARC] ) and species extinction numbers or rates (see Chapter 4 Thomas et al., 2004 [JoC, ARC] ). For some impacts, qualitative rankings of magnitude are more appropriate than quantitative ones. Qualitative methods have been applied to reflect social preferences related to the potential loss of cultural or national identity, loss of cultural heritage sites, and loss of biodiversity ( Schneider et al., 2000 [PoC, JoC, SRC] ).

Timing

A harmful impact is more likely to be considered ‘key’ if it is expected to happen soon rather than in the distant future ( Bazermann, 2005 [JoC, MoS] ; Weber, 2005 [JoC] ). Climate change in the 20th century has already led to numerous impacts on natural and social systems (see Chapter 1 ), some of which may be considered ‘key’. Impacts occurring in the distant future which are caused by nearer-term events or forcings (i.e., ‘commitment’), may also be considered ‘key’. An often-cited example of such ‘delayed irreversibility’ is the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet: it has been proposed that melting of ice shelves in the next 100 to 200 years may lead to gradual but irreversible deglaciation and a large sea-level rise over a much longer time-scale (see Section 19.3.5.2 Meehl et al., 2007 [NPR, ARC, 2007] ). Debates over an ‘appropriate’ rate of time preference for such events (i.e., discounting) are widespread in the integrated assessment literature (WGIII AR4 Chapter 2 : Halsnaes et al., 2007 [NPR, 2007] ), and can influence the extent to which a decision-maker might label such possibilities as ‘key’.

Another important aspect of timing is the rate at which impacts occur. In general, adverse impacts occurring suddenly (and surprisingly) would be perceived as more significant than the same impacts occurring gradually, as the potential for adaptation for both human and natural systems would be much more limited in the former case. Finally, very rapid change in a non-linear system can exacerbate other vulnerabilities (e.g., impacts on agriculture and nutrition can aggravate human vulnerability to disease), particularly where such rapid change curtails the ability of systems to prevent and prepare for particular kinds of impacts ( (Niemeyer et al., 2005 ) ).

Persistence and reversibility

A harmful impact is more likely to be considered ‘key’ if it is persistent or irreversible. Examples of impacts that could become key due to persistence include the emergence of near-permanent drought conditions (e.g., in semi-arid and arid regions in Africa – Nyong, 2005 [NPR, ARC] ; see Chapter 9 ) and intensified cycles of extreme flooding that were previously regarded as ‘one-off’ events (e.g., in parts of the Indian subcontinent; see Chapter 10 ).

Examples of climate impacts that are irreversible, at least on time-scales of many generations, include changes in regional or global biogeochemical cycles and land cover ( Denman et al., 2007 [NPR, 2007] ; see Section 19.3.5.1 ), the loss of major ice sheets ( Meehl et al., 2007 [NPR, ARC, 2007] ; see Section 19.3.5.2 ); the shutdown of the meridional overturning circulation ( Randall et al., 2007 [NPR, 2007] ; Meehl et al., 2007 [NPR, ARC, 2007] ; see Section 19.3.5.3 ), the extinction of species ( Thomas et al., 2004 [JoC, ARC] ; Lovejoy and Hannah, 2005 [NPR] ), and the loss of unique cultures ( Barnett and Adger, 2003 [JoC] ). The latter is illustrated by Small Island Nations at risk of submergence through sea-level rise (see Chapter 16 ) and the necessity for the Inuit of the North American Arctic (see Chapter 15 ) to cope with recession of the sea ice that is central to their socio-cultural environment.

Likelihood and confidence

Likelihood of impacts and our confidence in their assessment are two properties often used to characterise uncertainty of climate change and its impacts ( Moss and Schneider, 2000 [NPR, PoC, SRC] ; IPCC, 2007b [NPR, 2007] ). Likelihood is the probability of an outcome having occurred or occurring in the future; confidence is the subjective assessment that any statement about an outcome will prove correct. Uncertainty may be characterised by these properties individually or in combination. For example, in expert elicitations of subjective probabilities ( (Nordhaus, 1994; ) ( Morgan and Keith, 1995; ) Arnell et al., 2005 [ARC] ; Morgan et al., 2006 [JoC, MoS] ), likelihood of an outcome has been framed as the central value of a probability distribution, whereas confidence is reflected primarily by its spread (the lesser the spread, the higher the confidence). An impact characterised by high likelihood is more apt to be seen as ‘key’ than the same impact with a lower likelihood of occurrence. Since risk is defined as consequence (impact) multiplied by its likelihood (probability), the higher the probability of occurrence of an impact the higher its risk, and the more likely it would be considered ‘key’.

Potential for adaptation

To assess the potential harm caused by climate change, the ability of individuals, groups, societies and nature to adapt to or ameliorate adverse impacts must be considered (see Section 19.3.1 ; Chapter 17 ). The lower the availability and feasibility of effective adaptations, the more likely such impacts would be characterised as ‘key vulnerabilities’. The potential for adaptation to ameliorate the impacts of climate change differs between and within regions and sectors (e.g., O’Brien et al., 2004 [JoC, ARC] ). There is often considerable scope for adaptation in agriculture and in some other highly managed sectors. There is much less scope for adaptation to some impacts of sea-level rise such as land loss in low-lying river deltas, and there are no realistic options for preserving many endemic species in areas that become climatically unsuitable (see Chapter 17 ). Adaptation assessments need to consider not only the technical feasibility of certain adaptations but also the availability of required resources (which is often reduced in circumstances of poverty), the costs and side-effects of adaptation, the knowledge about those adaptations, their timeliness, the (dis-)incentives for adaptation actors to actually implement them, and their compatibility with individual or cultural preferences.

The adaptation literature (see Chapter 17 ) can be largely separated into two groups: one with a more favourable view of the potential for adaptation of social systems to climate change, and an opposite group that expresses less favourable views, stressing the limits to adaptation in dealing with large climate changes and the social, financial and technical obstacles that might inhibit the actual implementation of many adaptation options (see, e.g., the debate about the Ricardian climate change impacts methods – ( Mendelsohn et al., 1994; ) ( Cline, 1996; ) ( Mendelsohn and Nordhaus, 1996; ) ( Kaufmann, 1998; ) Hanemann, 2000 [JoC] ; Polsky and Easterling, 2001 [ARC] ;( Polsky, 2004; ) ( Schlenker et al., 2005 ) ). This chapter reports the range of views in the literature on adaptive capacity relevant for the assessment of key vulnerabilities, and notes that these very different views contribute to the large uncertainty that accompanies assessments of many key vulnerabilities.

Distribution

The distribution of climate impacts across regions and population groups raises important equity issues (see Section 19.1.2.4 for a detailed discussion). The literature concerning distributional impacts of climate change covers an increasingly broad range of categories, and includes, among others, income ( Tol et al., 2004 [JoC, SRC] ), gender ( Denton, 2002 [ARC] ; Lambrou and Laub, 2004 [NPR] ) and age ( Bunyavanich et al., 2003 [ARC] ), in addition to regional, national and sectoral groupings. Impacts and vulnerabilities that are highly heterogeneous or which have significant distributional consequences are likely to have higher salience, and therefore a greater chance of being considered as ‘key’.

Importance of the vulnerable system

A salient, though subjective, criterion for the identification of ‘key vulnerabilities’ is the importance of the vulnerable system or system property. Various societies and peoples may value the significance of impacts and vulnerabilities on human and natural systems differently. For example, the transformation of an existing natural ecosystem may be regarded as important if that ecosystem is the unique habitat of many endemic species or contains endangered charismatic species. On the other hand, if the livelihoods of many people depend crucially on the functioning of a system, this system may be regarded as more important than a similar system in an isolated area (e.g., a mountain snowpack system with large downstream use of the melt water versus an equally large snowpack system with only a small population downstream using the melt water).

19.3 Identification and assessment of key vulnerabilities

This section discusses what the authors have identified as possible key vulnerabilities based on the criteria specified in the Introduction and Section 19.2 , and on the literature on impacts that may be considered potentially ‘dangerous’ in the sense of Article 2. The key vulnerabilities identified in this section are, as noted earlier, not a comprehensive list but illustrate a range of impacts relevant for policy-makers. Section 19.3.1 introduces, in condensed tabular form, key vulnerabilities, organising them by type of system, i.e., market, social, ecological or geophysical. The following sections discuss some of the key vulnerabilities by type of system, and add discussions of extreme events and an update on the ‘reasons for concern’ framework from the TAR. Each sub-section is cross-referenced to the relevant sections of the Fourth Assessment Report as well as primary publications from which more detail can be obtained. As noted in Section 19.1.1 , the likelihood and confidence judgements in this section reflect the assessments of the authors of this chapter.

19.4 Assessment of response strategies to avoid key vulnerabilities

This section reviews the literature addressing the linkages between key vulnerabilities and response strategies in order to avoid or reduce them. This section is structured as follows. Section 19.4.1 reviews the literature on the role of adaptation to avoid key vulnerabilities. As discussed in Section 19.2 , the lack of adaptive capacity, or the inability to adapt, is one of the criteria relevant for the selection of key vulnerabilities. Section 19.4.2 reviews the literature that specifically addresses the avoidance of key vulnerabilities through mitigation of climate change. Section 19.4.3 synthesises the knowledge about avoiding key vulnerabilities of climate change.

The principal response strategies – mitigation of climate change and adaptation – are often portrayed as having largely different foci in terms of their characteristic spatial and temporal scales. Other important strategies include investing in gaining knowledge (e.g., improving predictions and the understanding of options) and investing in capacity-building (improving ability and tools to make good decisions under uncertainty). Finally, some have suggested geo-engineering as a backstop policy option (see, e.g., Izrael, 2005 [Ambiguous] ; Cicerone, 2006 [JoC] ; Crutzen, 2006 [JoC] ; Kiehl, 2006 [JoC] ; Wigley, 2006 [PoC, JoC] , for an update on this debate).

Given the integrating nature of this section at the interface between climate change impacts and vulnerabilities, mitigation, and adaptation, there are important links with other chapters of the IPCC AR4. Most importantly, WGII Chapter 17 discusses the role of adaptation to climate change; WGII Chapter 18 , WGIII Chapter 2 Section 2.5 and Chapter 3 Section 3.5 discuss the links between mitigation and adaptation; WGIII Chapter 1 Section 1.2 and Chapter 2 Section 2.2 discuss the characteristics of the challenge and some decision-making problems in responding to global climate change, respectively; WGII Chapter 2 Section 2.2.7 and WGIII Chapter 2 Section 2.3 discuss methods to address uncertainties in this context; WGIII Chapter 3 Section 3.3 and Chapter 3 Section 3.6 discuss climate change mitigation from a long-term and a short-term perspective, respectively; and WGII Chapter 2 Section 2.4.6 discusses methods of evaluating impacts associated with mitigation scenarios.

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NOTE: In the Summary of Reviewer Comments,
Accepted includes only those responses that were unambiguously Accepted.
There are other categories of responses that we have not yet quantified
due to inconsistencies of usage.

Summary of Reviewer Comments - Second Order Draft

Reviewer	Total Comments	Accepted	IPCC Roles	Papers
Government of USA	103	1	0	0
Goklany, IM	85	0	0	15
Harvey, D	67	2	0	1
Union, European	50	4	0	0
Hanson, CE	49	7	1	2
Tol, RSJ	33	1	1	63
Government of Pakistan	21	1	0	0
Nicholls, RJ	20	1	4	54
Wood, RA	20	2	0	9
Warren, R	19	0	2	6
Government of Australia	18	1	0	0
Kheshgi, HS	16	0	0	3
Government of Sweden	16	0	0	0
Hare, W	15	0	0	2
Manton, MJ	14	0	0	3
Government of Japan	14	1	0	0
Molau, U	13	0	0	2
Golub, Alexander	11	0	0	0
Hall, JW	11	3	1	18
Government of France	10	0	0	0
Paavola, J	9	0	0	7
Kellow, Aynsley	9	0	0	0
Reisinger, A	8	0	0	1
Government of Finland	8	0	0	0
Government of UK	7	0	0	0
Government of China	7	0	0	0
Scholze, M	6	0	0	3
Government of Argentina	6	0	0	0
Erda, LIN	6	0	1	2
Lough, JM	5	1	0	6
Government of Germany	3	0	0	0
Government of Spain	3	0	0	0
Marshall, P	3	0	0	4
Beggs, PJ	2	0	1	3
Government of Canada	2	0	0	0
Varis, Olli	1	0	0	0
Republic of Korea	1	0	0	0
Major, DC	1	0	1	4
Bernstein, Lenny	1	0	0	0
Hindmarsh, Richard	1	1	0	0
van Aalst, MK	1	0	0	10
Government of Norway	1	0	0	0
Totals	696	26	12	218

Overview of Reviewer Comments - Second Order Draft

Reviewer Type	Total Comments	Accepted	% Accepted
Govt	219	4	1%
IPCC	403	17	4%
Indep	74	5	6%
Total	696	26	3%

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